The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Thursday, 10 August a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  4-Aug-17 10-Aug-17 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,622.20 1,703.60 81.40 5.0
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,258.30 1,283.70 25.40 2.0
Gold/silver ratio 77.568 75.352 -2.215 -2.9
Silver/gold ratio 0.0129 0.0133 0.0004 2.9
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 362.95 351.76 -11.19 -3.1
Dow in gold ounces 17.56 17.02 -0.54 -3.1
Dow in Silver ounces 1,361.90 1,282.23 -79.68 -5.9
Dow Industrials 22,092.81 21,844.01 -248.80 -1.1
S&P500 2,476.83 2,438.21 -38.62 -1.6
US dollar index 93.50 93.29 -0.21 -0.2
Platinum 966.00 983.40 17.40 1.8
Palladium 879.50 902.05 22.55 2.6

Well, the nat'ral born durn fool done fouled up again. I got all dressed up for that funeral & set out for a three hour drive to Memphis. Got out the other side of Waynesboro and thought to check the dates. Turns out the visitation is today and the funeral tomorrow. I jes' laughed & turned around. Being a fool brings plenty of opportunities to laugh, especially at your own self.

Since I will definitely be at that funeral tomorrow & not here to write a commentary, I am sending this Friday summary today.

Today silver and gold broke through overhead resistance, and they threatened to do yesterday. Stocks were smashed, and the dollar index drooped yet again. Let's look closer.

'Twas a shockingly bad day and week for stocks. Here's the Dow Industrials chart, and the S&P500,

Gaze upon that S&P500 chart. Lost 35.81 (1.45%) to 2,438.21. Now when all indices faint together we understand that the Dow rising through the broadening wedge's top when all others refused to follow was a false breakout, a trap for bulls. A deep trap, with sharp stakes in the floor.

Dow Industrials plunged a huge 204.69 (0.93%) to 21,844.01. The Dow didn't close below its 50 day moving average,, but the S&P500 did. And the Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, & Russell 2000 weren't having good days either. Composite lost 2.13% and closed way below the uptrend line and intertwined 50 DMA. Nasdaq 100 slid 2.22% and also closed below its 50 DMA. What's that? The Russell 2000? Oh, mercy, it has busted down out of that rising wedge and closed today barely above its 200 DMA! Looks like Casey's up to bat in Stockville..

And I never gloat, it's bad taste. Still, I would like to show y'all the Dow in Gold here, It broke its uptrend today, and with just a little more falling will hit its 200 DMA.

Wait, wait. Did I forget the Dow in Silver? Well, here that is, Yes, yes, it broke the uptrend line, too, and closed below the 50 DMA.

Stocks are broker than the 10 Commandments.

Behold, and view the US dollar index chart, Although it dropped 10 basis points today to 93.29, notice that it has formed a V-bottom. Unless it contradicts by dropping below that 92.39 low, it promises to keep moving up.

The euro didn't accomplish much today (rose 0.08 to $1.1769), but the yen rose 0.75% to 91.61 & is trying to break out through the downtrend line stretching back to April. Chart's right here,

Gold jumped up $10.70 (0.8%) to $1,283.70. Silver leapt 20.2¢ (1.2%) to smash through 1700¢ and close at 1703.6¢.

Start with silver, bearing in mind that silver is so volatile that once it takes a notion it can blow through resistance like wet cardboard. Here's the chart,

See the three arrows? From left to right they mark the Low for this move, the touchback low that marks the bottom of wave 2, and the third arrow today where silver is knocking on the 200 DMA and on resistance just below 1725¢. Third wave up of this little move is beginning, so 1875¢ is the next target.

Glance at gold's chart,

Gold dipped through that green uptrend line to put a bottom on wave 2 near the 50 day moving average, then shot back up. High today was $1,293.80, and that overhead resistance stretches from $1,295 - $1,300. That is gold's next barrier, and it should breach that quickly and expeditiously -- maybe tomorrow.

It really doesn't matter that the catalyst is Trump's stick-poking at North Korea, as this move was already unfolding. That overcomes my usual reluctance to follow any move led by political turmoil --moves that usually fail. I don't believe this one will.

Gold's chief goal is $1,300. Once it batters through that barricade it will attract buyers like teenage girls attract teenage boys. Silver sailed over 1700¢ today without breaking a sweat or breathing hard.

Y'all listen now to my words, hear me: this rally is only beginning. Don't wait. Get on.

Y'all may think me ghoulish if I say I like to attend funerals. Well, not all funerals, but Christian funerals, because they do not yield an inch to death, but celebrate victory. In his "Incarnation of the Son of God" St. Athanasius of Alexandria (296 - 373) averred that one of the strongest proofs of Christianity is that it frees young men and old, women and maidens, even children from the fear of death, because what once terrified mankind Christ has conquered and left laughable.

So tomorrow I go to celebrate the victorious home-going of my brother and spiritual benefactor, Clint Early. By his five words timely and bravely spoken, he served God in changing my heart. I had no answer, but he did. Took more than a year, but I finally had to surrender. I praise God for his lfe.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
10-Aug-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,283.70 10.70 0.8
Silver, $/oz 17.04 0.20 1.2
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.352 0.619 0.8
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0133 0.0002 1.2
Platinum 983.40 10.10 1.0
Palladium 902.05 5.20 0.6
S&P 500 2,438.21 -35.81 -1.4
Dow 21,844.01 -204.69 -0.9
Dow in GOLD $s 351.76 -6.24 -1.7
Dow in GOLD oz 17.02 -0.30 -1.7
Dow in SILVER oz 1,282.23 -27.55 -2.1
US Dollar Index 93.29 -0.10 -0.1
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,285.70      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,294.70 1,304.70 1,304.70
1/2 AE 0.50 648.77 662.14 1,324.27
1/4 AE 0.25 329.20 335.89 1,343.56
1/10 AE 0.10 136.82 139.50 1,394.98
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,248.90 1,257.90 1,283.31
British sovereign 0.24 304.92 317.92 1,350.57
French 20 franc 0.19 237.64 241.64 1,294.27
Krugerrand 1.00 1,292.13 1,302.13 1,302.13
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,289.56 1,299.56 1,299.56
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 739.28 674.99 1,349.99
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 327.85 343.92 1,375.70
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 136.28 140.14 1,401.41
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,536.09 1,547.09 1,283.15
.9999 bar 1.00 1,283.70 1,295.70 1,295.70
SPOT SILVER: 17.08      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 20.50 24.50 32.03
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 14.50 17.50 22.88
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,961.95 12,247.95 17.13
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,861.60 5,009.60 16.98
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,698.00 1,738.00 17.38
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 169.80 300.87 30.09
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.03 17.46 17.46
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.83 19.08 19.08
SPOT PLATINUM: 983.40      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,001.40 1,023.40 1,023.40
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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