I saw a headline that said Bitcoin had doubled since 2017 began, to $1,800 yesterday. First, I couldn't verify those figures. See chart here, https://yhoo.it/2pxjqx9
According to this Yahoo Finance chart, the Bitcoin high is $1,759.70, and the 30 January 2016 close was $969.89, not $1,800 & $900. But let that go as a niggling detail. What is Bitcoin seeing?
A parabolic rise. Near doubling in 5 months is NOT a sign of lasting strength, but a peak.
Bitcoin is a toy for speculators, differing from national fiat (imaginary) money in this, that Bitcoin is issued by computer nerds instead of out-of-touch-with-reality academic central banking criminals. Both are nerd-backed, irredeemable fiat money.
Remember that the mob loveth & chaseth rising prices, & the faster prices rise, the more the mob buys in a self reinforcing cycle. This is the road to sorrow and gnashing of teeth & empty pockets, because the faster the price rises, the closer looms the disaster, and the disaster is 100% certain. ALWAYS crashes.
Which brings to mind other parabolic rises with lit and brightly burning fuses: Tesla (up 81% since November, 7 months), Apple (up 76%), Google (up 29%), Microsoft (up 23%), Amazon (up 35%), and Facebook (up 35%). As my old first sergeant used to say, "A word to the wise is suffice."
About that gold/silver ratio: The Relative Strength Index promises to show when a market is overbought with an RSI reading above 70 or oversold with an RSI below 30. You can see the RSI above the chart here, http://schrts.co/kh9gOy
The Gold/Silver ratio's RSI yesterday stood at 81.28. That's the highest reading since the 85 in September 2008 -- much higher than February 2016, when the ratio hit 83.13 (against 75.37 today) but the RSI rose only to 76. So the ratio is intensely oversold, relative to the past 9 years. In 2003 the ratio made double peaks February & June, but the RSI never exceeded 79.6. Ratio topped at both peaks toward the end of the oversold RSI reading.
I checked also when tops occurred relative to the RSI highs. In 2008 the RSI peaked long before the ratio peaked and in 2014, but in 2016 the RSI peaked at the same time. So we don't have a clue whether this high reading marks the high in the ratio or not, but it tells us at least a high lieth not far in the future, if it has not already occurred.
US dollar index chart hides here, http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT
On Friday the dollar index showed the first day of a key reversal, lower low for the move with a close higher than the previous days. That reversal was confirmed by a higher close the next day and today. Today also carried the dollar index above the 20 day moving average. All that says, "Dollar is going higher."
Think a moment on the euro, http://schrts.co/HcRUv0
First round of the French presidential election sent the euro rocketing up through the downtrend line and upper range boundary. It even climbed above the 200 DMA, & stayed there for a couple of weeks.
Then the second round arrived, and it was, "Buy the rumor, sell the news." Euro sank. Trying to drill through its 200 DMA now, and will likely succeed, heading to the earth's core.
Consider also the yen, http://schrts.co/UuqBFa
It also sought to break the chains binding it to earth, and flew all the way up to the 200 DMA, where its wings fell off. Gapped down yesterday -- maybe an exhaustion gap. Should fall at least to the bottom boundary of that range, about 86.50.
Comex gold added $3.00 (0.2%) to $1,217.30. Silver jumped up 14.3¢ (0.9%) to 1615.1¢.
Positive, but neither metal rose past the cutoffs for a bottom I prescribed yesterday, namely, $1,224 & 1620¢. Gold closed near the day's low. Both messed up any sign of a bottom on their charts.
So what's next? If they can climb over $1,224 and 1620¢ tomorrow then maybe we'll see some rally. Silver now has a 17 day losing streak less two (2) up-days, including today. That begs for a turnaround.
On 10 May 1775 the Second Continental Congress met in Philadelphia and named George Washington supreme commander of Continental forces, a good thing. Same day that Congress also issued its first paper currency, the Continental, a very bad thing. It went the way of all fiat currencies. By end-1778 the Continental had fallen to one-fifth to one-seventh of face value. By 1780, to 1/40. By May 1781, six years after the first issue, they had ceased to circulate because they were worthless.
Yet not so worthless that a political scam could not be organized under the table to milk the government and enrich insiders. After the 1789 constitution was ratified, Congress authorized the exchange of Continentals for treasury bonds at 1% of face value. Let's see, if you scooped 'em up when they were worthless and sold 'em at 1% for treasury bonds, that's an infinite profit, ain't it?
And y'all thought federal government corruption was invented in 1861. No, it's been with us always.
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger