The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 26 April a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

US dollar index today pulled back form the abyss, rising 27 basis points to 98.92. Abideth still below its 200 DMA (98.94). Really has no room for fooling around, because a close below 98.67 will call the sharks like pouring blood into the water. Charts here,

Stocks had a very choppy, up & down day, and in the end closed lower. Dow lost 21.03 (0.1%) to 20,975.09. S&P500 lost 1.16 (0.05%) to 2,387.45. Get out your pixie dust, they're flying to Never Never Land.

Gold fell another $3.50 (0.3%) to $1,262.10 while silver rolled down 22.8¢ (1.3%) to 1735.3¢.

Silver chart's worth pondering,

Silver's always more volatile than gold, so exceeding the 50% correction point (1775¢) shouldn't surprise anyone. Now it has reached that neckline tat has offered support before. If it intends to test the support of that downtrend line from the July 2016 high, silver's looking at 1660¢. is having some rare technical difficulty so I can't reach the Annotation screen to remove my labels. Just ignore them in this chart,

I show this chart to point out the breakneck angle of ascent. Reached 72.731 at Comex close today, and needs to stop soon or punish us with another rally.

Gold's chart has changed little,

God has simply drawn closer to its 200 day moving average, but a likelier target is the 50 DMA at $1,248.

Trump announced his blockbuster tax program today, which included the completely indigestible ending of deductibility of state & local taxes. You could hear the howling from New York to California, but not from Tennessee, where we have no income tax on wages. Rest of it was uninteresting enough for me to forget it in less time than it takes a gnat to change his mind.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
25-Apr-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,262.10 3.50 0.28%
Silver, $/oz 17.35 -0.23 -1.30%
Gold/Silver Ratio 72.731 1.142 1.60%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0137 -0.0002 -1.57%
Platinum 945.90 -2.60 -0.27%
Palladium 805.00 1.20 0.15%
S&P 500 2,387.45 -12.65 -0.53%
Dow 20,975.09 -21.03 -0.10%
Dow in GOLD $s 343.55 -1.30 -0.38%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.62 -0.06 -0.38%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,208.73 14.48 1.21%
US Dollar Index 98.92 0.27 0.27%
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SPOT GOLD: 1,266.30      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,281.50 1,291.50 1,291.50
1/2 AE 0.50 645.30 667.97 1,335.95
1/4 AE 0.25 325.81 339.68 1,358.74
1/10 AE 0.10 130.33 138.41 1,384.07
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,230.06 1,239.06 1,264.09
British sovereign 0.24 300.32 313.32 1,331.02
French 20 franc 0.19 236.42 242.42 1,298.44
Krugerrand 1.00 1,272.63 1,282.63 1,282.63
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,276.30 1,289.30 1,289.30
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 728.12 664.81 1,329.62
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 322.91 338.74 1,354.94
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 134.23 138.03 1,380.27
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,512.91 1,523.91 1,263.92
.9999 bar 1.00 1,266.30 1,278.30 1,278.30
SPOT SILVER: 17.40      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.25 33.01
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.50 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,119.25 12,476.75 17.45
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,941.25 5,091.25 17.26
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,730.00 1,755.00 17.55
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 175.50 180.50 18.05
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.65 17.95 17.95
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.90 19.55 19.55
SPOT PLATINUM: 945.90      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 940.90 985.90 985.90
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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