Here's an unusual note. US dollar index was FLAT today. Closed same as yesterday. How could such a thing happen?
Simple: Fed Chairthing Janet Yellen was testificating on Capitol Hill. Seems her testimony had as many "on the other hands" as an Indian goddess, and it just flat bumfuzzled currency markets. Stocks -- on the other hand -- are in a manic blowoff and they'll rise on any news.
So yesterday the dollar closed at 95.761 and today at 95.762. Wow. Some hot action. I'm tellin' y'all, that scrofulous dollar index is looking sicker all the time. Appears that head & shoulders top nobody wanted to believe really was a top after all. Ooooo -- and the dollar index has SO FAR to fall.
Stocks rose an itty bit today. Dow found 20.95 somewhere (0.03%) to close at 21,553.09. S&P500 rose 4.58 (0.2%) to 2,447.83. Look at the Dow chart, http://schrts.co/Q6KUW0
Now THAT is a broadening top. Market keeps challenging past highs, but falls back every time to lower lows. Sure, it's possible the Dow could resolve out of that upward, but not likely. Notice yesterday's gap up move stopped right at the megaphone's upper boundary? Reckon that was random, or was it something in the market?
That brings me to silver & gold. Comex today saw gold lose $1.80 (0.15%) to $1,216.30. Silver dropped 19.7¢ (1.2%) to 1564.2¢.
Y'all are going to think I'm crazy as a betsy bug, but I like that move in silver. Every one of those tumbles sends more of them pointy-toe shoe hot money hedge fund managers & other speculators OUT of silver. To do that, they sell their silver futures positions. That shows up in the Commitments of Traders published weekly. In the COTs the "commercials" are the market makers who fade all the speculators' bets. And since they are the professionals in the market, when speculators are buying (going long), they are selling ("going short"). When the commercials positions balloon out, it reflects lots of speculative buying, and is probably a time to sell. When the commercials' positions are shrinking to lows, it's time to buy. Right now commercial COTs have shrunk to their lowest level since January 2016, when that bodacious rally began. Oh, they need to fall a leetle more still, but by next week might be smaller still.
Here's a link to silver's daily chart, http://schrts.co/o96FnV
All that happened was that silver hit the downtrend line from the 2011 high and -- surprise, surprise -- it fell back. 'Tain't nearabout the end of the world. Oh, silver still needs to pierce 1600¢, but it will, don't doubt it. Right now's when y'all ought to be BUYING to build a nice low price into your position.
Paralleling silver, Gold's COTs for commercials are at their lowest level since February 2016, yes, right when that big rally was beginning that would run to July. COT's need to drop a little more, as does open interest, but both are nearing turnaround levels.
Here is gold's daily chart, http://schrts.co/fFFU3j
Gold/silver ratio popped up today. Look at it, http://schrts.co/kh9gOy
This chart ain't making me think about opening a vein. Looks as it should coming off a price low for silver & gold. Yea, there's a little nail-bitin' here, but not much.
Once again I will say it, so just cover your ears if y'all don't want to hear it: This is the seasonal low spot for silver & gold, and that means TIME TO BUY, not time to run away. Some folks wouldn't believe you if you told 'em fat meat is greasy, but that's just the price of being no more'n a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee. Don't nobody believe a thang y'say.
SPECIAL OFFER: IMPAIRED SILVER AMERICAN EAGLES & MAPLE LEAVES
It's well known that I love silver American Eagles & Maple Leaves just like a mongoose loves cobras. Reason is plain: too expensive. I always go for the lowest price per ounce, not premium , because in the 37 years I've been doing this, I've learned that over time, premium always disappears.
But what if you didn't have to pay that punishing premium, more than two bucks above the price of silver rounds? At that point, I'd start cogitating. After a coin made in the US or Canada would probably be more barterable when Janet Yellen gets her way and punctures the US economy and the dollar.
I discovered that one of our wholesalers has a large stock of IMPAIRED silver American Eagles and silver Maple Leaves. What does "impaired" mean? Not bent or holed, but dings on the edges, scratched, milky spots, discolored, or abrasions. All the silver remains.
Here's the deal: I can sell these not at $2 more than silver rounds, not at $1.50, not at $1.00, but only seven CENTS more than silver rounds. At that price, my resistance melts & evaporates.
I can sell these only in minimum lots of 200 coins, And I am going to wait for y'all to call us before we lock in a price. However, here's an indication. With spot silver at $15.75, we would charge is $16.79, a 6.6% premium over silver. At the same spot, we'd charge $16.72 for generic one ounce silver rounds, 7¢ less. At $16.79 each, a 200 piece lot of impaired Eagles or Maples would cost $3,358.00 plus $35 shipping, a total of $3,393.00.
Reason I can't give y'all a fixed price is that I don't yet know what the spot silver price will be when you call. If silver is higher when you call, they'll cost more. If silver is lower, then less.
Remember, I am selling these as IMPAIRED silver Eagles or Maple Leaves, NOT bright shining perfect. If you receive them and call me complaining they're IMPAIRED, I'll roll my eyes, draw in a deep breath, and try not to cuss because you didn't pay a lick of attention.
Here's how to order: call us at (931) 766-6066 and we will enter the order based on the current spot silver price. I have ONLY 25 lots available, so decide ahead of time whether you want Eagles or Maples, and whether you will substitute one for the other.
Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.
All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow One week (7 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:
1. You may order by only by phoning (931) 766-6066. Sorry, we can't ship into Tennessee or outside the United States.
2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.
If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.
3. Once your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation.
4. You must send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. Check just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards.
Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, if you send a check you'll see your order in about one month; a wire, about a week.
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger