The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 3 October a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

This is becoming merely a daily repetition of the same old tune: stocks higher, gold and silver down, general boredom. Sigh.

Dow climbed 0.37% to 22,641.67, apparently on the road to 23,000 before it succumbs. S&P500, less enthusiastic, rose 5.46 (0.22%) to 2,534.58. No change in my outlook: 10% or greater fall coming in the next two quarters.

US dollar index can't make up its mind. After a 54 basis point leap yesterday it fell back 5 basis points today to 93.41. First meaningful hurdle is resistance at 94.00, then above about 95.50. Don't get spooked by a leap through 94, if that happens. Dollar's major course remains DOWN.

Gold lost $1.20 (0.9%) to close at $1,271.50 on Comex. Silver barely flinched, losing 4/10 of a cent to 1658.1¢. Today's action says nothing, but whispers softly that the worst of the fall if past. Gold has support around $1,265, silver at 1650¢ and 1625¢.

No point in fretting. These calm periods resemble how a pilot friend described flying to me: hours of boredom punctuated by seconds of terror.

I am bewildered, however, at the reigning complacency. In spite of tornadoes, hurricanes, flooding, overbought markets, dysfunctional government, terrorism, everybody seems to just chug along unconcerned. My friend Catherine Austin Fits kept reminding me I need to read her Solari interview with Adam Twombly about entrainment technology. Entrainment technology is the use off sound or other waves to influence human brain waves, specifically to induce uncritical public "happiness" or contentment. I read it last night. You can read it here, You tell me what you think.

On 3 October 1990 West and East Germany merged into one Germany, after 45 years divided.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
2-Oct-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,272.70 -8.80 -0.69%
Silver, $/oz 16.59 -0.02 -0.13%
Gold/Silver Ratio 76.738 -0.428 -0.55%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0130 0.0001 0.56%
Platinum 911.60 -0.50 -0.05%
Palladium 912.40 5.60 0.62%
S&P 500 2,529.12 9.76 0.39%
Dow 22,557.60 152.51 0.68%
Dow in GOLD $s 366.39 4.98 1.38%
Dow in GOLD oz 17.72 0.24 1.38%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,360.12 10.99 0.81%
US Dollar Index 93.46 0.54 0.58%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,270.40      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,288.19 1,298.19 1,298.19
1/2 AE 0.50 641.05 652.80 1,305.59
1/4 AE 0.25 323.70 330.35 1,321.39
1/10 AE 0.10 130.75 134.75 1,347.48
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,232.79 1,245.25 1,270.40
British sovereign 0.24 297.11 302.61 1,285.51
French 20 franc 0.19 234.81 239.81 1,284.48
Krugerrand 1.00 1,280.40 1,288.40 1,288.40
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,270.40 1,280.40 1,280.40
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 644.73 657.13 1,314.26
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 323.70 330.35 1,321.39
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 131.17 135.52 1,355.19
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,516.40 1,527.40 1,266.82
.9999 bar 1.00 1,272.40 1,284.40 1,284.40
SPOT SILVER: 16.53      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 21.00 24.00 31.37
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 14.50 17.50 22.88
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,532.95 11,818.95 16.53
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,699.35 4,847.35 16.43
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,628.00 1,681.00 16.81
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 163.80 168.80 16.88
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.48 17.03 17.03
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.08 18.48 18.48
SPOT PLATINUM: 911.60      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 909.60 956.60 956.60
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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