I see that Bitcoin stands at $9,527 today, up 41% from $6,750 on 1 November 2017. Not bad for 26 days' trading. Up 855% this year..
I am reminded that on 21 January 1980 with some friends I opened a gold & silver scrap buying operation. First day we bought $30,000 worth of stuff, second day $60,000, and the third day $90,000 (1980 dollars worth 3 times 2017 dollars, remember!). We had a hypothetical 50% margin in it, that is, we would make 50% every time we sold. I did a back of the envelope calculation and figured I'd be a millionaire by year-end.
I remember the date, 21 January 1980, because later I looked back & saw that was the day silver and gold topped, at $50.35 and $861. (Silver had first crossed $10 on 27 August 1979, same day gold crossed $400.)
I believe that was also the day the silver futures exchange imposed new rules to kill the longs: no new long contracts, no new shorts, could only sell to liquidate existing longs, etc., all calculated to bail exchange members out of their losing short squeeze. Another lesson I learned along the way: Exchanges are set up to benefit their members. When the members get squeezed, they change the rules.
So we wound up with 10,000 oz of silver when refineries were backed up nine months and wouldn't fix the price until after the melt. The Comex had just fixed things so that we couldn't hedge any of that silver inventory by selling futures contracts.
By 1 May 1980 silver had fallen to $12.65, greed had consumed everybody in our operation (it even infected Susan), and we split up. Instead of a million bucks, I ended up with two bags of 90% silver.
After that blow-off it took silver 21 years to reach a bottom in November 2001 at $4.02. It lost 92% of peak value. Gold hit bottom after only 19 years, 71% lower at $253 on 25 August 1999.
Rule of thumb is that after blowing off, a market will lose 50% to 95% of peak value.
What does that say about Bitcoin? Same parabolic curve, same result. 'Tain't different this time, or any time.
The US dollar index continues to slide. Here's a chart through 24 November, http://schrts.co/mogvDx It has smashed through the uptrend line and the 50 day moving average, and now I must question whether it will even be able to reach the target implied by its upside-down head & shoulders (97). A weaker dollar calls into doubt any lower silver & gold prices. Dollar index today rose 14 Basis points (0.15%) to 92.85.
The lower dollar hath already worked wonders for the euro and yen. Euro has broken out of its down trend and stayed there two days. http://schrts.co/HcRUv0 Yen has long since broken out of its intermediate downtrend. Look http://schrts.co/UuqBFa
Stocks have stalled. Dow today rose alone, 22.79 (0.1%) to 23,580.78. S&P500 lost 1 point to 2,601.42. Both are thumping the ceiling weakly, but remember the holiday mania, the Santa Clause rally, Wall Street always expects. Might become another self-fulfilling prophecy this year.
I have just about changed my mind about silver and gold. Need higher closes to confirm it yet, but from here it seems silver & gold will NOT spike lower. Low is probably behind us, but closes above 1725¢ and $1,300 (okay, $1,297) must confirm that.
On Comex today, where they take no prisoners, silver lost 8.1¢ to close at 1702¢, clinging tooth-wise above 1700¢. Gold added $2.80 to $1,294.40.
Behold a five day gold chart, http://bit.ly/1JUd5zx You see matching double bottoms on 24 November and over the weekend, then gold's steep climb out of that $1,287 hole to challenge $1,300. Direction is UP.
The five day silver chart here, http://bit.ly/1kGK1Vz is more ambiguous than the gold chart, but still shows a rally off Friday's low. Today silver tried 1718¢ but wasn't ready yet to hold on. 1700¢ now becomes the floor. Long as silver doesn't crack that floor, trend will remain up.
Y'all know these trend changes to upward in gold and silver are only tender shoots, liable to be blasted by bad weather. But shoots they are, poking their heads through the snow. Both look more hopeful than they have for 2-1/2 months.
You may know a newly pregnant mom who is suffering from pregnancy nausea. Susan never had it with the first three, but with the last four she lived on crackers. Follow this link http://bit.ly/2ibhY5J to a great article about help for pregnancy nausea so cheap and simple you'll hardly believe it: Vitamin C & Vitamin K, or simply ginger. Be kind: forward this article to the suffering. I used to feel so sorry for Susan.
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Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger