The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 19 July a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

Yesterday the US dollar index had a nasty bad day, plunging 50 basis points (0.53%) to close at 94.40. You can see that on the chart here, but this chart lacks today's trading.

It's a break to a new low, but like a rattlesnake you THINK is dead, you want proof the dollar index has broken down and that this is not selling exhaustion that marks a low. Today it rallied 43 basis points (0.34%) to 94.83, but that doesn't prove anything. Dollar index would have to climb over 95.25 even to begin to be a candidate for turning around. The interest rate differential between the US 10 year treasury note and German 10 year treasury note continues to narrow & that's making the dollar less attractive, especially with Yellow Janet crawfishing on raising interest rates. However, the dollar is reaching an extremely oversold level on the RSI (above) which suggest a turn-up might not be too far distant.

Stocks are poking into the top boundary of that Megaphone Top pattern. S&P500 is here, Dow poked its heed through that line four days ago, but has since fallen back. Today it closed a skootch above it. Not dispositive -- talking out of both sides of its mouth like a parricide throwing himself on the mercy of the court because he's an orphan.

Dow added today 46.33, a little less than it lost yesterday. That 0.21% rise took it to 21,621.06. S&P500 made a new all time high, rising 10.71 (0.44%) to 2,471.32. Looks like topping, eking out bare new highs on flat or low volume.

Ten year treasury note yield, proxy for all interest rates, broke out upside in June, peaked, & fell back to touch its ganged 20, 50, & 200 day moving averages. That's a likely spot for it to turn back up. Chart's here,

Lots o' folks think higher interest rates hurt gold, which payeth no interest. They do, over a certain range. But today the debt is gigantic, biggest in history, and rising rates threaten an economic disaster, so the faster rates rise, the more they may help gold. Folks will be looking for safety.

Silver & gold both rose today, but not enough to inspire any applause. Silver on Comes added 2.9¢ to 1625.1¢ & gold added -- wait for it -- ten cents to $1,241.20.

Gaze upon the gold chart,

It has pierced the downtrend line and 200 DMA and is aiming toward the 50 DMA. Kryptonite radiation is coming from that $1,245 - 1,250 area where gold will hit the downtrend line from the July 2016 high. Don't be fooled -- a whopping big rally is coming.

Now gaze upon silver,

Starting from the chart's bottom, the MACD has turned up. The red arrow points to silver pushing against the downtrend line from the June high. It has already punched through the 20 DMA. Up above the RSI is pointlets from throwing a leg over 50 for a rally. No buzzards circling over this chart.

Daily my opinion hardens more & more: Silver & gold are about to stage a boar hog rally, pushing through everything toward those 2013 breakdown points, eyes bloodshot with revenge. Not only should you be buying, this is a last change to swap gold for silver at these high ratios.

"Face" and "countenance" are not the same. Face comprises only the physical features, but countenance shows the soul shining through.

Can't hide your deeds and life from others, because your face shows everything. Vice or virtue all leaves its impress there. That witness alone would be bad enough, but there are politicians and actors and actresses I literally can't bear to look on. Their countenance screams evil.

Even a woman who might not have "beautiful" features may be stunningly beautiful when the inward beauty and purity of her soul glows thru her countenance. My late wife Susan was a very pretty woman, but her loving soul shining through her countenance took my breath away. Here's a link to a picture made when our youngest son & seventh child, Zachariah, must have been about a year old, so Susan would have been 41, maybe in late 1987 or early 1988. Her joyous countenance and utter lack of fear all appear here. She's ready for anything. She always was because she trusted God for the outcome.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
19-Jul-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,241.20 0.10 0.01%
Silver, $/oz 16.25 0.03 0.18%
Gold/Silver Ratio 76.377 -0.130 -0.17%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0131 0.0000 0.17%
Platinum 921.60 -6.10 -0.66%
Palladium 864.15 -5.25 -0.60%
S&P 500 2,471.32 10.71 0.44%
Dow 21,621.06 46.03 0.21%
Dow in GOLD $s 360.09 0.74 0.21%
Dow in GOLD oz 17.42 0.04 0.21%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,330.44 0.46 0.03%
US Dollar Index 94.83 0.43 0.46%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,240.40      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,255.28 1,281.95 1,281.95
1/2 AE 0.50 651.30 641.91 1,283.81
1/4 AE 0.25 319.15 328.71 1,314.82
1/10 AE 0.10 131.38 134.58 1,345.83
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,204.90 1,213.90 1,238.42
British sovereign 0.24 294.18 307.18 1,304.93
French 20 franc 0.19 229.27 233.27 1,249.42
Krugerrand 1.00 1,247.84 1,257.84 1,257.84
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,246.60 1,256.60 1,256.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 713.23 651.21 1,302.42
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 316.30 331.81 1,327.23
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 131.48 135.20 1,352.04
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,481.97 1,492.97 1,238.26
.9999 bar 1.00 1,242.40 1,250.40 1,250.40
SPOT SILVER: 16.22      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.50 33.33
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.00 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,347.05 11,633.05 16.27
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,607.90 4,755.90 16.12
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,572.00 1,647.00 16.47
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 161.20 164.70 16.47
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.17 16.57 16.57
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 16.97 18.27 18.27
SPOT PLATINUM: 921.60      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 936.60 966.60 966.60
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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