The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 1 September a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  25-Aug-17 1-Sep-17 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,704.90 1,771.90 67.00 3.9
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,292.50 1,324.50 32.00 2.5
Gold/silver ratio 75.811 74.750 -1.061 -1.4
Silver/gold ratio 0.0132 0.0134 0.0002 1.4
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 348.88 343.17 -5.72 -1.6
Dow in gold ounces 16.88 16.60 -0.28 -1.6
Dow in Silver ounces 1,279.47 1,240.90 -38.57 -3.0
Dow Industrials 21,813.67 21,987.56 173.89 0.8
S&P500 2,443.07 2,476.55 33.48 1.4
US dollar index 92.68 92.85 0.17 0.2
Platinum 976.30 1,007.30 31.00 3.2
Palladium 931.05 981.15 50.10 5.4

Some week! Stocks are stumbling, US dollar, whupped by Yellen's nothing speech, can't decide to bottom or not; silver & gold made good last Friday's breakouts, & palladium & platinum went nuts.

Both the top American central bank criminal, Janet Yellen, and the top European central bank criminal, Mario Draghi, blathered at the Jackson Hole Gathering. Wall Street, however, was expecting some hint around when they will raise interest rates. Having gotten nothing, Wall Street pouted & sold dollars. Interest rates dropped, and now that Hurricane Harvey has devastated Texas, chances of the Fed rising rates soon are sub-zero.

Here's the US dollar index chart, http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT It made a neat key reversal off that new intraday low, close higher the next day, but fainted trying to penetrate the 20 DMA. Came back today, up 21 Basis points (0.23%) to 92.85. This looks like a bottom capable of at least mounting a little snap back rally, but it must march smartly through the 20 DMA and overhead resistance at 94.

Euro & the yen look as if they believe the dollar has bottomed. Today the euro lost 0.45% to $1.1860 & the yen fell 0.29% to 90.69. Euro chart hides here, http://schrts.co/HcRUv0 and the yen chart here, http://schrts.co/UuqBFa

Stocks have rallied the last four days, finally boosting the S&P500 over its 50 DMA. Dow chart is here, http://schrts.co/Q6KUW0 and the S&P500 chart at this link, http://schrts.co/Q6KUW0

Today the Dow added 39.46 (0.18% to close at 21,987.56. SP500 rose 4.90 (0.2%) to 2,476.55. Assuming this uptrend continues next week, it should stop about at the last highs, leaving behind a double top. Even if stocks exceed previous tops, the end is nigh.

Ponder the Dow measured in gold, http://schrts.co/g89wUA It has now broken its uptrend line & closed several days below its 200 day moving average. A close below that yellow line, April's low will finally confirm a trend change.

The Dow in Silver chart, http://schrts.co/kmkEo3 shows a like picture. It has broken through the uptrend line, but not yet closed below the 200 DMA. A close below the April low at 1,104.98 clinches the downward reversal.

Palladium gained $49.20 today! Chart, http://schrts.co/dEjr1m makes me think more of endings than beginnings. Platinum closed above 41,000 today, up $10.50 to $1,007.30. Platinum's chart, http://schrts.co/TyGLBW does look like the beginning of something, although first it must overcome the downtrend line from 2011, now about $1,075. Notice how platinum, like silver, busted its uptrend line from 2016, but then caught and moved above it again.

Comex gold today shot up $8.30 (0.6%) to close at $1,324.50. In the aftermarket it's trading at $1,330.40. Comex silver jumped 23.9¢ (1.4%) to 1771.9¢. Aftermarket sees that at 1782¢.

Today's headline: GOLD CLOSES OVER THE 2011 DOWNTREND LINE! Look, look, http://schrts.co/TyGLBW Yes, Louise, it IS that significant. Silver back in April 2016 punched through that line, but gold has lagged. This week it proved it has beaten $1,300 resistance (that now becomes support) and remains WAY above its 200 DMA, now at $1,235. Gold's next target becomes $1,378 when it topped in July 2016.

This has just begun. Gold will make it. September will show strong progress.

Okay, I apologize in advance for this busy silver chart, http://schrts.co/gukuo2 but I want y'all to grasp the whole sweep of silver solid bottoming -- December 2015 Low, higher high in July 2016, break of the uptrend from December 2015 low with recovery, and today lurching up to the May high (1775¢). Silver floats above its 200 DMA (1705¢) and will bound through that space between it and the April high at 1866¢. Ought to reach that far at a minimum. August & September are usually very kind months for silver.

Y'all please listen to me: BE VERY CAREFUL ABOUT GOLD DEALERS. As a class, they are liable to steal the quarters off a dead man's eyes. A dealer friend showed me some trades of an 84 year old widow made with Monetary Gold. Markup on the stuff they sold her ranged from 1.52 times to 2.072 times. Those are commissions from 53% to 107%, not the bullion industry standard 3.5% or less. Women, look out! Many of these companies view widows and single women as their natural prey.

And because somebody advertises on TV or hires famous Conservative newscasters to shill for them doesn't prove their integrity. In fact, gold & silver dealers charging normal commissions can't afford TV ads.

So please check around before some smooth talking salesman turns your $200,000 investment into $95,000.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
1-Sep-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,324.50 8.30 0.6
Silver, $/oz 17.72 0.24 1.4
Gold/Silver Ratio 74.750 0.458 0.6
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0134 0.0002 1.4
Platinum 1,007.30 10.50 1.1
Palladium 981.15 49.20 5.3
S&P 500 2,476.55 4.90 0.2
Dow 21,987.56 39.46 0.2
Dow in GOLD $s 343.17 -1.51 -0.4
Dow in GOLD oz 16.60 -0.07 -0.4
Dow in SILVER oz 1,240.90 -14.71 -1.2
US Dollar Index 92.85 0.21 0.2
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,330.40      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,339.71 1,349.71 1,349.71
1/2 AE 0.50 671.35 685.16 1,370.31
1/4 AE 0.25 348.97 357.55 1,430.18
1/10 AE 0.10 141.58 144.35 1,443.48
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,294.28 1,304.06 1,330.40
British sovereign 0.24 315.52 328.52 1,395.60
French 20 franc 0.19 245.90 249.90 1,338.52
Krugerrand 1.00 1,335.72 1,345.72 1,345.72
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,334.39 1,344.39 1,344.39
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 764.98 698.46 1,396.92
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 339.25 355.88 1,423.53
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 141.02 145.01 1,450.14
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,591.90 1,592.90 1,321.14
.9999 bar 1.00 1,332.40 1,344.40 1,344.40
SPOT SILVER: 17.82      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 21.00 24.00 31.37
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 14.50 17.50 22.88
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,526.80 12,812.80 17.92
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,079.90 5,227.90 17.72
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,792.00 1,817.00 18.17
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 177.70 327.55 32.76
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.82 18.17 18.17
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.82 19.97 19.97
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,007.30      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Platinum Platypus 1.00 1,017.30 1,052.30 1,052.30
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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