The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 28 April a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  21-Apr-17 28-Apr-17 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,783.00 1,719.10 -63.90 -3.6
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,287.40 1,266.10 -21.30 -1.7
Gold/silver ratio 72.204 73.649 1.445 2.0
Silver/gold ratio 0.0138 0.0136 -0.0003 -2.0
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 329.94 341.90 11.96 3.6
Dow in gold ounces 15.96 16.54 0.58 3.6
Dow in Silver ounces 1,152.43 1,218.11 65.68 5.7
Dow Industrials 20,547.76 20,940.51 392.75 1.9
S&P500 2,348.69 2,384.20 35.51 1.5
US dollar index 99.88 98.90 -0.98 -1.0
Platinum 974.50 946.30 -28.20 -2.9
Palladium 790.60 826.55 35.95 4.5

It was another mad, mad week for stocks and sad, sad week for silver & gold. Dollar index took a sock on the jaw, platinum lost ground, and palladium broke out to a new high & its gains put everything else to shame.

Markets were afraid that a Marine Le Pen victory in the French Presidential election would force the Elite to take their snoots out of the trough, but they were so relieved when the wet cardboard instant candidate Macron edged ahead of her, they sold safe havens & bought stocks. The party's still on! We still have the punchbowl!

That meant the US dollar index was hammered with a big gap down & closed below its 200 day moving average. So far there's no indication the downtrend that began 1 March has ended, but if the dollar index can stay above 98.55, it won't undergo the shame of a breakdown. Closed today down 6 basis points at 98.6. View the chart here,

US interest rates, represented by the 10 year treasury yield, tried to break down but were caught above the downtrend line from 2007. Somewhere in the future this will translate into much higher interest rates. Behold, the chart:

Stocks benefitted most from the French-inspired euphoria. Dow chart's here, Today the Dow fell 40.82 (0.19%) to 20,940.51 while the S&P500 skidded 4.57 (0.19%) to 2,384.20.

Stocks burst upwards with a gap on Monday, then followed with a second gap on Tuesday. These looked like runaway gaps, but now the Dow has turned sideways, so maybe that second was an exhaustion Gap. Maybe all that news was good only for that double leap? Also possible that stocks will make yet another high before finally succumbing to gravity.

Speaking of gravity, Silver peeled off 7.4¢ (0.4%) to close Comex at 1719.1¢. Gold added $2.40 (0.2%) to $1,266.10.

The gold chart here, , shows the uptrend from the December low (green line). That pale blue line is drawn at $1,265. That support, for the moment, has caught gold. Depending on how long this lasts, if that does not hold gold might decline to its 50 day moving average now at $1,249.30. Rumors of gold's death have been greatly exaggerated.

Look at Silver's chart here,

Silver has hit the uptrend line from the December low AND support from the neckline of the Head & Shoulders silver formed November 2016 through January 2017. 'Twould be a good stopping point, with perhaps a spike to 1700¢ overshooting the mark & marking the turnaround.

Here's the Moneychanger's advice for the day: NEVER pay attention to sour people & croakers. Listen to them and you'll never get a thing done. I'll bet when Michelangelo was painting the Sistine Chapel there were sour people on the floor criticizing: "Hey, you ain't painted no clothes on them people! Your angels look too fierce, they're supposed to be cuddly. God don't look like that! Them people got muscles too big -- Eve didn't have no muscles like that, she was a woman. And your colors are ALL wrong!"

Truth is, all those sour carpers & croakers ain't a whit smarter today than they were in 1508. Y'all just ignore 'em, and keep on your way. Never stop to stone the devil's dogs.

Paid subscribers to the monthly Moneychanger can pick up the new issue at the website. April 2017 marks my 444th issue, less the 2 months I missed after Susan died and one I missed during our federal trial. Hard to get used to doing it by myself, since she was always there with me: layout artist, designer & label applier. I worked to her & she worked to me. Husbands, love your wives!

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
28-Apr-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,266.10 2.40 0.2
Silver, $/oz 17.19 -0.07 -0.4
Gold/Silver Ratio 73.649 0.143 0.2
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0136 -0.0001 -0.4
Platinum 946.30 -0.10 -0.0
Palladium 826.50 13.70 1.7
S&P 500 2,384.20 -4.57 -0.2
Dow 20,940.51 -40.82 -0.2
Dow in GOLD $s 341.90 -1.28 -0.4
Dow in GOLD oz 16.54 -0.06 -0.4
Dow in SILVER oz 1,218.11 2.86 0.2
US Dollar Index 98.90 -0.06 -0.1
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,267.10      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,283.57 1,293.57 1,293.57
1/2 AE 0.50 639.38 668.40 1,336.79
1/4 AE 0.25 319.69 339.90 1,359.60
1/10 AE 0.10 127.88 138.49 1,384.94
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,230.83 1,239.83 1,264.88
British sovereign 0.24 298.28 303.28 1,288.34
French 20 franc 0.19 236.57 240.57 1,288.52
Krugerrand 1.00 1,273.44 1,283.44 1,283.44
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,277.10 1,288.10 1,288.10
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 728.58 665.23 1,330.46
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 323.11 338.95 1,355.80
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 134.31 138.11 1,381.14
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,513.87 1,524.87 1,264.72
.9999 bar 1.00 1,265.10 1,278.10 1,278.10
SPOT SILVER: 17.17      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.50 33.33
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.00 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,990.55 12,348.05 17.27
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,873.40 5,023.40 17.03
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,697.00 1,742.00 17.42
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 169.70 175.20 17.52
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.97 17.57 17.57
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.32 19.32 19.32
SPOT PLATINUM: 946.30      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 956.30 969.30 969.30
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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