The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 28 September a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

It's a fool's business -- a nat'ral born durn Tennessee fool -- to search for reason in hearts inflamed by greed & fear, but I've got the habit now. Might as well keep trying -- dig this hole a little deeper. Hand me that shovel.

First rally upwave of the US dollar Index may have topped early today at 93.67 high. Closed down 26 basis points (0.3%) at 93.00.

Lest y'all misunderstand or lose sight of the horizon, remember to take this rally against the backdrop of a broken-down dollar index countertrend rallying after a long fall. That is, 'twill pass soon and not alter the established downtrend sucking the dollar lower and lower.

Long term, the best friends and greatest promoters of silver & gold are the world's central banks whose goofy, bizarre policies & money creation INSURE silver and gold have a bright, rising future.

Presuppositions: those are the lurking assumptions built in to thinking. And folks tend to twist and bend facts to enable them to reason back around to their presuppositions. For example, driving to Nashville this morning I was tormenting myself by listening to National Proletarian Radio, the Voice of International Socialism. Some dopey Republican congressman interviewed about Trump's tax "reform" said that "we" (Did he have a mouse in his pocket?) needed stimulus to get the economy going. Hidden & unspoken presupposition: GOVERNMENT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ECONOMY'S PERFORMANCE. Nat'ral born durn fool that I am, I whipped out my pocket constitution and couldn't find that in it ANYWHERE. Once you begin looking for the hidden presuppositions, it makes it easier to understand exactly why stuff you hear from talking heads political & medial is twisting your brain into granny knots.

Stocks oddly divergent today, a small detail may be meaningful or not. Dow rose 40.49 (0.18%) to 22,381.20, NOT a new all-time high. S&P500, on the other hand, rose 3.02 (0.12%) to a new all time high at 2,510.06 -- new by less than 3 points.

Lawsy-mercy, weepin', wailin', and gnashin' of teeth are comin'.

Silver & gold stopped falling today, well, at least for today. Comex saw silver gain a massive, magnificent 2.5¢ (0.15%) to 1677.3¢. Gold powered up $2.10 (0.16%) to $1,285.50. Ratio fell again to an end-of-day 76.49. Look at it,

Silver & gold improved in the aftermarket to $1,287 & 1682.5¢. Might be a sign of slowing fall, but 'tain't much if 'tis.

Encouraging that gold has stuck here about the 50% correction and right beneath the 50 DMA. As I mentioned yesterday, next two weeks are likely to be slow for gold silver, but that might mean sideways as well as further down. Don't panic, remain calm, take a deep breath.

On 28 September 1066 Norman William the Conqueror invaded Saxon England. He actually won, & threw the country's language into a twin confusion between Norman French and Saxon English that took several hundred years to sort out. Result was a language plumb stuffed with duplicate words -- sheep/mutton, chicken/pullet, cow/beef, woman/lady, man/male -- and a host of Latinate adjectives that make no organic sense at all. Why not "full" instead of "replete"? "Fat" rather than "obese"? But the duplication makes for great depth and richness of vocabulary unmatched by any other language. Along the way also English shed most of its Saxon inflections making it simpler & simpler to learn. Finally, the Norman/Saxon English nation went out and welded much of the world into an empire, and took their language with 'em. That's probably why so many people in the world claim to speak English. I said "claim" because I've listened to some of them. Their English is almost as fluent as my Serbian.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
28-Sep-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,285.50 2.10 0.16%
Silver, $/oz 16.77 0.03 0.15%
Gold/Silver Ratio 76.641 0.011 0.01%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0130 -0.0000 -0.01%
Platinum 921.00 -3.20 -0.35%
Palladium 928.85 10.50 1.14%
S&P 500 2,510.06 3.02 0.12%
Dow 22,381.20 40.49 0.18%
Dow in GOLD $s 359.91 0.06 0.02%
Dow in GOLD oz 17.41 0.00 0.02%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,334.36 0.43 0.03%
US Dollar Index 93.00 -0.26 -0.28%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,287.00      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,299.87 1,309.87 1,309.87
1/2 AE 0.50 649.43 661.18 1,322.36
1/4 AE 0.25 327.93 334.58 1,338.32
1/10 AE 0.10 132.46 136.46 1,364.58
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,248.90 1,261.52 1,287.00
British sovereign 0.24 300.99 306.49 1,302.00
French 20 franc 0.19 237.88 242.88 1,300.91
Krugerrand 1.00 1,297.00 1,305.00 1,305.00
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,287.00 1,297.00 1,297.00
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 653.15 665.55 1,331.11
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 327.93 334.58 1,338.32
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 132.88 137.23 1,372.33
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,536.22 1,547.22 1,283.25
.9999 bar 1.00 1,289.00 1,301.00 1,301.00
SPOT SILVER: 16.83      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 21.00 24.00 31.37
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 14.50 17.50 22.88
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,779.63 12,065.63 16.88
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,786.38 4,934.38 16.73
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,657.50 1,710.50 17.11
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 166.75 171.75 17.18
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.78 17.33 17.33
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.38 18.78 18.78
SPOT PLATINUM: 921.00      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 919.00 966.00 966.00
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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