The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 17 August a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

Yesterday's gold rise (commentators & other know-nothings opined) resulted from the Federal Open Mouth Committee minutes which suggested/hinted/guessed that the FOMC won't hurry to raise interest rates or trim its balance sheet. [That trimming operation resembles a 500 lb. man deciding to shed 10 lb.] Yet today in the teeth of a roughly 20 basis point dollar index rise, gold jumped yet more -- just looking from yesterday's aftermarket to today's, about six bucks. Dollar and gold rising together. Hmmmm.

This bolsters my suspicion that it is NOT alone Trump and Kim Jing-Jong slapping each other that is pumping up gold, but gold's secret, underlying determination to rally. That points to tenacious gold strength.

Particularly, the US dollar index rose 13 basis points to 93.57, but in the aftermarket is trading about 93.65, 21 bips above yesterday. Some of y'all may already have suspected that no love is lost between the scrofulous, scabby, perverse, parasitical US dollar index and me, and your suspicions are correct. Yet I will admit, looking at this here chart, missing today's entry, that the US dollar index seems to have bottomed early in August. It is outlining a bowl reversal, but must escape the lip at 94 to prove it.

Since I regularly look at markets over the SHORT term, here's a little seasoning to spice up y'all's LONG term perspective. Forget about the day to day moves. Entire financial mechanism of the United States and central banking is geared only toward inflating, and must inflate or die. Turning that upside down, inflate or die means "depreciate the dollar or die." They will create dollars like the sorcerer's apprentice until they drown the world in a sea of them, not to mention the venomous effects of their other economic policies related to the dollar.

Nobody's creating more gold or silver, although tiny bits are mined each year. Therefore, it is a lead pipe cinch, shooting fish in a rain barrel proposition that gold & silver will rise to levels that, if I dared to mention them, y'all would fit me for a strait jacket. That's the long term, and all else is hogwash.

Take that from a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee, for whut it's wuth.

Now stocks had one of them days that makes you just want to curl up in a ball and die. Dow dove 274.00 or 1.24% to 21,750.87 while the S&P500 lost 1.54% (38.05 points) to 2,430.06.

Behold, the Dow chart, and the S&P500,

First, gaze ye upon the Dow. Alone among stock indices, it formed a broadening top but threw over the top boundary, a frequent topping event. Traded back down to the boundary, rallied yet again to a lower high, then today collapsed, plunging though the 20 DMA and the megaphone's to boundary. Oh, yeah, the uptrend from November 2016, too. Sicker'n a dog puking up strychnined meat.

Next, ponder the S&P500. It never threw over the top megaphone boundary, which stopped it cold. Collapsed on 10 August, rallied back up to the trend line it had just cracked, kissed it good-by, then today sank through its 50 DMA to a new low. Looked like a man trying to swim in a chain mail suit.

Not to heap up a superfluity of evidence, but the Dow Transports today closed below their 200 DMA, as did the Russell 2000, while the Nasdaq Composite & the Nasdaq 100 fell through their 50 DMAs.

Gravity -- reality -- hath taken hold.

Let us now twist our heads the other way, away from paper & electrons & insubstantial assets & moonbeams, to silver & gold. Yesterday gold closed Comex at $1,276.90, up a tidy $3.20, but when the FOMC minutes came out after the close and wishy-washed around, aftermarket gold shot up to $1,282. Today gold continued the attack, gaining over yesterday's Comex close $9.50 (0.74%) to $1,286.40.

Comex silver yesterday rose 22.7¢ to 1691¢ then also got an FOMC boost to 1706.5¢. Today silver rose another 0.8% to 1703¢. Meanwhile platinum & palladium are running razorback hog wild.

Gold chart lies right here,

Thrice since April hath gold tested $1,300, and here it tests again -- third time's the charm. A successful break through at $1,300 will bring buyers swarming.

Silver's chart here, is not whispering but SHOUTING "Higher prices!" Silver is pounding on its 200 DMA and that 1725¢ barrier. Past 1725¢ it will shoot up, & that likely will begin tomorrow.

The awaited rally in silver & gold continues to roll out. Won't see these prices again.

SPECIAL OFFER NO 1: American Eagles & 1/10 Eagles

Premiums have plummeted on US American Eagle gold coins. I have bought more than I want to stock, so am making this little offer;

With gold at $1,288.30, I can sell Four (4) each one oz. gold American Eagles at $1,347 each with Ten (10) each 1/10 oz gold American eagles at $142.75 each, a total of $6,815.50 + 35 shipping or a grand total of $6,850.50

I have Six (6) lots only, and cannot sell at these prices once that stock is exhausted. That's 5.0000 troy ounces of gold total at a premium of 5.8% average. is 4.6% and

SPECIAL OFFER NO 2: U.S. $5 & $10 Gold Commemoratives

these stunning proof coins are so cheap It makes me gasp. I have Four (only) lots of Four (4) Each US $5 gold commemoratives (0.2418 troy ounce fine gold) and One each US$10 gold commemorative (0.4838 troy ounce fine gold).

Four (4) US$5 gold commems at $323.50 and One (1) each US $10 gold commem at $647 makes one lot cost $1,941.00, plus $35 shipping equals a grand total of $1,976.00. That's a total of 1.4510 ounces of gold at 3.8% premium over the melt value.

Sorry, I have five lots only, and these prices are good for those coins only.

As always, if you order multiple lots I charge only one shipping fee.

All sales are on a first come, first serve basis. Please do not call us or reply to this email. Email your order, INCLUDING your name, address, and phone number, to

Special Conditions:

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow One week (7 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by email only to Sorry, we can't ship into Tennessee or outside the United States.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Once your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation.

4. You must send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. Check just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, if you send a check you'll see your order in about one month; a wire, about a week.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
17-Aug-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,286.40 9.50 0.74%
Silver, $/oz 17.03 0.11 0.67%
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.537 0.057 0.08%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0132 -0.0000 -0.08%
Platinum 978.90 6.90 0.71%
Palladium 928.55 15.85 1.74%
S&P 500 2,430.06 -38.05 -1.54%
Dow 21,750.87 -274.00 -1.24%
Dow in GOLD $s 349.53 -7.04 -1.97%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.91 -0.34 -1.97%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,277.21 -24.73 -1.90%
US Dollar Index 93.57 0.13 0.14%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,288.30      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,296.03 1,306.03 1,306.03
1/2 AE 0.50 650.09 663.47 1,326.95
1/4 AE 0.25 329.87 336.57 1,346.27
1/10 AE 0.10 137.10 139.78 1,397.81
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,251.43 1,260.43 1,285.89
British sovereign 0.24 305.54 318.54 1,353.19
French 20 franc 0.19 238.12 242.12 1,296.84
Krugerrand 1.00 1,294.74 1,304.74 1,304.74
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,292.16 1,302.16 1,302.16
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 740.77 676.36 1,352.72
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 328.52 344.62 1,378.48
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 136.56 140.42 1,404.25
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,539.20 1,550.20 1,285.72
.9999 bar 1.00 1,286.30 1,298.30 1,298.30
SPOT SILVER: 17.02      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 20.50 24.50 32.03
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 14.50 17.50 22.88
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,915.48 12,201.48 17.07
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,842.43 4,990.43 16.92
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,691.50 1,731.50 17.32
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 169.15 298.66 29.87
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.97 17.40 17.40
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.77 19.02 19.02
SPOT PLATINUM: 978.90      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 996.90 1,018.90 1,018.90
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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