The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 17 March a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  10-Mar-17 17-Mar-17 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,688.30 1,737.90 49.60 2.9
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,200.70 1,229.80 29.10 2.4
Gold/silver ratio 71.119 70.764 -0.355 -0.5
Silver/gold ratio 0.0141 0.0141 0.0001 0.5
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 359.88 351.56 -8.32 -2.3
Dow in gold ounces 17.41 17.01 -0.40 -2.3
Dow in Silver ounces 1,238.11 1,203.44 -34.67 -2.8
Dow Industrials 20,902.98 20,914.62 11.64 0.1
S&P500 2,372.60 2,378.25 5.65 0.2
US dollar index 101.06 101.13 0.07 0.1
Platinum 936.90 962.00 25.10 2.7
Palladium 746.00 777.80 31.80 4.3

I reckon every dog has his day, and this week was silver & gold's. They undid nearly all the damage of the past two weeks. For all the burst of speed this week, stocks broke their accelerator cable & ended the week with infinitesimal gains. US dollar index, for all its bluster, swirled down the drain. Platinum & palladium marched briskly ahead.

US dollar index threatened to rise, but with the Fed's announced interest rate rise, it shattered like a clay flower pot dropped off a second story ledge. Looks like it rose 7 basis points for the week, but in truth it sank 154 basis points off the weeks' high. Chart's here,

Dollar index, parasite on nations, vampire on the world's jugular, scourge of the American working & middle class, is finishing up a head & shoulders top that now is only about 100 basis points above the neckline & breakdown. Breaching the neckline will take the dollar on a trip to 97.5 if not 94. Yes, yes, this will help gold.

Stocks had one good day off the FOMC's interest rate announcement. Dow jumped 113 on Wednesday then gave back 36 on Thursday & Friday. Today the Dow ended at 20,914.62, 19.93 lighter than yesterday (-0.1%). S&P500 closed at 2,378.23, 3.13 shy of yesterday (-0.13%). MACD & RSI indicators have both turned down. Whoa, look at that: Volume surged hugely today as price fell. March's clock is ticking, & I expect some sort of break before it stops.

Look at the Dow in Gold chart:

There was already on the chart (what I was calling) a double top between December 2015 & December 2016. Now lately the DiG has made a lower high and formed a cattywampus even-sided triangle (reckon that makes it an UNeven-sided triangle). Key is support from the December 2015 top at 16.85 oz. I am patient, I can wait.

Here's the Dow in Silver, Pattern is similar to Dow in Gold, but the double top is nearly exactly perfect. Lower high came this week. Appears inclined to turn down.

The FOMC's announcement it was raising the Federal Fuds (make that "Funds") rate was just the tonic gold & silver needed to vault higher. Once that miasmic threat of an interest rate rise became a fact, it evaporated.

Today silver rose 0.5% of 8.3 to 1737.9¢. Comex gold rose $3.30 (0.3%) to 1,229.80.

Here's the gold chart,

Ahh, we're measuring inches here while soon we will measure leagues. MACD & RSI have turned up, and gold has cleared resistance at the bowl lip, closed above its 50 DMA & today its 20 DMA. Alas, all the universe is progress or regress, so gold must continue next week to improve this ground. I think it will, although the Trumpophoria is pushing against it. Y'alll knew what I mean, the idea that "Trump's been elected & he'll make everything hunky-dory again." Y'all wish. I do, too.

Silver's chart is right here,

Silver has all the same positives going for it as gold. Oh, it hasn't quite cleared its 20 DMA yet, but has everything else under control direction will be higher for a while. After it clears 1750¢, next test doesn't come until 1850¢.

Gold & silver buyers have been thrown an easy ball -- better swing at it.

More from Susan's prayer journal: She prayed for a "cheerful expectation" of what God would do. Imagine watching with joy every day for God's great works & daily miracles.

God grant us all that grace!

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
17-Mar-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,229.80 3.30 0.3
Silver, $/oz 17.38 0.08 0.5
Gold/Silver Ratio 70.764 0.187 0.3
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0141 0.0001 0.5
Platinum 962.00 4.20 0.4
Palladium 777.80 9.15 1.2
S&P 500 2,378.25 -3.13 -0.1
Dow 20,914.62 -19.93 -0.1
Dow in GOLD $s 351.56 -1.25 -0.4
Dow in GOLD oz 17.01 -0.06 -0.4
Dow in SILVER oz 1,203.44 -6.93 -0.6
US Dollar Index 100.18 -0.39 -0.4
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,228.80      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,254.60 1,268.74 1,268.74
1/2 AE 0.50 632.32 646.96 1,293.93
1/4 AE 0.25 322.30 330.24 1,320.96
1/10 AE 0.10 128.92 134.55 1,345.54
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,195.44 1,204.44 1,228.77
British sovereign 0.24 291.43 304.43 1,293.24
French 20 franc 0.19 229.42 235.42 1,260.94
Krugerrand 1.00 1,241.09 1,251.09 1,251.09
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,238.80 1,251.80 1,251.80
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 706.56 645.12 1,290.24
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 313.34 328.70 1,314.82
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 130.25 133.94 1,339.39
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,470.33 1,481.33 1,228.61
.9999 bar 1.00 1,228.80 1,240.80 1,240.80
SPOT SILVER: 17.36      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 26.00 33.99
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 16.00 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,269.40 12,626.90 17.66
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,929.45 5,079.45 17.22
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,726.00 1,751.00 17.51
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 175.10 180.10 18.01
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.61 17.91 17.91
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.36 19.61 19.61
SPOT PLATINUM: 962.00      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 957.00 1,002.00 1,002.00
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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