The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 6 September a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

More I think about Fischer leaving the Fed, more it seems like he is cutting and running, looking forward to rotten things to come. I keep getting this mental image of an especially fat rat climbing off ship and running down the line to the dock. But durn! Y'all know I wouldn't trust a central banker with tears in his eyes, repentance on his lips, and a-handing me a free ticket to the Shrine Circus. Timeo Danaos ET dona ferentes.

I had to write y'all because the dollar index sank plumb under water today with its mouth wide open. Fell 61 basis points (0.66%) to a new intraday close (91.64) and a new intraday low (91.38). See it here,

Y'all don't write the dollar off as drownded jes' yet. The Fed might have a lung pump and defibrillator. What you see on this chart, might very well be a double bottom ready to reverse upward -- I don't know & don't presume to say. However, a close below 91.50 will signal every currency trader in the world to short dollars.

Euro closed 1.2022, up 0.86% and about to break through 120 resistance. Draghi must be having fits, or European exporters anyway. Yen shot up 0.73% to 92.21.

Lawsy mercy, stocks look sick:

How humiliatin'! Broke out of the downtrend channel last week then proved to have a hand without a single face card. Fell back on its face.

Dow lost 22.86 (0.1%) to 21,784.78. S&P500 shaved off 0.44 (0.02%) to 2,465.10.

Mercy, look at that Dow in Gold! Jes' a leetle further down, Honey, and you'll break support from last April's low about 15.8 oz.

Ok, I will candidly confess I did not expect much from silver & gold today, & I was soundly disappointed. Comex silver gained 20¢ (1.12%) to close over 1800¢ at 1801.6¢ Gold bounded $11.20 (0.84%) to $1,345.10. Gold/silver ratio fell to 74.661, right direction but still within the downtrend channel instead of punching through the bottom boundary. Here, look

Then glance at gold, Beautiful, ain't it, except look at that overbought RSI above. It's earnestly suggesting gold has travelled a bit too far too fast, & must rest. But overbought can always get overboughter.

Throw an eyeball over silver, too, RSI is overbought & silver is knocking at the top boundary of its trading channel. To the observant, that suggests some limit nearby.

With vacation planning worthy of Napoleon planning his campaign on Moscow, we have reserved a house on one of South Carolina's Sea Islands off Beaufort, right smack in the path of Hurricane Irma. Don't matter: come Saturday Morning I am climbing in my 2011 Honda Ridgeline Pickup with my youngest son Zachariah, his wife Victoria, and my youngest grandson Arthur and we are headed east for the hills of North Carolina. If Irma passes, we'll cut down through South Carolina to Beaufort; if not, I'll stay in North Carolina, clinging to any shreds of vacation I can.

By the way, that means I will not be publishing commentaries next week, 11 through 15 September. I'll miss y'all, but I'll never sparkle again unless I get some time off. Besides, I'll have almost all my children and grandchildren with me, and I'll get to spend time with them.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
7-Sep-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,345.10 11.20 0.84%
Silver, $/oz 18.02 0.20 1.12%
Gold/Silver Ratio 74.661 -0.209 -0.28%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0134 0.0000 0.28%
Platinum 1,015.30 9.70 0.96%
Palladium 955.10 16.95 1.81%
S&P 500 2,465.10 0.44 0.02%
Dow 21,784.78 -22.86 -0.10%
Dow in GOLD $s 334.79 -3.17 -0.94%
Dow in GOLD oz 16.20 -0.15 -0.94%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,209.19 -14.86 -1.21%
US Dollar Index 91.64 -0.61 -0.66%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,348.35      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,357.79 1,367.79 1,367.79
1/2 AE 0.50 680.41 694.40 1,388.80
1/4 AE 0.25 353.68 362.37 1,449.48
1/10 AE 0.10 143.49 146.30 1,462.96
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,311.74 1,321.65 1,348.35
British sovereign 0.24 319.78 332.78 1,413.69
French 20 franc 0.19 249.22 253.22 1,356.29
Krugerrand 1.00 1,352.40 1,362.40 1,362.40
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,352.40 1,362.40 1,362.40
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 775.30 707.88 1,415.77
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 343.83 360.68 1,442.73
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 142.93 146.97 1,469.70
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,613.38 1,614.38 1,338.96
.9999 bar 1.00 1,350.35 1,362.35 1,362.35
SPOT SILVER: 18.13      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 21.00 24.00 31.37
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 14.50 17.50 22.88
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,709.13 12,995.13 18.18
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 5,169.88 5,317.88 18.03
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,822.50 1,847.50 18.48
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 180.75 338.52 33.85
1 oz .999 round 1.00 18.13 18.48 18.48
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 19.13 20.28 20.28
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,015.30      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,025.30 1,060.30 1,060.30
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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