The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 23 June a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  16-Jun-17 23-Jun-17 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,663.60 1,662.80 -0.80 -0.0
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,254.00 1,256.20 2.20 0.2
Gold/silver ratio 75.379 75.547 0.169 0.2
Silver/gold ratio 0.0133 0.0132 -0.0000 -0.2
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 352.51 352.07 -0.44 -0.1
Dow in gold ounces 17.05 17.03 -0.02 -0.1
Dow in Silver ounces 1,285.42 1,286.67 1.25 0.1
Dow Industrials 21,384.28 21,394.76 10.48 0.0
S&P500 2,433.15 2,438.30 5.15 0.2
US dollar index 96.87 96.94 0.07 0.1
Platinum 925.90 928.50 2.60 0.3
Palladium 888.65 874.55 -14.10 -1.6

For all the distance market's moved -- budged -- they might as well have stayed shut this week. Somebody hold a mirror under their noses to see if they're still breathing. Looks like the US dollar index rose this week, but it's a liar. May have finished marginally higher than last week, but closed way below the week's high.

More evil milestones: A Nebraska Democrat was recorded saying, "I'm glad he got shot . . . I wish he was [expletive] dead." He was talking about House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA) who was shot at the Republican baseball practice June 14. And that great political philosopher Johnny Depp, who knows even more about political philosophy than he does about acting, commented to a crowd in a festival in England, "Can we bring Trump here? When was the last time an actor assassinated a president?"

The approval of violence leads to more violence.

Markets are wheel spinning, so I have little to say. US dollar index, chart right here http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT Is going nowhere, failing every time it reaches for 97.75. Yeah, yeah, it might be bottoming, but 'tis just as likely the Nice Government Men have their fat pasty thumbs on the scale manipulating it because they don't want to scare the itty-bitty euro. Economic reasoning bears no role in this drama. Today the dollar index tumbled again, ending the week by skidding 36 basis points (0.37% to 95.94. Close above 97.75 takes it higher, close below 96.30 takes it lower. All the rest in between is styrofoam peanuts, just filler.

Stocks stalled this week, edging backward after new highs, not improving their advance. Today the Dow Industrials lost 2.53 to 21,394.76. S&P gainsaid by adding 3.8 to 2,438.30. Chart can be seen here, http://schrts.co/vtdPMb Y'all may think I'm just blowing smoke when I say stocks look exhausted, puttering to a stop with a half-pint of sorry gas in their tank. Ready to drop. Look for yourself, http://schrts.co/vtdPMb

Not my opinion only. Yesterday the stock market flashed its sixth Hindenburg Omen since 31 May. Think of a Hindenburg Omen as the severe pain that occurs before a heart attack. Next three months will not be gentle to stocks.

Silver & gold took advantage of the stumbling US dollar. Gold rose $8.60 (0.7%) to $1,256.20 while silver added 13.8¢ to 1662.8¢.

None of this is spectacular, but it is solidly positive. Gold chart's here, http://schrts.co/an3XWh

Ponder, think, reflect: this week gold touched its 200 day moving average (frequent correction target of rising markets) and in four days (1) pierced the downtrend line from the July 2016 high and (2) touched its 50 DMA today. Solid, if not spectacular. Advancing. RSI, MACD, RoC turning up. Acting just about as it should act during the seasonally low period.

Or look at silver, http://schrts.co/o96FnV

This week it struck that downtrend line from last July's high, an closed the week smack on the uptrend line from the December 2015 low. I'm happy with that. RSI, MACD, & RoC are turning up. Cut silver some slack! It's the seasonal downtime.

It's very early to tell, but the lows we have just seen ought to end this decline. Metals will likely march sideways to slightly higher through July, stiffening into August, and if they follow the usual seasonality, rallying into September.

I eat my own cooking. I told y'all to buy, and I've been buying myself.

Speaking of cooking, I was down on my hands and knees this morning fishing in the kitchen cabinet for something when I came across Susan's -- I don't know what it's called -- knife mixer. It's not a blender, but has a wicked sharp double crescent shaped blade to chop things.

It made me remember how Susan wielded it around Christmas time. She loved to bake, and for the folks at the post office, the bank, whomever she dealt with frequently, she would make the "cake that used no flour." Actually, it is a delicious, moist coconut and pecan cake which really doesn't call for flour: it's made out of vanilla wafers. (I might fin the recipe. Email me if you want it,in case I do.)

She would crank up that blender monster and grind those vanilla wafers to powder and spend hours baking those cakes and wrapping them in foil and paper and ribbon. She could have bought cakes at Kroger, of course, and not spent all that time, but she wanted to give the people she loved something from her own hand. She delighted in their delight -- and in keeping the recipe a secret. (I am not bound by that rule.)

Men, women have a graciousness in love that we just can't match, and they work at it (thank God). But even though we can't match it, we can appreciate & praise it. Don't ever miss a chance to praise your wife. Find one tonight.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
23-Jun-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,256.20 8.60 0.7
Silver, $/oz 16.63 0.14 0.8
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.547 0.511 0.7
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0132 0.0001 0.8
Platinum 928.50 3.80 0.4
Palladium 874.55 -23.85 -2.7
S&P 500 2,438.30 3.80 0.2
Dow 21,394.76 -2.53 -0.0
Dow in GOLD $s 352.07 -2.43 -0.7
Dow in GOLD oz 17.03 -0.12 -0.7
Dow in SILVER oz 1,286.67 -10.92 -0.8
US Dollar Index 96.94 -0.36 -0.4
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,257.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,268.29 1,299.73 1,299.73
1/2 AE 0.50 640.87 663.38 1,326.77
1/4 AE 0.25 323.57 337.98 1,351.92
1/10 AE 0.10 131.94 137.71 1,377.07
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,221.61 1,230.61 1,255.46
British sovereign 0.24 298.26 311.26 1,322.26
French 20 franc 0.19 232.45 236.45 1,266.45
Krugerrand 1.00 1,266.40 1,276.40 1,276.40
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,262.63 1,281.60 1,281.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 723.12 660.24 1,320.48
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 320.69 336.41 1,345.63
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 133.31 137.08 1,370.78
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,502.52 1,513.52 1,255.30
.9999 bar 1.00 1,262.00 1,269.60 1,269.60
SPOT SILVER: 16.65      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.50 33.33
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.00 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,618.75 11,904.75 16.65
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,734.75 4,889.75 16.58
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,645.00 1,680.00 16.80
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 168.00 173.00 17.30
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.45 17.05 17.05
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.15 19.65 19.65
SPOT PLATINUM: 928.50      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Platinum Platypus 1.00 943.50 973.50 973.50
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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