The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 22 June a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

I'm no more'n a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee, & don't claim to know a blessed thing, but I did notice that on 11 June Bitcoin made a high at $3,018.54 and fell 18.6%. It has since recovered to 2,712.16 today, down only 10.2% from that high. I can't help it, a fool once-bit is twice shy, & I've been bit more than once. Parabolic markets scare me worse than Siberian tigers having a liverish day.

Meanwhile other markets are bland and flat. US dollar index rose 5 basis points to 97.27, and is floating above the 20 day moving average without doing anything positive about it. Scrofulous chart is here,

Stocks make new highs, then stall and fall. Dow barely crawfished today, losing 12.74 (0.06%) to 21,397.29. S&P500 shaved off a tiny 1.1 (0.05%) to 2,434.50. Chart here shows it has simply been trading down to fill the gap left by 19 June's jump. No zeal here, no excitement. I keep pointing that out to direct your attention to its low energy, typical of topping markets. Some spasm of excitement drives it higher, but then it quickly regurgitates the gains.

On Comex, where they take no prisoners, silver rose 13.5¢ (0.8%) to 1649¢. Gold added $4.20 (0.3%) to $1,247.60.

The five day charts for both metals show double bottoms Tuesday & Wednesday, and today's results witness to a turnaround -- only a whisper on the wind, but the right whisper.

The silver chart, , behaved itself and turned up after it hit the downtrend line from the July 2016 high. A few more cents and silver will climb over the uptrend line from the December 2015 low once again. RSI is the only indicator that has turned up other than price of course. It's a start.

Gaze upon the gold chart, , and see that gold behaved as well, punching up through the downtrend line from the July 2016 high.

Today's trading was positive, but not dispositive. A reversal must be confirmed by more climbing. Not much enthusiasm here yet -- gold traded in a tight $9.60 range, silver in a 14¢ range.

I reckon life makes us tougher as the years go by. About 5 months before we got married in 1967, Susan got a job with a stock brokerage office in Memphis, Orvis Brothers, long since deceased. In those days stock orders had to be teletyped to New York, which Susan had to learn along with everything else. However, she was plenty bright and efficient. They'd started her out at some wage that sounds like a joke today, $2 an hour or less. After several months she decided she wanted a raise, so she went to ask the office manager, Frank Doggerel. As she told me, she choked up & almost started crying but managed to stutter out her request for a raise -- and she got it. As I've said, Susan had more moral & physical courage than anyone I've ever known. Courage, remember, is what grabs you and makes you go on even when you're scared stiff.

That story is funny because she left age 20 behind, the years sharpened Susan, and she was pretty tight to begin with. It would have brought tears to my eyes last year to ask her for a raise. And I might not have gotten it. (She'd laugh & slap me on the arm for saying that, but she'd like it.)

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
22-Jun-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,247.60 4.20 0.34%
Silver, $/oz 16.49 0.14 0.83%
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.658 -0.368 -0.48%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0132 0.0001 0.49%
Platinum 924.70 -1.40 -0.15%
Palladium 898.40 3.95 0.44%
S&P 500 2,434.50 -1.11 -0.05%
Dow 21,397.29 -12.74 -0.06%
Dow in GOLD $s 354.54 -1.41 -0.40%
Dow in GOLD oz 17.15 -0.07 -0.40%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,297.59 -11.49 -0.88%
US Dollar Index 97.27 0.05 0.05%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,249.70      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,259.70 1,291.56 1,291.56
1/2 AE 0.50 636.84 659.22 1,318.43
1/4 AE 0.25 321.54 335.86 1,343.43
1/10 AE 0.10 131.11 136.84 1,368.42
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,213.93 1,222.93 1,247.63
British sovereign 0.24 296.39 309.39 1,314.30
French 20 franc 0.19 230.99 234.99 1,258.63
Krugerrand 1.00 1,257.20 1,267.20 1,267.20
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,254.70 1,273.70 1,273.70
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 718.58 656.09 1,312.19
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 318.67 334.29 1,337.18
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 132.47 136.22 1,362.17
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,493.08 1,504.08 1,247.47
.9999 bar 1.00 1,254.07 1,261.70 1,261.70
SPOT SILVER: 16.52      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.50 33.33
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.00 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,561.55 11,847.55 16.57
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,696.40 4,851.40 16.45
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,632.00 1,667.00 16.67
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 166.70 171.70 17.17
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.32 16.92 16.92
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.02 19.52 19.52
SPOT PLATINUM: 924.70      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 939.70 969.70 969.70
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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