The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 4 August a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  28-Jul-17 4-Aug-17 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,666.40 1,622.20 -44.20 -2.7
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,268.40 1,258.30 -10.10 -0.8
Gold/silver ratio 76.116 77.568 1.451 1.9
Silver/gold ratio 0.0131 0.0129 -0.0002 -1.9
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 355.78 362.95 7.17 2.0
Dow in gold ounces 17.21 17.56 0.35 2.0
Dow in Silver ounces 1,310.03 1,361.90 51.88 4.0
Dow Industrials 21,830.31 22,092.81 262.50 1.2
S&P500 2,472.10 2,476.83 4.73 0.2
US dollar index 93.11 93.50 0.39 0.4
Platinum 933.20 966.00 32.80 3.5
Palladium 885.25 879.50 -5.75 -0.6

As I suspected after a long rally, gold & silver got whacked here at the week's end. Look at that non-confirmation: Dow Industrials up 1.2%, S&P500 up .2%. Dollar showed some signs of life today.

Interesting note today from a reader who works in a medium-size bank. For the last two months he's noticed that the number of loan delinquent notices they send monthly has jumped 30% from a year ago. Says also he's been tracking it for a couple of years, and this jump is unusual for summertime.

Today the dollar index managed a little mouse-burp rally of 79 basis points (0.9%), closing at 93.50. Yet that was enough to send the euro & yen running and to slap silver & gold. Technically, today's rise proves nothing yet, except that after 22 days of mostly dropping like an anvil off a ten story building the dollar can rally a little, after all. Still, it might be a harbinger of higher dollar to come. Low so far this move has been 92.39, and support likes at 91.9 - 92.0, so today MIGHT mark a turnaround. Might also mark a dead cat bounce. Dollar really hasn't proven anything until it throws a leg over the 20 day moving average, now at 94.18. Only a close above 95.72 (50 DMA) would prove a turnaround.

Stock indices continue to quibble & gainsay each other. Only the Dow Industrials average -- alone -- has been able to make new highs. Today the industrials did that again, rising 66.71 (0.3%) to 22,092.81. S&P500 today rose 4.67 (0.2%) to 2,476.83.

Look at what I mean on the Dow Industrials chart, See where it breaks through the upper boundary of the megaphone? Now look at the S&P500 chart, Notice no breakout appears. I could show you Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 charts just like the S&P500. That disagreement, plus a dinosaur-bone ancient bull market plus bizarre overvaluation, bears witness to a top.

But who am I , a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee? What's my lowlife opinion worth next to the opinions of those who earn gazillions yearly selling and touting stocks?

US dollar laid a pole across the pates of silver & gold today. Gold fell $9.50 (0.8%) to $1,258.30 while silver lost 37.2¢ (2.2%) to 1622.2¢.

Ginrally I hate to hear anybody say, "I told you so," but this one was so obvious I can't help myself. Look at the gold chart,

Gold staged a stout run from the July 10 low, straight up. But even hopeless optimists know that no tree grows to the sky, so that sort of angle of ascent is bound to be bent after nearly a month. Most likely target is the 50 day moving average now at $1,253.64. That also roughly runs together with the downtrend line from the July 2016 high, so that offers even more support. Put on your bargain shoes for a buy next week. This little correction won't last long.

Silver is in the selfsame state as gold. Look at the chart,

Most likely target will be the downtrend line from the July 2016 high, now about 1585¢. Before that, however, comes in lateral support at 1606¢. Timing is the same as gold, however. Correction should find its end next week.

Stubborn nat'ral born durn Tennessee fool that I am, I remain persuaded that a whoppin' huge gold and silver rally is building. Therefore I view all these declines as chances to buy on sale.

By the way, the wholesale buy premium on gold American Eagles exactly matched that on Krugerrands today, for the first time ever. Proves the point: over time, premium ALWAYS disappears.

Forgive me if I told y'all this before, but it's worth hearing more than twice.

My beloved wife Susan had a way of distilling wisdom into one short sentence. She wouldn't say a lot, she wouldn't philosophize, she didn't agitate & cogitate cogitate & weave back & forth like I do. She just never said anything until she could sum it all up in one astonishingly pithy statement to which nothing need ever be added. So I, even hard-headed I, learned to remain alert for these Delphic oracles.

Maybe a year ago we were talking while preparing supper -- I still remember where we were standing -- when she said, as if summing up a cosmic order so obvious everyone ought to know it, "You know, all women have low self-esteem."

If a carload of bricks had dropped out of the ceiling on my head, I couldn't have been stunned more. This was coming from the mouth of the most self-confident, the bravest, the most self-contained person I have ever known.

As I mused, sorrow and sadness filled me, not that I had failed Susan. I'm sure I often failed her, but for heaven's sake, just like it says in the Book of Common Prayer wedding service I "worshipped" her. No, my sorrow was not only for her but also for ALL women in a world where they are constantly bombarded by commercial messages of their worthlessness and failure. 24 hours a day advertisements scream at them, "You are too fat! You are too skinny! You're not tall enough! Your rear's too big, your rear's too small, your clothes are all wrong, your make-up's wrong, your body's wrong!"

Merciful heavens, I don't know how women remain sane. I don't.

Here's my point, husbands: Your wife is perfect as she is, made in the image of God for you, and you have to tell her so -- frequently -- as an antidote to that poison all those ads aim at her.

And all those advertisers can just go straight to hell.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
4-Aug-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,258.30 -9.50 -0.7
Silver, $/oz 16.22 -0.37 -2.2
Gold/Silver Ratio 77.568 -0.568 -0.7
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0129 -0.0003 -2.2
Platinum 966.00 4.40 0.5
Palladium 879.80 -6.50 -0.7
S&P 500 2,476.83 4.67 0.2
Dow 22,092.81 66.71 0.3
Dow in GOLD $s 362.95 3.84 1.1
Dow in GOLD oz 17.56 0.19 1.1
Dow in SILVER oz 1,361.90 34.55 2.6
US Dollar Index 93.50 0.79 0.9
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,258.30      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,265.85 1,300.45 1,300.45
1/2 AE 0.50 634.94 648.02 1,296.05
1/4 AE 0.25 322.18 328.73 1,314.92
1/10 AE 0.10 133.90 136.53 1,365.26
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,222.29 1,231.29 1,256.16
British sovereign 0.24 298.43 311.43 1,322.96
French 20 franc 0.19 232.58 236.58 1,267.14
Krugerrand 1.00 1,265.85 1,275.85 1,275.85
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,263.33 1,273.33 1,273.33
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 723.52 660.61 1,321.22
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 320.87 336.60 1,346.38
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 133.38 137.15 1,371.55
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,503.35 1,514.35 1,256.00
.9999 bar 1.00 1,256.30 1,268.30 1,268.30
SPOT SILVER: 16.29      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 20.50 24.50 32.03
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 14.50 17.50 22.88
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,432.85 11,718.85 16.39
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,628.55 4,776.55 16.19
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,619.00 1,659.00 16.59
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 161.90 274.55 27.45
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.24 16.67 16.67
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.04 18.29 18.29
SPOT PLATINUM: 966.00      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 984.00 1,006.00 1,006.00
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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