Sorry I missed y'all yesterday, but I just had too much day to fit into 24 hours. After a week's absence, here's what markets look like:
Look at the US dollar index and tell me if it don't look sorry as gully dirt, http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT ,
It broke down through the neckline of a head & shoulders top, and has kept on breaking down. It failed at an attempt to recover up through the latest broken support. Right now it must re-conquer 96.26 above, a mere 75 basis points. No signs of life in other indicators.
This chart does not show today's trading. Dollar index closed up 9 basis points (0.09%) at 95.56. Dollar index has made no move toward recovering, and still points down.
Stocks today rose. Dow gained 123.07 (0.57%) to $21,532.14 & the S&P500 added 17.72 (0.73%) to 2,443.25. See S&P500 chart right here, http://schrts.co/vtdPMb
Stocks took well today Fed Chairthing Janet Yellen's congressional testimony demonstrating that she doesn't know sic 'em from come here & that she still plans to wreck the economy. I don't understand anything any more. I reckon I AM aonly a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee.
Technically both the Dow & S&P500 have traced out megaphone or broadening top formations. Those usually end by succumbing to gravity, but stocks are at a manic top, so expect no sense.
Today Comex gold rose $4.50 (0.4%) to $1,218.10. Silver gained 14.2¢ to 1583.9¢.
Start with the gold chart right here, http://schrts.co/xKAH13
First glance looks wretched, but look closer. After the plunge on 7 July gold made a low at $1,204 on 10 July with a key reversal upward confirmed by the last two days' trading. The RSI has turned up from a deep low and the MACD is hooking up as if it means to turn up, too. None of this amounts to a hill of beans until gold can penetrate that downtrend line, today about $1,225. Closing at $1,218.10 leaves it below resistance. Trend in force remains in force until broken, and right now gold's trend is down. That key reversal has turned the short term trend up, but is it strong enough to escape the dungeon below that downtrend line? Only whispered answer I hear is this: premiums on gold coins have strengthened, indicating retail buying.
Silver chart is a doozy, http://schrts.co/xKAH13
I know not what afflicted the usually reliable StockCharts.com, but the 7 July bar contains a gross error. Comex low that day was $15.30, but this chart shows a 1434¢ low that day. If it was indeed 1530¢, then the next day traded to a new low fort he move, but closed higher: a key reversal, since confirmed by two more days' climb.
The RSI above shows an overbought low on the 7th silver, followed by a rise. So far, so good. The MACD below also is hooking upwards. To my taste silver must clear 1600¢, then quickly after that 1625¢ to confirm any turnaround. This being the seasonal low time of the year, there's a good chance that low on 7 July might have marked the decline's end, but that must first be confirmed by higher prices and upward breaks through downtrend lines.
Now glance at the gold/silver ratio here, http://schrts.co/8rvjxi
Again I believe we are dealing with an erring entry at that 79.62 high. That bar is the entry for 7 July, same day that the silver chart shows a low 96¢ lower than actual. Since then the ratio has fallen back under the dotted green channel line, but it must fall through the dotted red uptrend line to PROVE it has turned down.
So the last week has produced a lot of turmoil, but view that against a background of summer markets lightly traded and at seasonal lows for silver & gold & it's risky to jump to any conclusions. Working hypothesis at this moment is that silver & gold bottomed last week but will not begin any serious gains before August, and that stocks are topping. US dollar index might turn up again, but the weight of present appearance opposes that.
I vacationed in Eugene, Oregon where I stayed with long-time friends. As the Germans say to describe living high on the hog, you can live like God in France in Oregon. If it may be eaten or drunk, they've got it there. Even if it may be smoked, as long as it's only dope and not the demon tobacco, it may be smoked there. Providence kept me out of the dope and drugs scene: I was a senior in college and 21 years old before I ever even saw anybody smoke a joint.
Oregon's the place where you can fire up a joint but are forbidden by law to pump your own gas. I nearly got arrested one time for chewing gum [sic] in the state aquarium. That's when I learned the Oregon state motto, "We never met a rule we didn't like." Odd how old hippies turn into dictators. I guess the Greeks were right, that eventually any extreme turns into its opposite.
Susan & I took numerous vacations in Oregon. Whole trip I was having "flashbacks," remembering what Susan & I did there, or there. I'd see women who by some gesture or mannerism or hair do brought Susan to remembrance. I confess, I can't get her out of my mind after 50 years of loving her. At least now much of the sorrow has departed, but I am still filled with the most intense longing for her. Every time I see a young woman with small children I want to run up to her husband & say, "Look! Look what you've got! Don't miss a moment, love her!"
But if I had done that in Oregon, I'd have been arrested for sure, either as a lunatic or a rulebreaker. They'd have locked me in that jail where they keep fools who try to pump their own gas.
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger