The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 5 June a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

I have to go travelling tomorrow and won't return to write y'all until Friday. Then next week, I'll be away every day but Friday. So for my absence I'll give y'all some general guidelines.

I am about to give up on the US dollar index. Of course, all currencies are subject to central bank manipulation, but the dollar index chart looks like it has completed a head and shoulders top and broken down. Y'all don't take my nat'ral born durn Tennessee fool word for it, go look for yourselves, http://schrts.co/GOnuOg Correct causative chain to infer from that is, "Dollar down, gold & silver up." Dollar index today bounced a meager, wining 8 basis points to 96.64.

Struggling day to day to add a notch to their all-time-high pistol grip, stocks look wan and drained. Making new highs by tenths of a percent isn't strength, it's a struggling, topping market. Seldom in history since the Tulip Bubble in Holland in the 1640s has any market been so overbought, so ballooned, so ready to pop. I don't care if a death paroxysm takes them 2% higher, all things have an end, and for stocks, that's drawing nearer daily.

Y'all can look at the Dow chart here, http://schrts.co/Q6KUW0

Dow today lost 22.25 (0.1%) to 21,184.04 while the S&P500 fell 2.97 (0.12%) to 2,436.10.

Ten year treasury yield has dropped to its 200 day moving average, a good place to turn around, especially if the Fed's muffin men on the FOMC raise interest rates this month. Behold, the chart, http://schrts.co/vUJO4G By the way, the price on the 30 year US treasury bond (price moves opposite to yield, remember) also hit its 200 DMA, and momentarily has fallen back. Picture? This way, http://schrts.co/IoR0Nw

Gold today rose $2.50 to $1,279.30 and Comex silver rose 6¢ to 1754.7¢.

It was a sleepy, tight range day. Silver traded between 1765¢ & 1750¢, enough to make a two-toed tree sloth's heart beat faster. Gold traded between $1,280.20 & $1,286. Bet they had a hard time keeping awake on Comex.

Here's the 20 month gold chart, http://schrts.co/ITyVsW

It pictures the reversal upward after the drop from 2011 - December 2015, demonstrated by higher highs and higher lows. Now gold is closing in on $1,300. Oh, but wait, you might carp, silver & gold are entering their worst time of the year seasonally, June & July. Right, and last year gold made a blazing high on 1 July. Whoops, seasonals don't always enforce themselves. Gold stands about $25 from blasting through $1,300.

We may yet have a slow patch ahead, but the rest of the year will be very kind to gold. And remember, we have all the world's central banks and governments on our side, just a-spendin' and a-printin' money fast as they can, on top of the most colossal debt bubble the world hath ever witnessed. Rattling all that around between my ears, I spawn the notion that we'll never see gold at $1,220 again, maybe not below $1,250.

Look at the like silver chart, http://schrts.co/IVR4Y9

It offers much the same picture as gold, but more volatile. Overhead resistance looms at 1850¢. Silver is pennies from stepping above its 200 DMA (1763¢). Even if it spends the summer moping, higher things are in order, and the uptrend from the December 2015 low remains intact and supporting. Silver probably wont' see prices below 1700¢ again.

So for the next couple of weeks, I am looking for steady progress in silver & gold, although a reaction may take hold when silver hits $1,305, but the rest of the year I anticipate continued gains. Stocks are stalling, a classic case of coughing & sputtering as they run out of gas The Dollar Index may have broken down for its next big move toward its intrinsic value: Zero.

I'll miss y'all, but I'm stale as week old bread. Time away will refresh me.

SPECIAL OFFER: 1/10 Krugerrands

Krugerrands have always been one of my favorite coins, but I usually balk at the one-tenth ounce coins. Why? Because like all the rest of the modern issue fractional coins, they carry way too high a premium over gold.

BUT in the dead market of the last six months, the retail public has been inundating wholesale channels with gold coins, driving down the premiums on everything, even the 1/10 ounces. What annoys me about this is that even though they are paying next to nothing for these coins, they are still selling them at the inflated mint price. Copying the Krugerrand marketing, national mints maintain high pricing by selling only to a small cartel of wholesalers. Wholesalers are still pricing this stuff as if they had to buy it at the mint at the higher price, rather than off the secondary market at the lower price.

Here's the deal: I bought 300 one-tenth ounce Krugerrands and even paying my customer the highest wholesale rate I could find, I can sell them to y'all at a price that makes sense -- very good sense for a small, fractional, modern issue gold coin.

With gold at $1,279, I can sell lots of Fifteen (15) each at $138.00 for a total of $2,070 + $30 shipping = $2,100. At $138.00 they carry a premium of 7.9%, about as low as you'll ever see.

I have only twenty (20) lots of 15 coins each, and will not honor this price after they are sold. If you order multiple lots, I will still charge only one $30 shipping fee. All sales are on a first come, first serve basis. Please do not call us or reply to this email. Email your order, INCLUDING your name, address, and phone number, to offers@the-moneychanger.com.

Special Conditions:

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow One week (7 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by email only to offers@the-moneychanger.com. Sorry, we can't ship into Tennessee or outside the United States.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Once your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation.

4. You must send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. Check just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, if you send a check you'll see your order in about one month; a wire, about a week.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
5-Jun-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,279.30 2.50 0.20%
Silver, $/oz 17.55 0.06 0.34%
Gold/Silver Ratio 72.907 -0.107 -0.15%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0137 0.0000 0.15%
Platinum 956.30 7.30 0.77%
Palladium 837.95 7.15 0.86%
S&P 500 2,436.10 -2.97 -0.12%
Dow 21,184.04 -22.50 -0.11%
Dow in GOLD $s 342.31 -1.03 -0.30%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.56 -0.05 -0.30%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,207.27 -5.43 -0.45%
US Dollar Index 96.64 0.08 0.08%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,279.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,288.15 1,322.05 1,322.05
1/2 AE 0.50 651.88 674.78 1,349.56
1/4 AE 0.25 329.14 343.79 1,375.14
1/10 AE 0.10 134.21 140.07 1,400.72
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,242.59 1,251.59 1,276.87
British sovereign 0.24 303.38 316.38 1,344.02
French 20 franc 0.19 236.44 240.44 1,287.83
Krugerrand 1.00 1,284.32 1,294.32 1,294.32
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,287.20 1,303.20 1,303.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 735.54 671.58 1,343.16
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 326.20 342.19 1,368.74
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 135.60 139.43 1,394.33
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,528.32 1,539.32 1,276.71
.9999 bar 1.00 1,283.68 1,291.20 1,291.20
SPOT SILVER: 17.50      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.50 33.33
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.00 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,298.00 12,584.00 17.60
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,970.75 5,120.75 17.36
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,730.00 1,765.00 17.65
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 176.50 181.50 18.15
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.30 17.90 17.90
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 19.00 20.50 20.50
SPOT PLATINUM: 956.30      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 971.30 1,001.30 1,001.30
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888-218-9226

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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