The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 25 April a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

Dr. Mercola offers an exhaustive and fine summary of agriculture & nutrition in the article, "Modern Agriculture Drives Hunger, Obesity, & Disease While Simultaneously Threatening Food Chain & Worsening water Crisis." You can read it at http://bit.ly/2q1Lh9S He also lists several really effective organizations where you can educate yourself further, like the Weston A. Price Foundation.

A little more about counterfeit gold: It seems counterfeit gold has been pouring out of China. A wholesaler friend today told me he got clipped on three twenty-gram Perth Mint gold bars. Even though they tested good with his electronic tester, they were gold plate over a copper core. They were sealed in plastic, so he didn't open them to weigh them. LESSON: never buy anything in plastic. ANOTHER LESSON: prefer coins over bars.

The US Dollar today is perched over the abyss. It fell 32 basis points to 98.65. That took the dollar index below its 200 DMA (Now 98.93). Look at the chart, http://schrts.co/71oGDi

The dollar index must hold on above its last low at 98.67 or fall to 97.50 -- just for starters. There's no slack here for the dollar index.

Stocks have posted runaway gaps. Here's the Dow chart, http://schrts.co/Q6KUW0 and here's the S&P500, http://schrts.co/vtdPMb

Gaps two days running makes a "runaway gap" and points to much higher prices. Today the Dow jumped 232.23 or 1.12% to close at 20,996.12. S&P500 didn't leap quite as high, up only 14.46 (0.61%) to 2,388.61.

Catalyst for this jubilation seems to be the Trump's claim he will present to congress tomorrow the biggest tax cut in history. Right, but who wants to bet the beneficiaries will be the same old cronies? Shush, shush, shush your mouth! Look at the emperor's beautiful new clothes!

I will not dwell but mention only in passing that tax legislation is notoriously difficult to pass, and so far Trump has passed, well, nothing. Just observing.

Comex gold sank $10.20 (0.8%) $1,265.60. Silver got socked in the face, losing 26.7¢ (-1.5%) to 1758.1¢. Gold chart is right here, http://schrts.co/vtdPMb

Gold sliced through its 20 DMA ($1268.40) & even closed below the downtrend line from the July 2016 high. Targeting the 200 or 50 day moving average, $1,258.50 or $1,247. 50 DMA is also the 50% correction mark. This will take a week or two. Hang on, don't start nail-biting & staying awake at nights, staring into the dark and sweating bullets.

A measure of how low gold is fallen is the level of premiums. After Y2K mobs who had bought gold & silver for Y2K without any long term understanding all poured in to sel they drove the American Eagle premiums down to zero. But since then the wholesale buy side premium on one oz American Eagles has ranged from 3% to 2.5%. Today I am quoted 1.1% on gold American Eagles and 1.3% on US Buffalos.

Lo, the silver chart: http://schrts.co/o96FnV

Silver cheekily challenged its 50 DMA overhead but was slapped for its trouble and closed much lower. Now nearing that area where support ought to begin kicking in, say about 1740¢.

Legendary Oil Man H.L. Hunt once said, "Never get too elated in victory, or too down in defeat." Sage philosophy for markets -- it will keep your eyes on the horizon.

My wife Susan was such an outstanding & speedy seamstress that her father used to call her "Hot Needle Hattie." An hour before a date she would begin stitching together an outfit and somehow always got it finished. She was pretty inventive, too. In one contest in high school she designed a blouse out of fishnet but with collar and cuffs and a swimsuit-like top underneath. To complement that she designed sandals without soles. She made them so that they slipped over her toe and fastened around her ankle. Yes, she won the prize.

I am looking at a picture of her when we lived in New Orleans. She has on a big floppy hat and a halter top she made herself. It had a draw string around the neck and waist, but no back. Pretty flashy for 1972. Probably didn't take her 20 minutes to cut that top out and stitch it up complete. That was the year I bought her a new Singer sewing machine, and she adored it. Imagine buying paint and brushes for Michelangelo.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
25-Apr-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,265.60 -10.20 -0.80%
Silver, $/oz 17.58 -0.27 -1.50%
Gold/Silver Ratio 71.987 0.505 0.71%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0139 -0.0001 -0.70%
Platinum 954.60 -2.60 -0.27%
Palladium 796.50 1.20 0.15%
S&P 500 2,388.61 -12.65 -0.53%
Dow 20,996.12 232.23 1.12%
Dow in GOLD $s 342.94 6.50 1.93%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.59 0.31 1.93%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,194.25 30.88 2.65%
US Dollar Index 98.69 -0.28 -0.28%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,263.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,277.80 1,287.80 1,287.80
1/2 AE 0.50 644.08 666.71 1,333.41
1/4 AE 0.25 325.20 339.04 1,356.16
1/10 AE 0.10 130.08 138.14 1,381.44
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,227.72 1,236.72 1,261.71
British sovereign 0.24 299.75 312.75 1,328.60
French 20 franc 0.19 235.97 241.97 1,296.04
Krugerrand 1.00 1,271.48 1,281.48 1,281.48
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,273.90 1,286.90 1,286.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 726.74 663.55 1,327.10
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 322.29 338.09 1,352.37
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 133.97 137.77 1,377.65
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,510.04 1,521.04 1,261.54
.9999 bar 1.00 1,263.90 1,275.90 1,275.90
SPOT SILVER: 17.56      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.25 33.01
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.50 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,233.65 12,591.15 17.61
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,988.45 5,138.45 17.42
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,746.00 1,771.00 17.71
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 177.10 182.10 18.21
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.81 18.11 18.11
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 19.06 19.71 19.71
SPOT PLATINUM: 954.60      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 949.60 994.60 994.60
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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