The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 13 July a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

Here's an unusual note. US dollar index was FLAT today. Closed same as yesterday. How could such a thing happen?

Simple: Fed Chairthing Janet Yellen was testificating on Capitol Hill. Seems her testimony had as many "on the other hands" as an Indian goddess, and it just flat bumfuzzled currency markets. Stocks -- on the other hand -- are in a manic blowoff and they'll rise on any news.

So yesterday the dollar closed at 95.761 and today at 95.762. Wow. Some hot action. I'm tellin' y'all, that scrofulous dollar index is looking sicker all the time. Appears that head & shoulders top nobody wanted to believe really was a top after all. Ooooo -- and the dollar index has SO FAR to fall.

Stocks rose an itty bit today. Dow found 20.95 somewhere (0.03%) to close at 21,553.09. S&P500 rose 4.58 (0.2%) to 2,447.83. Look at the Dow chart,

Now THAT is a broadening top. Market keeps challenging past highs, but falls back every time to lower lows. Sure, it's possible the Dow could resolve out of that upward, but not likely. Notice yesterday's gap up move stopped right at the megaphone's upper boundary? Reckon that was random, or was it something in the market?

That brings me to silver & gold. Comex today saw gold lose $1.80 (0.15%) to $1,216.30. Silver dropped 19.7¢ (1.2%) to 1564.2¢.

Y'all are going to think I'm crazy as a betsy bug, but I like that move in silver. Every one of those tumbles sends more of them pointy-toe shoe hot money hedge fund managers & other speculators OUT of silver. To do that, they sell their silver futures positions. That shows up in the Commitments of Traders published weekly. In the COTs the "commercials" are the market makers who fade all the speculators' bets. And since they are the professionals in the market, when speculators are buying (going long), they are selling ("going short"). When the commercials positions balloon out, it reflects lots of speculative buying, and is probably a time to sell. When the commercials' positions are shrinking to lows, it's time to buy. Right now commercial COTs have shrunk to their lowest level since January 2016, when that bodacious rally began. Oh, they need to fall a leetle more still, but by next week might be smaller still.

Here's a link to silver's daily chart,

All that happened was that silver hit the downtrend line from the 2011 high and -- surprise, surprise -- it fell back. 'Tain't nearabout the end of the world. Oh, silver still needs to pierce 1600¢, but it will, don't doubt it. Right now's when y'all ought to be BUYING to build a nice low price into your position.

Paralleling silver, Gold's COTs for commercials are at their lowest level since February 2016, yes, right when that big rally was beginning that would run to July. COT's need to drop a little more, as does open interest, but both are nearing turnaround levels.

Here is gold's daily chart,

Gold/silver ratio popped up today. Look at it,

This chart ain't making me think about opening a vein. Looks as it should coming off a price low for silver & gold. Yea, there's a little nail-bitin' here, but not much.

Once again I will say it, so just cover your ears if y'all don't want to hear it: This is the seasonal low spot for silver & gold, and that means TIME TO BUY, not time to run away. Some folks wouldn't believe you if you told 'em fat meat is greasy, but that's just the price of being no more'n a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee. Don't nobody believe a thang y'say.


It's well known that I love silver American Eagles & Maple Leaves just like a mongoose loves cobras. Reason is plain: too expensive. I always go for the lowest price per ounce, not premium , because in the 37 years I've been doing this, I've learned that over time, premium always disappears.

But what if you didn't have to pay that punishing premium, more than two bucks above the price of silver rounds? At that point, I'd start cogitating. After a coin made in the US or Canada would probably be more barterable when Janet Yellen gets her way and punctures the US economy and the dollar.

I discovered that one of our wholesalers has a large stock of IMPAIRED silver American Eagles and silver Maple Leaves. What does "impaired" mean? Not bent or holed, but dings on the edges, scratched, milky spots, discolored, or abrasions. All the silver remains.

Here's the deal: I can sell these not at $2 more than silver rounds, not at $1.50, not at $1.00, but only seven CENTS more than silver rounds. At that price, my resistance melts & evaporates.

I can sell these only in minimum lots of 200 coins, And I am going to wait for y'all to call us before we lock in a price. However, here's an indication. With spot silver at $15.75, we would charge is $16.79, a 6.6% premium over silver. At the same spot, we'd charge $16.72 for generic one ounce silver rounds, 7¢ less. At $16.79 each, a 200 piece lot of impaired Eagles or Maples would cost $3,358.00 plus $35 shipping, a total of $3,393.00.

Reason I can't give y'all a fixed price is that I don't yet know what the spot silver price will be when you call. If silver is higher when you call, they'll cost more. If silver is lower, then less.

Remember, I am selling these as IMPAIRED silver Eagles or Maple Leaves, NOT bright shining perfect. If you receive them and call me complaining they're IMPAIRED, I'll roll my eyes, draw in a deep breath, and try not to cuss because you didn't pay a lick of attention.

Here's how to order: call us at (931) 766-6066 and we will enter the order based on the current spot silver price. I have ONLY 25 lots available, so decide ahead of time whether you want Eagles or Maples, and whether you will substitute one for the other.

Special Conditions:

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow One week (7 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by only by phoning (931) 766-6066. Sorry, we can't ship into Tennessee or outside the United States.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Once your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation.

4. You must send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. Check just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, if you send a check you'll see your order in about one month; a wire, about a week.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
13-Jul-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,216.30 -1.80 -0.15%
Silver, $/oz 15.64 -0.19 -1.20%
Gold/Silver Ratio 77.759 0.823 1.07%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0129 -0.0001 -1.06%
Platinum 904.50 -11.80 -1.29%
Palladium 865.85 -6.80 -0.78%
S&P 500 2,447.38 4.58 0.19%
Dow 21,553.09 20.95 0.10%
Dow in GOLD $s 366.31 0.90 0.25%
Dow in GOLD oz 17.72 0.04 0.25%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,377.90 17.92 1.32%
US Dollar Index 95.76 0.00 0.00%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,215.70      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,235.15 1,256.43 1,256.43
1/2 AE 0.50 638.32 629.12 1,258.25
1/4 AE 0.25 312.79 322.16 1,288.64
1/10 AE 0.10 128.76 131.90 1,319.03
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,180.90 1,189.90 1,213.94
British sovereign 0.24 288.32 301.32 1,280.04
French 20 franc 0.19 224.70 228.70 1,224.97
Krugerrand 1.00 1,224.21 1,234.21 1,234.21
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,221.78 1,231.78 1,231.78
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 699.03 638.24 1,276.49
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 310.00 325.20 1,300.80
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 128.86 132.51 1,325.11
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,452.46 1,463.46 1,213.78
.9999 bar 1.00 1,217.70 1,225.70 1,225.70
SPOT SILVER: 15.61      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.50 33.33
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.00 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 10,839.40 11,125.40 15.56
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,427.95 4,575.95 15.51
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,511.00 1,586.00 15.86
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 155.10 158.60 15.86
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.56 15.96 15.96
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.26 17.66 17.66
SPOT PLATINUM: 904.50      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 919.50 949.50 949.50
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Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.