The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Thursday, 13 April a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  7-Apr-17 13-Apr-17 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,813.00 1,848.90 35.90 2.0
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,254.30 1,285.90 31.60 2.5
Gold/silver ratio 69.184 69.549 0.366 0.5
Silver/gold ratio 0.0145 0.0144 -0.0001 -0.5
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 340.44 328.80 -11.63 -3.4
Dow in gold ounces 16.47 15.91 -0.56 -3.4
Dow in Silver ounces 1,139.35 1,106.24 -33.12 -2.9
Dow Industrials 20,656.50 20,453.25 -203.25 -1.0
S&P500 2,355.54 2,328.95 -26.59 -1.1
US dollar index 101.12 100.46 -0.66 -0.7
Platinum 959.00 973.70 14.70 1.5
Palladium 803.59 795.75 -7.84 -1.0

Tonight I'm offering y'all the weekly scorecard because tomorrow is Good Friday & we will not be working.

'Twas a pivotal week: stocks confirmed a downturn, dollar index flubbed another rally, gold broke out upside & silver tagged along, and Trump lobbed bombs, missiles, & tweets at targets all over the world.

Let the crawfishing begin! Yesterday in a Wall Street Journal interview Trump said he favored low interest rates and a weaker dollar, loved the Export-Import Bank (a hog trough for feeding globalists), might keep The Wicked Witch of the East Janet Yellen at the Fed, and likes NATO. By my count, it took the Elite about 5 months to 'splain things to him. He's got it now.

And if y'all voted against the Evil One for fear she would start a war with Russia, now Trump looks likely to start a war with North Korea, Russia, and somebody in the Middle East for good measure.

I heard he was going to back up on that wall on the Mexican border, too, and instead build hurdles to make the illegals jump higher when they enter the country. That'll teach 'em!

That glitch yesterday definitely placed the Dollar index higher than it ought to have been. I'm calling it 100.46 today, up 34 basis points from yesterday's roughly 100.12. Chart's here,

As I said, disbelieve that close for yesterday, but the range for that bar is right. Dollar tried to sink more today, razored through the 20 DMA (100.15) for a 100.03 low, but recovered. Whatever the truth of these closes, the trend is sharply down, with lower lows & lower highs.

Meanwhile the threat of war has sent timid money fleeing into stocks, still viewed as a "safe haven" by those who do not know, as I do, that the US is one of the most infamous bankrupts & renegers on the planet (Default on the Continental 1780s, suspension of gold payments during the WBTS, greenbacks, suspension of gold payments & outlawing gold 1934, and low-life, yellow-bellied central bank inflation stealing from the dollar's value since 1934). Anyway, that's how the mob thinks, & their flight has driven bond prices up & interest rates down (remember, they move opposite to each other). 10 Year Treasury note yield is here, looking ready to break down, thanks to Trump & war fears.

Stocks fell further, more dramatically today. Look at the S&P500, Dow tumbled 138.61 (0.67%) to 20, 453.25 & S&500 fell 15.98 (0.68%) to 2,328.95.

Both indices closed below their 50 day moving averages yesterday & followed through with weakness today. Look for a move to 2,300 & 20,000 before they can rally.

Embryonic breakdown in gold I pointed out yesterday proliferated today, & grew & grew. Dropped from 16.11 oz to 15.87 oz. Behold,

Yea, likewise the tiny breach of support by the Dow in silver yesterday widened out to a tear,

Comex gold rose $10.60 (0.8%) to $1,285.90; silver added 21¢ (1.1%) to1848.9¢.

Both metals traded in a very narrow range today. I'm sorry, but I'm still suspicious of this rally. Silver did rise today as high as 1860¢, a new high for the move, but not by much. And on the close silver still couldn't muscle through 1850¢.

Gold gobbled up $10.60 and in the aftermarket was trading at $1,287. Is that innate strength, or a 22,000 lb. Moab bomb dropped on Afghanistan & a North Korean government order to flee the capital?

But I am not going to fight any market. Gold has made solid progress, o'erleaping $1,250, $1,267, and now $1,285. It stands above its 200 DMA, yet it is forming a rising wedge with portends a downward resolution. A burst of strength through $1,306 would make gold's present rally look solid & lasting. Chart's right here,

Silver's chart charmeth not mine eyes. Throw yours on it,

I see what looks like a double top at 1850¢ and a failure to clear it today on another try. Of course, it silver gets one little toe through that veil, it will shoot higher -- but first the toe, please. I keep looking over my shoulder expecting the present geopolitical crises to evanesce, which will cripple silver & gold. All the same, I'd rather be holding metals than US stocks or bonds.

Tomorrow is Good Friday when we celebrate the all-atoning death of the Lamb of God, when "by one offering he perfected forever them that are being sanctified." Glory be to God for his tender love for mankind! Then on Easter we celebrate Jesus Christ's Resurrection, when" God raised him from the dead and loosed the pains of death, because it was not possible that he should be held by it." Thanks be to God for his tender mercy!

Y'all enjoy Easter: He is risen!

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
13-Apr-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,285.90 10.60 0.8
Silver, $/oz 18.49 0.21 1.1
Gold/Silver Ratio 69.549 0.565 0.8
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0144 0.0002 1.1
Platinum 973.70 8.80 0.9
Palladium 795.75 -0.40 -0.1
S&P 500 2,328.95 -15.98 -0.7
Dow 20,453.25 -138.61 -0.7
Dow in GOLD $s 328.80 -4.95 -1.5
Dow in GOLD oz 15.91 -0.24 -1.5
Dow in SILVER oz 1,106.24 -20.29 -1.8
US Dollar Index 100.71 0.09 0.1
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,287.55      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,312.01 1,329.40 1,329.40
1/2 AE 0.50 656.14 679.18 1,358.37
1/4 AE 0.25 331.29 345.39 1,381.54
1/10 AE 0.10 132.51 140.73 1,407.29
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,250.70 1,259.70 1,285.14
British sovereign 0.24 305.36 318.36 1,352.43
French 20 franc 0.19 240.39 246.39 1,319.69
Krugerrand 1.00 1,299.14 1,309.14 1,309.14
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,297.55 1,310.55 1,310.55
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 740.34 675.96 1,351.93
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 328.33 344.42 1,377.68
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 136.48 140.34 1,403.43
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,538.30 1,549.30 1,284.98
.9999 bar 1.00 1,287.55 1,299.55 1,299.55
SPOT SILVER: 18.57      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.25 33.01
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.50 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,920.05 13,277.55 18.57
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,286.40 5,436.40 18.43
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,847.00 1,872.00 18.72
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 187.20 192.20 19.22
1 oz .999 round 1.00 18.82 19.12 19.12
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 20.07 20.72 20.72
SPOT PLATINUM: 973.70      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 968.70 1,013.70 1,013.70
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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