The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 9 October a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

Yes, yes, yes, silver & gold posted the second confirming step of Friday's Key Reversal with higher closes again today. We're on the way.

US dollar index continues to temporize like a kid in a candy store bewildered by all the possibilities. Can't quite make up its mind to punch through that 94 resistance. Today it fell back six basis points (0.06%) to 93.56. It's trending up, and has been, but can't seem to work up courage to break out.

Stocks have reached upper wedge boundaries and faltered. Dow today lost 12.6 (0.06%) for a close at 22,761.07. S&P500 lost 4.6 (0.18%0 to 2,544.73. S&P500 chart is right here, http://schrts.co/vtdPMb

What I really want to talk about is silver & gold. Comex today witnessed silver rise 18.2¢ (1.1%) to 1691.6¢. Gold rose 0.8% to $10.20 to $1,281.80. Gold/Silver ratio obligingly fell today to 75.774.

Gets even better when you look closer. http://schrts.co/BCV6Sh

First there is the completion of that Key Reversal. Just for safety's sake we need one more day's higher close. Second, look and you'll see that gold broke out through the downtrend line that has driven it lower since early September. Y'all! All gold needs is to jump up a lousy $15 & clear that $1,300 resistance. Yea, & right there awaits also the intertwined 20 & 50 day moving averages.

Portrait is of an uptrending market that has corrected a leg up, nearly to the 200 day moving average, and now completed that correction to begin the next leg up.

Silver also paints an encouraging figure. Also completed a Key Reversal, also closed above the downtrend line. But here above aftermarket silver at 1699¢ only a few cents are the 200 DMA (1713¢) and the 50 DMA (1712¢) and the 20 DMA (1709¢). A leap through those confirms again silver's upward reversal.

Y'all listen up now, because I am only going to give this speech a few thousand more times: NEVER BUY PREMIUM. Over time, premium always disappears, so always buy the lowest cost silver or gold you can, consistent with liquidity (= ability to sell it anywhere in the world.)

For silver, today that means US 90% silver dimes, quarters, and halves minted before 1965. For gold, Austrian 100 coronas, Mexican 50 pesos, or Krugerrands. Call us at (888) 218-9226 and we will fix you up.

My daughter-in-law is half Canadian, so she asked us all over for Canadian Thanksgiving tonight. I asked another one of my children what we were having for supper and he shrugged and said, "Roast beer?" "Roast Deer, you mean," I said. "Naw, it's Canada. I think it's roast Beer."

How would I know? I go for the company anyway, not the food. Happy Thanksgiving, Canada!

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
9-Oct-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,281.80 10.20 0.80%
Silver, $/oz 16.92 0.18 1.09%
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.774 -0.215 -0.28%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0132 0.0000 0.28%
Platinum 914.40 1.50 0.16%
Palladium 929.10 9.00 0.98%
S&P 500 2,544.73 -4.60 -0.18%
Dow 22,761.07 -12.60 -0.06%
Dow in GOLD $s 367.07 -3.15 -0.85%
Dow in GOLD oz 17.76 -0.15 -0.85%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,345.53 -15.39 -1.13%
US Dollar Index 93.56 -0.06 -0.06%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,284.00      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,303.26 1,313.26 1,313.26
1/2 AE 0.50 647.92 659.67 1,319.33
1/4 AE 0.25 327.17 333.82 1,335.26
1/10 AE 0.10 132.15 136.15 1,361.49
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,245.99 1,258.58 1,284.00
British sovereign 0.24 300.29 305.79 1,299.02
French 20 franc 0.19 237.33 242.33 1,297.94
Krugerrand 1.00 1,294.00 1,302.00 1,302.00
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,284.00 1,294.00 1,294.00
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 651.63 664.03 1,328.06
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 327.17 333.82 1,335.26
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 132.57 136.92 1,369.23
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,532.64 1,543.64 1,280.28
.9999 bar 1.00 1,286.00 1,298.00 1,298.00
SPOT SILVER: 16.99      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 21.00 24.00 31.37
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 14.50 17.50 22.88
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,933.35 12,219.35 17.09
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,835.05 4,983.05 16.89
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,674.00 1,727.00 17.27
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 168.40 173.40 17.34
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.94 17.49 17.49
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.54 18.94 18.94
SPOT PLATINUM: 914.40      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 912.40 959.40 959.40
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Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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