The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 21 September a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

Lo, the mad dogs of Fed infatuation were loosed on the market today. They all slobber with hydrophobic certainty that the Fed's latest action can levitate large boulders & make insane economic nostrums work. 'Tain't so, count on it. Reality will have the last word, & smile.

Yet it wasn't altogether that way. Despite the Fed's renewed but oft-shattered promise to raise rates again, the US dollar index puked back 27 basis points of yesterday's gain, closing 0.3% lower at 91.95, and below the morale-bustin' round number 92. Yesterday the dollar index managed to close above its 20 DMA (92.30) but today fell back through that mark & below 92 like a drunk with no conscience falling back into a gutter.

See with clear eyes what is happening: after a long, long avalanche, the dollar index broke the low from 2016, which definitely breaks the uptrend since 2011. A little rally is in order here, just to let the pendulum swing back the other way, but the dollar index deserves no respect at all until it climbs through 94, and not much then.

But LO, the other scrofulous fiat currencies aren't doing much better. Yen today lost 0.22% to close at 88.89. That plants I firmly below the 200 DMA (89.10) and, yes, that IS significant. Unless quickly reversed it lays a steep downward track for the yen.

Euro rose 0.4% to $1.1941 on dollar weakness but looks none to inspiring. Has built a long, narrow rising wedge since the April low & is fighting to remain above its 20 day moving average.

Here's the Dow Industrials chart, and here's the S&P500,

I'm just a ridge runner, a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee -- y'all tell ME what they mean. Both indices have broken their sharp uptrend lines. Oh, nothing dispositive appeareth yet, but the hint is in the air, as of garlic breath. Besides, why'd the stock market decline if the Fed's announcement they are going to deflate the money supply by selling bonds is such good news? Shucks, I don't know.

Comex metals today took the big hit from yesterday's high closes. Gold closed $21.40 (1.6%) lower at $1,290.60 while silver dropped 31.4¢ (1.8%) to 1693.7¢.

Well, let's look at the gold chart,

Gold closed below the $1,296 bottom of the support zone -- well, more or less. Them boundaries are right fuzzy. Glance to the left under that green support line and you'll see how much trading activity has already taken place from $1,280 to $1,300. Anyway, gold is floating a breath above its 50 DMA at $1,289.87, a frequent & likely target of bull market corrections. If that doesn't hold, well $1,280 - $1,275 isn't far below. This weakness could hang around two weeks, but I expected the low today, the day after the FOMC (rhymes with "Vomit") announcement. Still, that might take longer. What I don't want y'all to miss is that the uptrend that took hold in Dec 2015, & has accelerated since the July low, keeps on, yea, and will keep on grinding relentlessly, ineluctably, inexorably higher. This correction merely offers y'all a chance to buy more gold cheaper.

Would y'all look at silver's messy, messy chart,

Start by remembering that silver is ALWAYS more volatile and runs faster, farther up or down than stodgy old gold does. See, silver has punctured its 200 DMA (1702¢), never a good sign unless, as it often does, it marks the limit of a move. Happens to coincide nearly with lateral chart support and the uptrend line from December 2015 AND the 50 DMA (1701¢). Those are several supports working for silver against a backdrop of universal contempt -- the best thing we could hope for since nothing ever turns around until universally despised. Once again, y'all lift UP your eyes and focus on the bigger, hard-fought uptrend from silver's December 2015 low.

Y'all keep your heads. Them artillery shells they're lobbing at silver & gold are flying over our heads, not landing in the trenches. Hang on.

I hope y'all try Susan's cornbread recipe I gave y'all yesterday. I'm drooling just thinking about it.


It's well known that I love silver Maple Leaves just like mockingbirds love cats. Reason is plain: too expensive. I always go for the lowest price per ounce, not premium , because in the 37 years I've been doing this, I've learned that over time, premium always disappears.

But what if you didn't have to pay that punishing premium, more than two bucks above the price of silver rounds? At that point, I start cogitating. After all, a coin made in Canada would probably be more barterable if Trump & Yellen finally succeed in assassinating the US dollar.

One of our wholesalers called me with a large stock of IMPAIRED silver Maple Leaves. What does "impaired" mean? Not bent or holed, but dings on the edges, scratched, milky spots, discolored, or abrasions. All the silver remains.

Here's the deal: I can sell these not at $2 more than silver rounds, not at $1.50, not at $1.00, but only twenty red CENTS more than silver rounds. At that price, my resistance melts & evaporates.

Minimum lot is 200 coins, And I am going to wait for y'all to call us before we lock in a price. However, here's an estimate. With spot silver at $16.94, the most we would charge is $18.15, a 6.6% premium over silver. At the same spot, we'd charge $17.95 for generic one ounce silver rounds. At $18.15 each, a 200 piece lot of impaired silver Maples would cost $3,630.00 plus $25 shipping, a total of $3,655.00.

Reason I can't give y'all a fixed price is that I don't yet know what the spot silver price will be when you call. If silver is higher when you call, they'll cost more. If silver is lower, then less.

Remember, I am selling these as IMPAIRED silver Maple Leaves, NOT bright shining perfect. If you receive them and call me complaining they're IMPAIRED, I'll roll my eyes, draw in a deep breath, and try not to cuss because you didn't pay a lick of attention.

Here's how to order: call us at (931) 766-6066 and we will enter the order based on the current spot silver price. I have ONLY 15 lots available.

Special Conditions:

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow One week (7 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by only by phoning (931) 766-6066. Sorry, we can't ship into Tennessee or outside the United States.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Once your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation.

4. You must send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. Check just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, if you send a check you'll see your order in about one month; a wire, about a week.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
21-Sep-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,290.60 -21.40 -1.63%
Silver, $/oz 16.94 -0.31 -1.82%
Gold/Silver Ratio 76.200 0.146 0.19%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0131 -0.0000 -0.19%
Platinum 939.40 -5.50 -0.58%
Palladium 912.95 -4.10 -0.45%
S&P 500 2,500.60 -7.64 -0.30%
Dow 22,359.23 -53.36 -0.24%
Dow in GOLD $s 358.13 5.00 1.42%
Dow in GOLD oz 17.32 0.24 1.42%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,320.14 20.94 1.61%
US Dollar Index 91.95 -0.27 -0.29%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,290.30      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,298.04 1,308.04 1,308.04
1/2 AE 0.50 651.10 662.85 1,325.69
1/4 AE 0.25 328.77 335.42 1,341.69
1/10 AE 0.10 132.80 136.80 1,367.98
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,255.27 1,264.75 1,290.30
British sovereign 0.24 301.76 307.26 1,305.28
French 20 franc 0.19 238.49 243.49 1,304.18
Krugerrand 1.00 1,300.30 1,308.30 1,308.30
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,290.30 1,300.30 1,300.30
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 654.83 667.23 1,334.45
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 328.77 335.42 1,341.69
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 133.22 137.57 1,375.73
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,540.16 1,551.16 1,286.52
.9999 bar 1.00 1,292.30 1,304.30 1,304.30
SPOT SILVER: 16.95      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 21.00 24.00 31.37
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 14.50 17.50 22.88
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,901.18 12,187.18 17.05
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,821.78 4,969.78 16.85
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,669.50 1,722.50 17.23
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 167.95 172.95 17.30
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.90 17.45 17.45
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.50 18.90 18.90
SPOT PLATINUM: 939.40      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 937.40 984.40 984.40
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.