The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 22 March a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

Little changed today, but then little change was expected or likely after yesterday's stock carnage. Dow paused & lost only 6.71 (0.03%) to 20,661.30. S&P500 rose 4.43 (0.2%) to 2,348.45, but remains below the 2,354 must hold level.

Here's a 15 month S&P500 chart that shows the year long rising wedge,

The "throwover" that began in February above the upper wedge boundary is typical behavior of tops. Yesterday it closed back within the wedge, bad juju for stocks. There remaineth a slim chance that stocks might hit their 50 day moving average and rally, but yesterday's huge fall, 238 points, largest of this year, argues against that. Looks like stock prices will work their way earthward.

US dollar index sank another 15 basis points to 99.47, but that changeth naught. Must pierce the neckline a 99 for a breakdown.

Comex gold rose $3.20 (0.3%) to $1,249.30 while silver shaved off half a cent to 1754.5¢.

This is not happy action. Silver is falling behind gold, gainsaying gold's rally. At the 20 Day moving average silver has stalled. Rotten -- needs to bust through 1760¢ fast.

I'm none too charmed by gold today, either. Stopping 70¢ short of $1,250 looks pusillanimous. It did that on a lazy, $7.60 daily range, too. Where's the energy?

Interest rates continue to fall. There's trouble out there over the horizon.

On 22 March 1790 Thomas Jefferson became the first US secretary of state. His opposite number was Alexander Hamilton as secretary of the treasury.

These two stayed at loggerheads. Hamilton was the lackey of banks & big business, always angling for a central bank. Jefferson saw America's strength in a wide distribution of wealth, farmers, and small business, without much banking. All of American history can be viewed as a battle between those two factions for dominance, big business & banks against agrarianism. Unfortunately Hamiltonians won during the War Between the States. The war created the great northern fortunes & an embryonic central bank was created. After the war the corporations & banks were turned loose to loot the country, which they accomplished with gusto. The 1913 founding of the Federal Reserve put the capstone on the bank's great pyramid of power.

But nothing sublunary lasts forever.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
22-Mar-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,249.30 3.20 0.26%
Silver, $/oz 17.55 -0.01 -0.03%
Gold/Silver Ratio 71.205 0.203 0.29%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0140 -0.0000 -0.28%
Platinum 961.10 -9.50 -0.98%
Palladium 791.45 1.80 0.23%
S&P 500 2,348.45 -12.65 -0.54%
Dow 20,661.30 -6.71 -0.03%
Dow in GOLD $s 341.88 -0.99 -0.29%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.54 -0.05 -0.29%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,177.62 -0.05 -0.00%
US Dollar Index 99.47 -0.15 -0.15%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,247.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,274.11 1,288.46 1,288.46
1/2 AE 0.50 635.92 658.27 1,316.53
1/4 AE 0.25 321.08 334.75 1,339.00
1/10 AE 0.10 128.43 136.40 1,363.95
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,214.02 1,223.02 1,247.72
British sovereign 0.24 295.96 308.96 1,312.48
French 20 franc 0.19 232.98 238.98 1,280.04
Krugerrand 1.00 1,259.13 1,269.13 1,269.13
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,257.90 1,270.90 1,270.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 717.54 655.15 1,310.30
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 318.21 333.81 1,335.25
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 132.28 136.02 1,360.21
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,490.93 1,501.93 1,245.69
.9999 bar 1.00 1,247.90 1,259.90 1,259.90
SPOT SILVER: 17.51      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.25 33.01
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.50 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,305.15 12,662.65 17.71
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,973.70 5,123.70 17.37
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,741.00 1,766.00 17.66
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 176.60 181.60 18.16
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.76 18.06 18.06
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 19.01 19.66 19.66
SPOT PLATINUM: 961.10      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 956.10 1,001.10 1,001.10
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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