The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 24 February a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  17-Feb-17 24-Feb-17 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,801.80 1,833.90 32.10 1.8
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,237.60 1,256.90 19.30 1.6
Gold/silver ratio 68.687 68.537 -0.150 -0.2
Silver/gold ratio 0.0146 0.0146 0.0000 0.2
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 344.49 342.45 -2.04 -0.6
Dow in gold ounces 16.66 16.57 -0.10 -0.6
Dow in Silver ounces 1,144.64 1,135.38 -9.25 -0.8
Dow Industrials 20,624.05 20,821.76 197.71 1.0
S&P500 2,351.10 2,367.34 16.24 0.7
US dollar index 100.92 100.09 -0.83 -0.8
Platinum 1,003.50 1,026.50 23.00 2.3
Palladium 779.25 771.65 -7.60 -1.0

That's more like it. Silver & gold have roughly shouldered resistance aside for 1.8% & 1.6% gains. Platinum rose 2.3% but palladium fell 1%. Stocks keep rising, but more slowly all the time. Dollar index came 83 basis points closer to its true value this week, that is, zero.

Don't mess with me. If you say anything good about fiat money I'll bite ya!

The scrofulous US dollar, Tick on the hide of nations, crawled up 9 basis points (0.09%) to close at 101.09. Today's move in no way takes the dollar index out of harm's way. It's stuck in a downtrend. Still appears to be tracing out a head and shoulders top. Look at the chart, http://schrts.co/3ABtc5http://schrts.co/3ABtc5

Continuing dollar shrinkage can only help silver & gold. But then, dollar shrinkage is PERMANENT long term, since the whole reason for being of the Federal Reserve is to inflate/depreciate the dollar and manage inflation expectations so that the victims ever realize what's happening to them and remain in the trap.

If I could make all the central bankers and central banks into the world into one single fly, I'd swat 'em!

Stocks keep on climbing to new highs. Call it what you will, I interpret this as a BLOW OFF TOP. Weeping, wailing, gnashing of teeth and resolutions "never to do this again" will shortly abound.

Here's the Dow chart, http://schrts.co/30pcBW

It shows the Dow Industrials with Bollinger Bands. I explained yesterday that Bollinger Bands draw a range around a market's 20 day moving average that should catch 95% of all possible prices, above or below the 20 DMA (for you math-heads, plus/minus two standard deviations). Look, regardez, schaut mal: for 11 days the Dow has been hugging the top Band. Statistically, this is as likely as my being crushed by a Holstein cow hurtling down from the sky through the roof. In other words, the Dow is pushing it's luck way beyond anything likely to last.

Meanwhile, observe from the Dow in Gold chart, http://schrts.co/NW5ft1 and Dow in Silver, http://schrts.co/ohwLZP that both those indicators, after brief rises, have resumed their downward spiral. Think, mark, and inwardly digest: they have reversed downward while stocks are making new all time highs? Does that speak to you? Can anybody translate that?

Finally, finally! Gold pushed through $1,250, rising today $6.70 (0.5%) to $1,256.90, a new intraday high for the move and a new high close. 200 DMA stands at $1,265, about $8.00 overhead, and when gold pushes through that, 'twill attract friends & buyers. Chart: http://schrts.co/fYkSw0

Got so excited I forgot about silver! Comex silver rose 22.2¢ (1.2%) to 1833.9¢. Lo, also a new intraday high and new high close. Pull away, silver, pull away & fly!

Gold will meet some resistance at that 200 DMA, but more around $1,300 where it peaked & broke down in November. This move has at LEAST $1,300 in it, maybe more.

Silver wants (he said, anthropomorphizing) to push past 1880¢ where it broke down in November. After that it's eying 2000¢. Whoa! Silver chart's here, http://schrts.co/o96FnV

I will risk repeating myself: time to buy silver & gold. Cheapest forms right now are US 90% silver coins and gold US $5 and $10 commemoratives (minted 1986-2008) or Austrian 100 coronas or Mexican 50 pesos. Y'all better get moving before they run away from you. Ain't no braggin' rights for "One time I almost . . ."

On 24 February 1803 the US Supreme Court ruled itself to be the final interpreter of all constitutional issues. Y'all see anything wrong with that? No conflict of interests, is there? Where'd they find that in the constitution?

It feels like spring here. Daffodils and forsythia blooming. Lambs playing chase outside my window. About 80 degrees. I can't think about anything with spring in the air.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
24-Feb-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,256.90 6.70 0.5
Silver, $/oz 18.34 0.22 1.2
Gold/Silver Ratio 68.537 0.357 0.5
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0146 0.0002 1.2
Platinum 1,026.50 -9.15 -0.9
Palladium 771.65 -14.10 -1.8
S&P 500 2,367.34 3.53 0.1
Dow 20,821.76 11.44 0.1
Dow in GOLD $s 342.45 -1.61 -0.5
Dow in GOLD oz 16.57 -0.08 -0.5
Dow in SILVER oz 1,135.38 -13.28 -1.2
US Dollar Index 101.09 0.09 0.1
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,256.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,288.02 1,297.44 1,297.44
1/2 AE 0.50 646.63 661.60 1,323.20
1/4 AE 0.25 329.60 337.71 1,350.85
1/10 AE 0.10 131.84 137.60 1,375.98
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,222.48 1,231.48 1,256.36
British sovereign 0.24 298.02 311.02 1,321.25
French 20 franc 0.19 234.61 240.61 1,288.74
Krugerrand 1.00 1,270.42 1,280.42 1,280.42
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,266.60 1,279.60 1,279.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 722.55 659.72 1,319.43
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 320.43 336.14 1,344.56
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 133.20 136.97 1,369.69
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,501.32 1,512.32 1,254.31
.9999 bar 1.00 1,256.60 1,268.60 1,268.60
SPOT SILVER: 18.35      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 16.00 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 13,009.43 13,366.93 18.70
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,220.03 5,370.03 18.20
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,824.50 1,849.50 18.50
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 184.95 189.95 19.00
1 oz .999 round 1.00 18.60 18.90 18.90
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 19.35 20.60 20.60
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,026.50      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,021.50 1,066.50 1,066.50
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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