Stocks had a better week, but remain imprisoned in a downtrend. US dollar index withered, then caught hold with key reversal upwards although it closed lower for the week. Platinum & palladium have been all over the place, but ended the week little changed.

Let's start by looking at the US dollar index chart, http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT

Please ignore the spiritual nausea occasioned by any scrofulous, parasitic fiat currency & concentrate on the chart. Dollar index has been forming a head & shoulders top for nearly six months, but when it got a chance to break down this week, nearly stripped its transmission slamming it in reverse. Yesterday & today saw a key reversal upwards, although the MACD isn't confirming that yet. Here are the boundaries: If the dollar index falls through 99, it will skid toward 97. If it clears 100.65, it will rally to 108 or 110. It arrests my attention that BOTH gold & the dollar index have been rising last two days.

This yere S&P500 chart says all that's needful, http://schrts.co/vtdPMb

Today the Dow lost 30.95 (0.15%) 20 20,547.75. S&P fell 7.5 (0.3) to 2,348.69. The downtrend in force since 1 March remains firmly in the driver's seat. Although the S&P500 touched its downtrend line yesterday, & closed on its 50 day moving average, today it swooned and closed beneath the 20 DMA.

All this doesn't promise stocks will never rally again, but it does promise nothing happens until they crack that red downtrend line.

Dow in gold & Dow in silver are gainsaying each other. Dow in gold, right here, http://schrts.co/ucPYl9 Mark the lower tops from December to March, accompanied now by lower lows. It ought to move lower.

But the Dow in Silver -- http://schrts.co/kXRNO9 -- was tracing out a like pattern but how now reversed above the line of the last low. Part of the mystery of silver right now.

Have to take a look at the Gold/Silver ratio, http://schrts.co/f3I4vm

In the last six trading days it has broken out above its downtrend line & the 200, 50, & 20 DMAs. Today it gapped up. I'll call that an exhaustion gap signaling the end of move rather than a runaway gap signaling acceleration & continuing. Lo, I have my reasons. Look at the overbought RSI, whispering this can't last much longer. MACD & Rate of Change are also about as high as they have been lately. If the ratio doesn't stop here, we will see more of this gold up/silver down business.

Today Comex gold rose $5.50 (0.4%) to $1,287.40 in narrow trading. Silver plunged 16.2¢ (0.9%) for a new low for the move at 1783¢.

On a five day chart gold rounded a bottom on Wednesday and Thursday and today tried to climb out of that bow. Really needs to climb over $1,291 to cinch that.

On the daily chart right here, http://schrts.co/GW78kf y'all can see gold's dilemma, like a ping pong ball caught on a short table. Off the December low it has worked up to clear the downtrend line from the July 2016 high. Good, correction's over. And from December that appears to be an advancing wave. But gold is stuck between support from that conquered downtrend line and overhead resistance at $1,306.

Can the longer term charts tell us anything? Look at the monthly, http://schrts.co/WU6cr7

I'll be switched if gold didn't poke its head through the 50 MMA AND the short term downtrend line. MACD points up, as does the RSI.

What about the weekly gold chart? Here 'tis, http://schrts.co/kjAxKh

Gold cleared the downtrend line for the October 2012 high early in 2016, then twice validated its supremacy over that blue top range boundary. It is trading above the 200 WMA $1,236, and you have ot confess its next target is that downtrend line from the August 2011 high. I keep asking myself, but I can't find anything negative about this chart -- unless you are the Wicked Witch of the East Janet Yellen, in which case you ought to be puking in your broom because this chart says the dollar's reign is limited: Dorothy is coming down the yellow brick road.

Came exercise for silver cheers the heart as well. Behold, http://schrts.co/TtbDr6

Silver's monthly chart shows it has surpassed gold by already clearing the downtrend line from the 2011 high. Standeth above its 200 month moving average (1522¢) but below the 50 MMA. All the same, it has broken to the upside out of that little even-sided triangle. If the RSI is talking out of both sides of it's mouth, the MACD is at least positive.

My weekly silver chart looks like a Georgia road map with county roads included: http://schrts.co/YyelnS

I reckon I got too excited with that annotation function. Anyhow, the blue arrows show the bottom in December 2015, then the breakout last year thru the downtrend from 2011. Silver then challenged the 200 week moving average (now 1785¢) and fell back to a December 2016 low higher than Dec. 2017. Dancing today with that 200 WMA. Once silver pierces that, it will shoot!

On 21 April 1836 at the Battle of San Jacinto Texas won its independence from Mexico. Go Texas!

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

• Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
• NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
• NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
• NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
• What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
• One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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