The Moneychanger
Weekly Commentary
Friday, 13 October a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive
Here's the weekly scorecard:
  6-Oct-17 13-Oct-17 Change % Change
Silver, cents/oz. 1,673.40 1,735.50 62.10 3.7
Gold, dollars/oz. 1,271.60 1,301.50 29.90 2.4
Gold/silver ratio 75.989 74.993 -0.996 -1.3
Silver/gold ratio 0.0132 0.0133 0.0002 1.3
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$) 370.22 363.27 -6.95 -1.9
Dow in gold ounces 17.91 17.57 -0.34 -1.9
Dow in Silver ounces 1,360.92 1,317.87 -43.05 -3.2
Dow Industrials 22,773.67 22,871.72 98.05 0.4
S&P500 2,549.33 2,553.17 3.84 0.2
US dollar index 93.62 92.93 -0.69 -0.7
Platinum 912.90 945.20 32.30 3.5
Palladium 920.10 986.60 66.50 7.2

Yo! Looky, looky! Yea, this was the week silver and gold turned up and ended that correction that began early in September. Stocks scraped alone, eking out pointlets to new highs -- topping. US dollar index can't get itself in gear, tried to rally but fainted. Platinum and palladium, especially, are nuts.

Here's the US dollar index through yesterday, Today it fell back 3 basis points to 92.93. I suspect this downmove of the last 5 days is merely a correction after the first leg up, so next week we might see the dollar index actually pierce resistance at 94. However, momentum is sorry as gully dirt, and this "rally" confirms again my expectation that the dollar has broken the upturned of several years and turned down. This quasi-rally might last into December. I am not worried about a rising dollar index stymieing silver & gold, because I just don't think it has that much strength in it.

STOCKS have hit the top boundary of the rising wedge they have spent most of two years forming. See the Dow Industrials here,

I know it makes me sound like a hick & a know-nothing hayseed from Tennessee to gainsay the great & mighty on Wall Street who are calling for this central bank inflated, ancient bull market to continue, but then, I ain't trying to sell you stocks either. Y'all, this is topping action. Beware! Soon 'twill be hollering, "Every man for himself!"

Comex gold rose $8.20 (0.6%) to $1,301.50. Silver jumped 14.4¢ (0.8%) to 1735.5¢.

Gold is here,

All momentum indicators are pointing up and higher. Gold powerful gapped out of a falling wedge this week clean up to the red downtrend line from 2011 and today, finally, into the resistance that spreads from $1,295 - $1,305. For the week gold gained $29.90 or 2.4%. That is action galore! Couldn't have been prettier or more heartening. Now above about $1,360 you see the purple line that awaits. That descends from 2013, and once gold crashes that barrier it will run like a scalded dog.

Silver's chart may be found here,

All accelerator pedals are pushed down. Same vigorous performance as gold, with a gap up through resistance (green line stretches back to the Dec. 2015 low) & lateral resistance at 1725¢. Highest barrier lies at 1865¢ above (yellow line).

Everything is set up for silver & gold to rally strongly into December. What I keep repeating until y'all think I'm no more'n a natural born durn fool from Tennessee is that SILVER & GOLD HAVE BEEN RALLYING SINCE DECEMBER 2015 & ARE ABOUT TO BREAK THROUGH LONG STANDING RESISTANCE. This is a low risk buying opportunity.

Need more proof? Look at the falling gold/silver ratio,

On 13 October 1947 premiered on TV the "Kukla, Fran & Ollie" Show. I was not quite five months old. The show used a clown puppet named Kukla and a one-toothed dragon named Oliver J. Dragon or "Ollie." Fran was Fran Allison, the only human on the show. Adults as well as children adored the show, and not a single character was a vegan or Marxist.

Wow. Times sure have changed.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
13-Oct-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,301.50 8.20 0.6
Silver, $/oz 17.36 0.14 0.8
Gold/Silver Ratio 74.993 0.466 0.6
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0133 0.0001 0.8
Platinum 945.20 6.10 0.6
Palladium 986.60 11.80 1.2
S&P 500 2,553.17 2.24 0.1
Dow 22,871.72 30.71 0.1
Dow in GOLD $s 363.27 -1.77 -0.5
Dow in GOLD oz 17.57 -0.09 -0.5
Dow in SILVER oz 1,317.87 -9.24 -0.7
US Dollar Index 92.93 -0.03 -0.0
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,303.65      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,323.20 1,336.24 1,336.24
1/2 AE 0.50 657.84 669.59 1,339.18
1/4 AE 0.25 332.18 338.83 1,355.30
1/10 AE 0.10 134.17 138.17 1,381.73
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,265.06 1,277.84 1,303.65
British sovereign 0.24 304.88 310.38 1,318.54
French 20 franc 0.19 240.96 245.96 1,317.39
Krugerrand 1.00 1,313.65 1,321.65 1,321.65
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,305.65 1,318.65 1,318.65
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 661.60 674.00 1,348.00
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 332.18 338.83 1,355.30
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 134.60 138.95 1,389.52
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,560.02 1,572.81 1,304.48
.9999 bar 1.00 1,305.65 1,317.65 1,317.65
SPOT SILVER: 17.42      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 21.00 24.00 31.37
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 14.50 17.50 22.88
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,205.05 12,491.05 17.47
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,961.90 5,109.90 17.32
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,717.00 1,770.00 17.70
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 172.70 177.70 17.77
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.37 17.92 17.92
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.97 19.37 19.37
SPOT PLATINUM: 945.20      
Platinum Platypus 1.00 943.20 990.20 990.20
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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