I have to go travelling tomorrow and won't return to write y'all until Friday. Then next week, I'll be away every day but Friday. So for my absence I'll give y'all some general guidelines.
I am about to give up on the US dollar index. Of course, all currencies are subject to central bank manipulation, but the dollar index chart looks like it has completed a head and shoulders top and broken down. Y'all don't take my nat'ral born durn Tennessee fool word for it, go look for yourselves, http://schrts.co/GOnuOg Correct causative chain to infer from that is, "Dollar down, gold & silver up." Dollar index today bounced a meager, wining 8 basis points to 96.64.
Struggling day to day to add a notch to their all-time-high pistol grip, stocks look wan and drained. Making new highs by tenths of a percent isn't strength, it's a struggling, topping market. Seldom in history since the Tulip Bubble in Holland in the 1640s has any market been so overbought, so ballooned, so ready to pop. I don't care if a death paroxysm takes them 2% higher, all things have an end, and for stocks, that's drawing nearer daily.
Y'all can look at the Dow chart here, http://schrts.co/Q6KUW0
Dow today lost 22.25 (0.1%) to 21,184.04 while the S&P500 fell 2.97 (0.12%) to 2,436.10.
Ten year treasury yield has dropped to its 200 day moving average, a good place to turn around, especially if the Fed's muffin men on the FOMC raise interest rates this month. Behold, the chart, http://schrts.co/vUJO4G By the way, the price on the 30 year US treasury bond (price moves opposite to yield, remember) also hit its 200 DMA, and momentarily has fallen back. Picture? This way, http://schrts.co/IoR0Nw
Gold today rose $2.50 to $1,279.30 and Comex silver rose 6¢ to 1754.7¢.
It was a sleepy, tight range day. Silver traded between 1765¢ & 1750¢, enough to make a two-toed tree sloth's heart beat faster. Gold traded between $1,280.20 & $1,286. Bet they had a hard time keeping awake on Comex.
Here's the 20 month gold chart, http://schrts.co/ITyVsW
It pictures the reversal upward after the drop from 2011 - December 2015, demonstrated by higher highs and higher lows. Now gold is closing in on $1,300. Oh, but wait, you might carp, silver & gold are entering their worst time of the year seasonally, June & July. Right, and last year gold made a blazing high on 1 July. Whoops, seasonals don't always enforce themselves. Gold stands about $25 from blasting through $1,300.
We may yet have a slow patch ahead, but the rest of the year will be very kind to gold. And remember, we have all the world's central banks and governments on our side, just a-spendin' and a-printin' money fast as they can, on top of the most colossal debt bubble the world hath ever witnessed. Rattling all that around between my ears, I spawn the notion that we'll never see gold at $1,220 again, maybe not below $1,250.
Look at the like silver chart, http://schrts.co/IVR4Y9
It offers much the same picture as gold, but more volatile. Overhead resistance looms at 1850¢. Silver is pennies from stepping above its 200 DMA (1763¢). Even if it spends the summer moping, higher things are in order, and the uptrend from the December 2015 low remains intact and supporting. Silver probably wont' see prices below 1700¢ again.
So for the next couple of weeks, I am looking for steady progress in silver & gold, although a reaction may take hold when silver hits $1,305, but the rest of the year I anticipate continued gains. Stocks are stalling, a classic case of coughing & sputtering as they run out of gas The Dollar Index may have broken down for its next big move toward its intrinsic value: Zero.
I'll miss y'all, but I'm stale as week old bread. Time away will refresh me.
SPECIAL OFFER: 1/10 Krugerrands
Krugerrands have always been one of my favorite coins, but I usually balk at the one-tenth ounce coins. Why? Because like all the rest of the modern issue fractional coins, they carry way too high a premium over gold.
BUT in the dead market of the last six months, the retail public has been inundating wholesale channels with gold coins, driving down the premiums on everything, even the 1/10 ounces. What annoys me about this is that even though they are paying next to nothing for these coins, they are still selling them at the inflated mint price. Copying the Krugerrand marketing, national mints maintain high pricing by selling only to a small cartel of wholesalers. Wholesalers are still pricing this stuff as if they had to buy it at the mint at the higher price, rather than off the secondary market at the lower price.
Here's the deal: I bought 300 one-tenth ounce Krugerrands and even paying my customer the highest wholesale rate I could find, I can sell them to y'all at a price that makes sense -- very good sense for a small, fractional, modern issue gold coin.
With gold at $1,279, I can sell lots of Fifteen (15) each at $138.00 for a total of $2,070 + $30 shipping = $2,100. At $138.00 they carry a premium of 7.9%, about as low as you'll ever see.
I have only twenty (20) lots of 15 coins each, and will not honor this price after they are sold. If you order multiple lots, I will still charge only one $30 shipping fee. All sales are on a first come, first serve basis. Please do not call us or reply to this email. Email your order, INCLUDING your name, address, and phone number, to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.
All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow One week (7 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:
1. You may order by email only to email@example.com. Sorry, we can't ship into Tennessee or outside the United States.
2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.
If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.
3. Once your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation.
4. You must send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. Check just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards.
Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, if you send a check you'll see your order in about one month; a wire, about a week.
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger