The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 6 November a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

REPEAT: BEWARE! WARNING! Last Thursday I warned y'all about the boiler rooms selling silver & gold by telephone salesmen, and how they overcharge & overprice their wares. Another rotten example cropped up today. Salesman tried to convince the victim that the one ounce privately minted silver "commemoratives" he was selling for $59 a throw were a once in a lifetime buy.

For heaven's sake! At $17.20 spot silver you could buy 3.22 one ounce silver rounds for $59! And NO, not now, not till the end of time, will such products ever acquire enough premium to dig you out of that hole.

What a day. 'I'm about to decide I know even less than I thought I did.

Slothful US dollar index did NOT break through the downtrend line today, but instead tucked its tail between its yaller dog legs and dropped 23 basis points (0.24%) to 94.63. What a slug. If it truly stalls here and can't make it through that line, it's even weaker than I suspected.

Stocks razor-edged higher. Dow Industrials rose 9.23 (0.04%) to 23,548.42. S&P500 gained more, 0.13% or 3.29, to 2,591.13. None of this changes the outlook. Stocks will keep going up until they no longer do. Can't gauge the top of a market in mania.

Bitcoin was whacked today after Europe closed, and from the $7,423.06 high fell to close at $7,001.73.

Gold & Silver are changing my mind. If they keep falling & bouncing back, then buyers at the range's bottom are supporting the price. That belies the expectation silver & gold will drop much further. And the longer they delay to drop, the lower the risk they will drop, because both are in an overall uptrend.

Putting into the shade its leap last week, silver today leapt 40.1¢ (2.4%!) to 1719.5¢ on Comex. Notice that each of these jumps is pushing higher. Yea, a heartening sign.

And Comex Gold jumped into the fun today, too. It rose $12.90 (1.02%) to $1,279.40. No, this does not beat the $1,280 that has kept a lid on gold the last few days, but I the aftermarket it's trading at $1282. Needs only add a few nickels to punch through the 20 day moving average.

Look at silver, bless its heart: End of Day chart shows it above the 50 and 200 day moving averages and trying to poke its head through the trading range's top boundary, 1725¢.

But a louder witness still is the gold/silver ratio, Look at that! Gapped down -- again -- to hit and close near the 200 day moving average! EoD showed the close at 74.360 with the 200 DMA at 73.54.

Evidence is piling higher and higher that silver & gold will NOT fall to substantially lower lows. Yes, yes, see what tomorrow brings, I know, but today showed strong trading. Watch it.

On 6 November 1861 Jefferson Davis was elected to a six year term as president of the Confederate States of America. No, I am not ever going to relent. Still not ashamed of being a Southerner, & I'll die that way.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
6-Nov-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,279.40 12.90 1.02%
Silver, $/oz 17.20 0.40 2.39%
Gold/Silver Ratio 74.405 -1.008 -1.34%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0134 0.0002 1.36%
Platinum 931.00 12.50 1.36%
Palladium 996.50 3.60 0.36%
S&P 500 2,591.13 3.29 0.13%
Dow 2,348.42 9.23 0.39%
Dow in GOLD $s 37.94 -0.24 -0.62%
Dow in GOLD oz 1.84 -0.01 -0.62%
Dow in SILVER oz 136.58 -2.71 -1.95%
US Dollar Index 94.63 -0.23 -0.24%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,282.00      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,299.95 1,311.49 1,311.49
1/2 AE 0.50 646.91 660.23 1,320.46
1/4 AE 0.25 329.86 343.74 1,374.95
1/10 AE 0.10 138.35 140.06 1,400.59
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,247.19 1,256.62 1,282.00
British sovereign 0.24 299.82 306.73 1,303.03
French 20 franc 0.19 236.96 240.10 1,286.02
Krugerrand 1.00 1,292.00 1,300.00 1,300.00
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,286.00 1,296.00 1,296.00
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 650.62 663.02 1,326.03
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 326.66 333.31 1,333.22
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 132.37 136.72 1,367.17
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,534.11 1,546.71 1,282.83
.9999 bar 1.00 1,284.00 1,296.00 1,296.00
SPOT SILVER: 17.27      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 21.00 24.00 31.37
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 14.50 17.50 22.88
90% silver coin bags 0.72 12,062.05 12,419.55 17.37
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,917.65 5,065.65 17.17
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,717.00 1,755.00 17.55
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 171.20 179.20 17.92
1 oz .999 round 1.00 17.27 17.77 17.77
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.87 19.22 19.22
SPOT PLATINUM: 931.00      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 929.00 976.00 976.00
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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