The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 15 August a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

Y'all, I'm running faster than a yeller tomcat thrown into a carload of pit bulls, but I wanted to whisper in y'all's ear about silver & gold's fall today.

"'Twarn't so much the lull in insults between Kim Jing-Jong & Trump as it was the dollar index' 42 basis point rise to 93.73 that hurt silver & gold.

Gold lost $10.50 (0.8%) on Comex for a $1,273.70 close. Ever-more-volatile silver lost 2.3% or 40.3¢ to 1669¢. Gold/silver ratio jumped up to 76.315.

Ponder the US dollar index chart, this from yesterday,

It has an embryonic uptrend from the 2 August low, and today crossed above the 50 DMA at 93.45 (today is absent from this chart). Dollar must still climb over 94 just to begin to confirm an turnaround.

Look at gold,

Uptrend remains intact. $1,270 should contain it.

Silver lives here,

Silver fell back to the all-mixed-up 20 & 50 DMAs as well as the upper boundary of the trading channel it broke through four days ago. Uptrend intact so far. Y'all bear in mind that it's still AUGUST, still seasonal struggling time for silver & gold.

Stocks gainsayed each other today, Dow rose, S&P500 fell, all other indices (I watch) fell. Most portentous was the Dow's itty rise of 5.28 points that failed to push it through 22,000 -- stopped at 21,998.99. Bad medicine for morale, very bad.

S&P500 chart's right here,

Behold that it smashed that one day through the 50 DMA, recovered two days, traded up to the 20 DMA and the downtrend line it broke down through (final kiss good-bye), and is now set up to resume falling.

I got a ricocheted rebuke from a friend yesterday -- that's what I call a "rebuke by good example." She reminded me that I must hold tightly to a cheerful expectation of God. Susan's death rather powerfully stanched my expectations for while, and I needed the reminder that God is making all things new, and good as former things were, they are not better than things to come, whatver we have to slog through to get there. That's not optimism, it's promise.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
15-Aug-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,273.70 -10.50 -0.82%
Silver, $/oz 16.69 -0.40 -2.36%
Gold/Silver Ratio 76.315 1.185 1.58%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0131 -0.0002 -1.55%
Platinum 964.90 -7.50 -0.77%
Palladium 897.05 -6.10 -0.68%
S&P 500 2,464.61 -1.23 -0.05%
Dow 21,998.99 5.28 0.02%
Dow in GOLD $s 357.04 3.00 0.85%
Dow in GOLD oz 17.27 0.15 0.85%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,318.09 31.39 2.44%
US Dollar Index 93.73 0.42 0.45%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,270.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,279.80 1,289.80 1,289.80
1/2 AE 0.50 641.30 654.51 1,309.03
1/4 AE 0.25 325.41 332.02 1,328.09
1/10 AE 0.10 135.24 137.89 1,378.93
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,234.52 1,243.52 1,268.64
British sovereign 0.24 301.41 314.41 1,335.66
French 20 franc 0.19 234.90 238.90 1,279.62
Krugerrand 1.00 1,277.25 1,287.25 1,287.25
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,274.71 1,284.71 1,284.71
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 730.77 667.22 1,334.45
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 324.08 339.97 1,359.86
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 134.72 138.53 1,385.28
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,518.41 1,529.41 1,268.48
.9999 bar 1.00 1,268.90 1,280.90 1,280.90
SPOT SILVER: 16.60      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 20.50 24.50 32.03
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 14.50 17.50 22.88
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,618.75 11,904.75 16.65
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,720.00 4,868.00 16.50
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,650.00 1,690.00 16.90
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 165.00 284.73 28.47
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.55 16.98 16.98
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.35 18.60 18.60
SPOT PLATINUM: 964.90      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 982.90 1,004.90 1,004.90
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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