The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 4 December a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

I think some of y'all misapprehend my opposition to the Bitcoin bubble. I always appreciate, with all humility (I work at it, I do), being corrected or having my knowledge broadened. But I feel a little like saying to some folks, "Teach your grandmother to suck eggs" when people lecture me about the value of decentralization & freedom & privacy. Might surprise y'all to find out I have been working for those things for, oh, more than six months now. Whoops. The sarcasm is seeping in.

Heaven knows, you couldn't find anyone more in favor of decentralization & eliminating financial intermediaries like banks & all the rest of the blood-sucking ticks in the financial structure, but I still ain't in favor of buying into parabolic markets. Listen: it is NOT different with the debt bubble this time, it is not different with the stock bubble, and it is not different with any other parabolic chart you want to show me. They all end the same way. Updating the ancient Greek proverb, "The mills of the market grind slow, but they grind exceedingly fine." Wait for it.

Let me throw one other thing in: I believe in REAL wealth, not paper, not virtual. The wealth of the world comes from the things men take out of the ground. All else is simply processing. I am biased: I only count as wealth REAL things, or concerns that produce REAL things. Might I miss a thousand hot speculations? I sure hope so. I got caught in the Get Rich Quick mentality once early in my life, and the outcome was so hateful, so painful, that I changed my motto to "Get Rich SLOW." Takes longer, but lasts longer, too.

Today Bitcoin rose 2.6% to $11,472.21, $291.32 higher. No top in sight yet. Bill was introduced lately in the US senate to make concealing ownership of Bitcoin a crime. The yankee government is NOT your friend.

Stocks underwent an odd day. The Dow rose 58.46 (0.24%) to 24,290.05, a new high. Most of the other indices fell. S&P500 posted a first half Key Reversal with a surge to a new high and a lower close or the day, down 2.78 (0.11%) to 2,639.44. Tech stocks also pulled down Nasdaq 1.05% on top of a rotten four days, closing below the 20 DMA. I show you the chart here, because a similar pattern appears in the Nasdaq 100, down 1.17% today and below the 20 DMA, , the Russell 2000 down 0.3% (looks more like the S&P500 chart, ) and the Wilshire 5000 (down 0.15%, ).

All these charts look wobbly, queasy, ready to turn down. But have faith, America! The tax bill will save us!

US Dollar index rose 20 basis points (0.22%) to 93.04. as y'all can see, climbing over 93 only brings the dollar index slap up against the short term downtrend line, and just above lie the 50 and 20 DMAs. Dollar will tip its hand about the near future by how it acts at this line, punching through or falling back.

Silver & gold are dead as hammers. Comex gold lost 44.50 to $1,274.30, trading in a squintzy $7.00 range. Silver lost 1.3¢ (is that really worth measuring?) to 1628.4¢ and traded in a 22¢ range.

Gold chart illustrates the frustration, Back & forth in the identical range, floating on the 200 DMA. Hard for me to shake the expectation this year will mimic the last two (2015 & 2016), posting December lows in contradiction of established seasonal pattern. Everything on this chart whispers, "Lower prices coming."

Silver continues to drive toward my target about 1610 - 1600¢.

Just be patient while the bubbles wear themselves out.

So many people have asked me I have finally given in. I will help you sell your set of sterling silver tableware you no longer want. I will either liquidate it for you into US dollars or swap it for silver bullion products, whichever you want. I warn y'all, however, not to confuse the MELT VALUE of sterling with the RETAIL PRICE. Retail price generally marks up the silver value 500% to 800%.

If you are interested, send me an email with "STERLING" in the subject line and I will respond with an email describing how you must inventory and ship things. Before you ever ship, I will give you a ROUGH (very rough) estimate of what your sterling will bring. Without seeing it in person, that's the best I can do. Please do NOT ship anything to me unbidden, as I am tetchous enough to refuse unbidden shipments.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
4-Dec-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,274.30 -4.50 -0.35%
Silver, $/oz 16.28 -0.01 -0.08%
Gold/Silver Ratio 78.255 -0.214 -0.27%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0128 0.0000 0.27%
Platinum 924.80 -14.60 -1.55%
Palladium 998.75 -21.30 -2.09%
S&P 500 2,639.44 -0.78 -0.03%
Dow 24,290.05 58.46 0.24%
Dow in GOLD $s 394.04 2.33 0.60%
Dow in GOLD oz 19.06 0.11 0.60%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,491.65 4.78 0.32%
US Dollar Index 93.04 0.20 0.22%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 125.20      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 127.20 129.39 129.39
1/2 AE 0.50 63.34 66.04 132.09
1/4 AE 0.25 31.98 33.65 134.59
1/10 AE 0.10 13.04 13.71 137.09
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 121.49 122.72 125.20
British sovereign 0.24 29.69 42.69 181.36
French 20 franc 0.19 23.14 27.14 145.37
Krugerrand 1.00 125.58 135.58 135.58
Maple Leaf 1.00 133.20 149.20 149.20
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 71.99 65.73 131.46
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 31.93 33.49 133.96
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 13.27 13.65 136.47
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 149.43 160.43 133.06
.9999 bar 1.00 125.64 137.20 137.20
SPOT SILVER: 16.25      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.50 33.33
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.00 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,189.75 11,475.75 16.05
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,602.00 4,749.00 16.10
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,605.00 1,640.00 16.40
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 164.00 169.00 16.90
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.05 16.65 16.65
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.75 19.25 19.25
SPOT PLATINUM: 924.80      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 939.80 969.80 969.80
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

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