The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 12 May a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  5-May-17 12-May-17 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,621.50 1,634.60 13.10 0.8
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,224.80 1,226.20 1.40 0.1
Gold/silver ratio 75.535 75.015 -0.520 -0.7
Silver/gold ratio 0.0132 0.0133 0.0001 0.7
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 354.55 352.28 -2.26 -0.6
Dow in gold ounces 17.15 17.04 -0.11 -0.6
Dow in Silver ounces 1,295.53 1,278.39 -17.13 -1.3
Dow Industrials 21,006.94 20,896.61 -110.33 -0.5
S&P500 2,399.29 2,390.90 -8.39 -0.3
US dollar index 98.44 99.19 0.75 0.8
Platinum 907.70 915.00 7.30 0.8
Palladium 812.90 803.35 -9.55 -1.2

Silver and gold came back from last week's beating, but reluctantly. Stocks suffered their first down week in a month. Palladium is out of step with platinum. US dollar index rose for the week, but was slapped badly today.

Love, love, love those government statistics! Looking at the US dollar index chart today you can see when commerce department stats were published at 8:30 because at that point the bottom drops out of the dollar index. Retail sales data was lower than expected, "inflation" lower, so I reckon the market thinks that will keep the Fed from raising rates. If rates don't rise, the dollar don't rise, so both the US dollar index and the 10 year treasury yield fell today. The tumble is not fatal for the dollar index, but at 99.19 (down 43 basis points) it closed a little lower than the 20 day moving average (99.26).

Stocks have been limping and struggling all week. S&P500 Chart is here, http://schrts.co/vtdPMb

Today the Dow lost 22.81 (0.11%) to close at 20,896.61. S&P500 gave up 3.54 (0.15%) to 2,390.90. looks as if it's trying to break down.

Here's the Dow in Gold chart, http://schrts.co/BGzJ0l . It hit the top line of its range at 17.248 oz and turned down, easing the overbought RSI. Rate of Change & MACD are also rolling over. DiG must get below 16.85 to give the first hint it has turned around, & then must fall through the 200 DMA at 15.63 to nail on the coffin lid. Gold & silver are going nowhere until their trend against stocks turns DOWN.

Look at the gold/silver ratio here, http://schrts.co/kh9gOy

It may have turned down. The MACD has rolled over & the grossly overbought RSI has eased. That suggests that this high ratio offers us yet another chance to swap gold for silver while silver is dirt cheap in terms of gold. Call us if you're interested, 888-218-9226.

Today Comex silver rose 13.7¢ (0.8%) to 1634.6¢. Gold added $3.50 (0.3%) to $1,226.20.

Silver & gold need harmony. They can't keep arguing with each other like a dysfunctional family. Silver today rose to the next level, call it 1635¢, but gold remained mired in $1,225. Where's the harmony?

Look at the 5 day gold chart, http://bit.ly/2qclP3O

Y'all can easily see that V-bottom on Tuesday, with a steady rise. But although this aftermarket chart shows gold at $1,228.45, that's not sufficient. It needs to beat $1,235.

Compare the 5 day silver chart here, http://bit.ly/1kGK1Vz

Same V bottom appears on Tuesday, but silver has limbed more enthusiastically & beaten the 1635¢ mark. Still, both metals are lethargic & lazy. Silver's bloated Commitments of Traders have been reduced by the price decline, which is helpful, but they will have to shrink more still.

Look at the palladium chart, http://schrts.co/haIHKH

That rising wedge leaves me expecting a significant fall. Now look at platinum's chart, http://schrts.co/pHX9AG

Platinum's chart resembles silver & gold's, barely violating the uptrend line from January 2016. In other words, platinum is trending up. It will either cure that breach in the downtrend line by rising, or fall back to that January 2016 low. For right now the MACD & RSI imply it will rise.

Y'all may have thought I missed the removal of President Jefferson Davis' statue in New Orleans. Too long a story to tell, but ultimately the funding for this war on the South comes from George Soros. Most disturbing is the abysmal historical ignorance of those tearing down Southern monuments. There's not one of them worthy to untie Jefferson Davis' shoe lace.

I am no partisan of chattel slavery, but I am no partisan of lies substituted for facts, either. If you want an accurate view of how slavery worked in the South, get Time on the Cross: The Economics of American Negro Slavery (1974) by Robert Fogel & Stanley Engerman, the first from the University of Chicago and the second from the University of Rochester. Fogel won a Nobel Prize for this work, which examined thousands of contemporaneous documents. That's not to say slavery was preferable to free labor, only that in many economic respects Southern slaves lived at about the same level or higher than Northern free labor.

Also instructive are the so-called Slave Narratives collected during the 1930s by the Federal Writers Project. These are actual interviews with ex-slaves. I have three books on my shelf excerpted from the Slave Narratives: Before Freedom, When I Can Just Remember, Mighty Rough Times I Tell You, & My Folks Don't Want Me To Talk About Slavery. All come from John F Blair, Publisher, in North Carolina.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
12-May-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,226.20 3.50 0.3
Silver, $/oz 16.35 0.14 0.8
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.015 0.208 0.3
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0133 0.0001 0.8
Platinum 915.00 -0.20 -0.0
Palladium 803.35 4.95 0.6
S&P 500 2,390.90 -3.54 -0.1
Dow 10,896.61 -22.81 -0.2
Dow in GOLD $s 183.70 -0.89 -0.5
Dow in GOLD oz 8.89 -0.04 -0.5
Dow in SILVER oz 666.62 -7.04 -1.0
US Dollar Index 99.19 0.43 0.4
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,226.30      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,241.63 1,251.63 1,251.63
1/2 AE 0.50 618.78 646.87 1,293.75
1/4 AE 0.25 309.39 328.95 1,315.82
1/10 AE 0.10 123.76 134.03 1,340.35
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,191.20 1,200.20 1,224.45
British sovereign 0.24 288.67 293.67 1,247.54
French 20 franc 0.19 228.95 232.95 1,247.72
Krugerrand 1.00 1,234.88 1,244.88 1,244.88
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,236.30 1,247.30 1,247.30
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 705.12 643.81 1,287.62
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 312.71 328.04 1,312.14
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 129.99 133.67 1,336.67
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,465.12 1,476.12 1,224.29
.9999 bar 1.00 1,224.30 1,237.30 1,237.30
SPOT SILVER: 16.36      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.50 33.33
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.00 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,590.15 11,947.65 16.71
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,634.45 4,784.45 16.22
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,616.00 1,661.00 16.61
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 161.60 167.10 16.71
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.16 16.76 16.76
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.51 18.51 18.51
SPOT PLATINUM: 915.00      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Platinum Platypus 1.00 925.00 938.00 938.00
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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