The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 27 March a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

A little misunderstanding floats around among my readers. Some of you subscribe to my commentary through, which by permission has republished my commentaries for years, but it's not my website. Therefore it takes advertising from gold & silver dealers, who are my competition because I am a gold and silver dealer, not merely an analyst, commentator, or nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee.

I don't say anything good or bad about my competition, I only point out that we do NOT trade over the internet ON PURPOSE. To enter an order, a real, live human being must call us, and talk to a real, live human being. We want to know who we are dealing with. We offer personalized service, guidance, & education for metals buyers, plus we are -- far as I know -- the ONLY dealer who can help you trade silver-to-silver and gold-to-silver spreads to increase your ounces without adding any more money to your investment. Given that our services usually pay our tee-tiny commission several times over, I don't aim to be the WalMart of gold and silver prices. However, when I occasionally check, I find our prices are right there with others -- AND we can save you money by guiding you into genuine low premium bargains.

As my old First Sergeant used to say, "A word to the wise is suffice."

Several markets are approaching Fish or Cut Bait crossroads where they will either fail big or take off.

US dollar index fell 44 basis points to 99 - the cliff-hanging, fingernail-chewing limit of support. Here's the chart,

The low at 98.67 punched clean through that support, but the dollar index made a V-bottom and came back. Mark also: it is near the 200 day moving average at 98.44. That 200 DMA is a frequent correction target, so the dollar might reverse upward here. On the other hand, if it falls through 99 & the 200 DMA, it will ring up 97.50.

Dollar weakness sent the euro breaking out through its downtrend line & soaring through lateral support to the overhead 200 DMA -- mirror image of the US dollar. Can the European Criminal Bank squirt enough monetary heroin into the system to drive the euro higher? Or will it fail here? Stay tuned.

Nor was the yen backwards, either.

Yen had already broken out upside through the downtrend line & the top boundary of its trading range. Longing to go higher still.

Stocks couldn't make up their mind. Nasdaq & Nasdaq-100 rose a little (0.2%) while the Dow & S&P500 fell. Dow lost 45.74 (0.22%) to close at 20,550.98. S&P500 backed up 2.39 (0.1%) to 2,341.59. Here's the S&P500 chart,

Like the Dow the S&P500 cut into but closed not under its 50 day moving average. If stocks are merely consolidating in an ongoing rally, the 50 DMA would be the place to turn up again. If stocks cannot hold the 50 DMA, they will learn how a hamster feels when dropped from a 747 Jumbo Jet.

Silver & gold today acted like my dog Bridget when the battery dies in her electric fence collar: they crossed the invisible line. Silver leapt 36¢ (2%) to 1808¢ on Comex while gold jumped $7.50 (0.6%). Here's silver,

Building on Friday's 1772¢ close, silver began the day (midnight) about 1785¢ and climbed steadilythrough the day, 45° angle. It muscled thru resistance at 1800¢, but stopped at the 200 DMA, 1808¢.

Here we go again, the crossroads. If silver intends to drop further, it will fail to penetrate the 200 DMA. If it can punch through the 200 DMA, then 1900¢ and higher lies ahead.

Now look at gold's chart,

Gold's $1,261 high didn't quite reach the $1,262.76 200 DMA. More to the point, gold must beat that last high at $1,264.90. This sloth must be cured, or gold will turn its back & flee.

There it is: stocks, US dollar index, silver & gold are all at critical barriers that will either make them or break them. Tomorrow ought to be fun.

Do not despise the day of small things. We can't see the beginning from the end. Today in Susan's prayer journal I found an uncharacteristically diffident entry. She was wondering what she had accomplished with her life, just taking care of routine things. Did it all amount to anything?

Mercy, how could she think that? She bore & raised seven children & must have taken care of a Mt. Everest of routine things. But fulfilling routine duties faithfully, a world is built.

Scratching around for breakfast this morning I found some of my homemade raw buttermilk & pulled frozen blueberries out of the freezer to make a smoothie. Every spring Susan would buy boxes of fresh blueberries from a local grower & freeze them. By her faithful routine duties, Susan fed me again this morning. Who can know what else her "routine duties" accomplished in God's kingdom?

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
27-Mar-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,255.70 7.50 0.60%
Silver, $/oz 18.08 0.36 2.03%
Gold/Silver Ratio 69.452 -0.988 -1.40%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0144 0.0002 1.42%
Platinum 969.00 1.80 0.19%
Palladium 798.00 -14.85 -1.83%
S&P 500 2,341.59 -12.65 -0.54%
Dow 20,550.98 -45.75 -0.22%
Dow in GOLD $s 338.32 -2.79 -0.82%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.37 -0.13 -0.82%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,136.67 -25.67 -2.21%
US Dollar Index 99.00 -0.44 -0.44%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,254.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,279.69 1,295.37 1,295.37
1/2 AE 0.50 639.34 661.80 1,323.60
1/4 AE 0.25 322.80 336.55 1,346.19
1/10 AE 0.10 129.12 137.13 1,371.28
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,220.54 1,229.54 1,254.37
British sovereign 0.24 297.55 310.55 1,319.23
French 20 franc 0.19 234.23 240.23 1,286.74
Krugerrand 1.00 1,267.15 1,277.15 1,277.15
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,264.60 1,277.60 1,277.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 721.40 658.67 1,317.33
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 319.92 335.61 1,342.42
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 132.99 136.75 1,367.51
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,501.20 1,512.20 1,254.21
.9999 bar 1.00 1,254.60 1,266.60 1,266.60
SPOT SILVER: 18.09      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.25 33.01
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.50 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,609.03 12,966.53 18.14
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,143.33 5,293.33 17.94
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,798.50 1,823.50 18.24
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 182.35 187.35 18.74
1 oz .999 round 1.00 18.34 18.64 18.64
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 19.59 20.24 20.24
SPOT PLATINUM: 969.00      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 964.00 1,009.00 1,009.00
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Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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