The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 2 May a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

When there's nothing to say I reckon you'd better get it said quick & shut up. Very little changed in today's markets.

US dollar index fell 10 basis points (0.1%) to 98.83, but that says nothing, just leaves the dollar index floating there just below its 200 DMA. Chart's here,

Stocks fell in step today with both major indices rising slightly. Dow added 36.43 (0.17%) to close at 20,949.89. S&P500 gained 2.84 (0.12%) to 2,391.17. Chart's here,

After the initial burst of enthusiasm over the French presidential election stocks have simply stalled and traded sideways. Looks so much like an island reversal forming that I can't keep from mentioning it, but I know, too, not to write stocks off too soon. They need to close above the March highs to change outlook.

Platinum & palladium don't look so good. Platinum chart's here,

Platinum broke out of its intermediate downtrend in January, but has since traded back to the uptrend line from the January 2016 low. Yep, 'twould be a good idea for platinum to claw a hold here and hang on, since rupturing that uptrend would be bad form.

Palladium chart may be seen here,

Like gold, silver, and platinum, palladium has been trending up since 2016 began. Recently it broke out ot a new high for the move, but backing away from this chart it becomes plain that palladium has formed a rising wedge that promises sorrow or at least a trip back to the uptrend line around $760.

Silver & gold flatlined today. On Comex silver lost 1.1¢ to 1676.9¢, on a high/low range of 21¢. Gold "gained" $1.80 to $1,255.10.

Gold chart here, merely shows gold tangled in its 200 DMA. Yes, the five day chart shows a little V bottom just above $1,252, but gold must clear $1,258 without looking back to validate that reading.

Silver chart is right here,

No change. Silver is dribbling on 1683¢, harkening back to the March low at the same place. Nothing large that points to a reversal. RSI is oversold. Volume shriveled today. MACD is stretched out of shape, but none of these unequivocally says, "Turnaround."

On 2 May 1863 at the peak of his career and of his country's strength and victory, CS General Thomas Jonathan "Stonewall" Jackson was tragically shot by Confederate forces mistaking his band in the night for yankees. With Lee he had just engineered a stunning victory at Chancellorsville, turning Hooker's flank and sending his army running in a rout.

Three bullets hit Jackson, two in the left arm and one in the right hand. His left arm had to be amputate. Pneumonia set in and Jackson died on Sunday, 10 May 1863, the very day of the week he had prayed to die on. His last words were, "Let us cross over the river, and rest under the shade of the trees."

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
2-May-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,255.10 1.80 0.14%
Silver, $/oz 16.77 -0.01 -0.07%
Gold/Silver Ratio 74.846 0.156 0.21%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0134 -0.0000 -0.21%
Platinum 923.60 -6.20 -0.67%
Palladium 813.45 -0.85 -0.10%
S&P 500 2,391.17 2.84 0.12%
Dow 20,949.89 36.43 0.17%
Dow in GOLD $s 345.05 0.11 0.03%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.69 0.01 0.03%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,249.32 2.99 0.24%
US Dollar Index 98.83 -0.10 -0.10%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,255.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,272.23 1,282.23 1,282.23
1/2 AE 0.50 633.72 662.49 1,324.97
1/4 AE 0.25 316.86 336.90 1,347.58
1/10 AE 0.10 126.74 137.27 1,372.70
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,219.95 1,228.95 1,253.78
British sovereign 0.24 295.64 300.64 1,277.14
French 20 franc 0.19 234.48 238.48 1,277.32
Krugerrand 1.00 1,262.18 1,272.18 1,272.18
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,265.90 1,276.90 1,276.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 722.14 659.35 1,318.70
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 320.25 335.95 1,343.81
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 133.13 136.89 1,368.93
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,500.49 1,511.49 1,253.62
.9999 bar 1.00 1,253.90 1,266.90 1,266.90
SPOT SILVER: 16.78      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.50 33.33
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.00 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,711.70 12,069.20 16.88
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,758.35 4,908.35 16.64
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,658.00 1,703.00 17.03
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 165.80 171.30 17.13
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.58 17.18 17.18
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.93 18.93 18.93
SPOT PLATINUM: 923.60      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 933.60 946.60 946.60
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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