The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 6 April a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

A leetle warning before I crank up.

Pool accounts have I ever warned against. These are accounts that dealers offer where you can buy a little bit of silver or gold (or a lot) and keep it in a account pooled with other folk's metals. Sounds, convenient, low cost, no bother cause you never take delivery or pay shipping.

Whoops. Only drawback is that when you try to pull your stuff out of the pool, turns out the company is underwater, & you get nothing but a lesson.

Ask me if I care which company with which big blowy internet reputation is offering the pool? Not a micro-whit. All pools are subject to the "banker's temptation," namely, to use the metal deposited for his own purposes -- what his is his, & what's yours is his, too.

But in the last few days a pool has been drained by yet another pump: the yankee government. Seems a big internet pool purveyor had a smelting operation in Miami & was less than careful about vetting its South American customers. Result was a government investigation & the attack the Nice Government Men usually make, seizing all the property. Yep, they seized the stuff backing the pool accounts, too, so those diving into the pool today hit a concrete bottom.

Hear my words: DO NOT buy silver & gold through pool accounts. Buy physical & take possession. Forget the pools, they ain't cheap if they take all your money. (Y'all can always call us at 888-218-9226 & buy physical gold & silver -- and get it in your own hands.)

On to markets!

Something's going to happen, something's going to give. This flatlining in gold & the dollar won't go on much longer. Today the US dollar index rose 13 basis points (0.13%) to 100.57, but remains beneath its 50 day moving average at 100.60. It will pass or fail here shortly at that 50 DMA.

Stocks bounced with all the enthusiasm of a dead armadillo. Dow rose 14.80 (0.07%) to 20,662.95 while the S&P500 clumb 4.54 (0.19%) to 2,357.49. Behold, the S&P500 chart,

Mark, dear readers, how the 20 DMA above is converging viselike on the 50 DMA below as the S&P500 is squeezed in between. Can't keep up much longer. What's that pattern the S&P500 hath formed? Why, it's an even sided triangle portending a break one way or the other, up or down. Give the downtrend since 1 March and the axiom that "a trend in force remains in force until broken," odds are the breakout will point soil-ward.

But what do I know, a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee? I consider myself a stock investor because I can look out my winder here & see 50 sheep & 40 lambs. Ain't got a lick uh sinse.

Gold & silver keep blowin' hot & cold out of both sides of their mouths, like the feller who kilt his parents then threw himself on the mercy of the court 'cause he was an orphan!

On Comex today gold gained $4.90 (0.4%) over yesterday's close, ending at $1,250.30, but remember that yesterday's low close was followed by a spurt up to $1,255 in the aftermarket, so gold didn't hold onto all of yesterday's late gains. Silver today added 5.9¢ to 1822.5¢. Twas 1828.5¢ in yesterday's aftermarket.

Daily gold is tangled in the briars of its 200 DMA at 1,261.44, but that's not all it's fighting. The 50 month moving average stands at $1,247.39 & the 200 week MA at $1,236. If gold can battle its way through $1,265 it will pull away from all those lead weights & concrete boots & rally. Watch the dollar index. I think both gold & the dollar index have traded flat because no big change has taken place. Now Washington has started beating its war drums. That might be the catalyst to move markets, sad as that is.

One thing about spread trading (swapping from silver to gold or silver to silver) is that when the opportunity pitches, you'd better swing, because it won't last. Right now the premium on US 90% is zero. Folks who swapped 90% coin for 100 oz bars & gained 20% more ounces in 2015 ought to set themselves up for another go-round by swapping bars into 90% now. Yes, yes, I know that will cost you 3 or 4% in silver, but it will also position you for another swapping gain when and if the 90% premium returns. I don't believe any other dealer in the country offers these trades. If so, they certainly don't offer them with commission on one side of the trade only as we do.

If you need a refresher in thankfulness or humility, I suggest you go to a Physical Therapy clinic near you. Like me, you may be hobbling around with some light & passing trial, but there you will see people working through REAL trial & pains, & with cheerful bravery. Your heart will be flooded with gratitude to God for your health, and quiet acceptance.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
6-Apr-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,250.30 4.90 0.39%
Silver, $/oz 18.23 0.06 0.33%
Gold/Silver Ratio 68.604 0.044 0.06%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0146 -0.0000 -0.06%
Platinum 955.70 -0.70 -0.07%
Palladium 803.95 -3.80 -0.47%
S&P 500 2,357.49 -12.65 -0.53%
Dow 20,662.95 14.80 0.07%
Dow in GOLD $s 341.63 -1.10 -0.32%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.53 -0.05 -0.32%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,133.77 -2.92 -0.26%
US Dollar Index 100.57 0.13 0.13%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,250.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,276.86 1,291.24 1,291.24
1/2 AE 0.50 637.30 659.69 1,319.38
1/4 AE 0.25 321.77 335.47 1,341.89
1/10 AE 0.10 128.71 136.69 1,366.91
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,216.64 1,225.64 1,250.40
British sovereign 0.24 296.60 309.60 1,315.20
French 20 franc 0.19 233.49 239.49 1,282.74
Krugerrand 1.00 1,261.86 1,271.86 1,271.86
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,260.60 1,273.60 1,273.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 719.10 656.57 1,313.13
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 318.90 334.54 1,338.14
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 132.56 136.32 1,363.15
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,496.42 1,507.42 1,250.24
.9999 bar 1.00 1,250.60 1,262.60 1,262.60
SPOT SILVER: 18.25      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.25 33.01
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.50 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,687.68 13,045.18 18.25
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,190.53 5,340.53 18.10
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,814.50 1,839.50 18.40
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 183.95 188.95 18.90
1 oz .999 round 1.00 18.50 18.80 18.80
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 19.75 20.40 20.40
SPOT PLATINUM: 955.70      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 950.70 995.70 995.70
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Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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