The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 6 December a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

The Evil Empire is striking back. I understand that Bitcoin enthusiasts believe they have a currency that guarantees anonymity outside government control. However, that great Freedom Fighter US Senatoress Diane Feinstein has introduced a bill to change the definition of money to include Bitcoin and punish Bitcoin owners by making it a crime to conceal you own Bitcoin.

Folks, I'm sorry, but I have repeatedly tried to rub the stars out of the Bitcoinites' eyes with this truth: the most implacable enemy of financial freedom and privacy & sound money & the most loyal servant of the bloodsucking banks is the yankee government. They are not stupid either, and from bitter experience that nearly cost my family & me our lives and freedom, I know that they will ruthlessly exterminate any competitors to the US dollar. Only the greenest naïveté would ignore that threat. I do not even begin to explore the question whether the Deep State is involved in Bitcoin for its own duplicitous purposes. The lies are stacked on lies and packed in lies, so it's nearly impossible to unearth the truth.

It grieves me unspeakably to write this. I console myself with the memory that the builders of the Tower of Babel never finished construction, for a reason. May the same reason rescue us!

Bitcoin today reinforced its rise and negated any idea of a top by surging 15.8% or $1,852.70 to $13,548.76. Always fascinates me that bubble participants begin to believe not only that 15% a day moves are normal, but that they deserve them. O, friends! Markets are not benevolent. And in a bear market money returns to its rightful owners.

US dollar index managed to pierce that downtrend line and rose a respectable 28 basis points (0.3%) to 93.55. This is beginning to blow a headwind against silver & gold. If it weren't for bad luck, they'd have no luck at all.

Stocks faded a little today. Dow industrials lost 39.73 (0.16%) to 24,140.91. S&P500 lost a microscopic 0.3 to 2,629.27. No sign of bubble bursting yet.

Gold milimetered up $1.20 on Comex, closing at $1,262.80. Silver lost another 10.5¢ (0.7%) to 1586.8¢.

I look at the 5 day charts and the daily charts and just can't find any hint of an upward reversal yet. I went and looked at the metals' Commitments of Traders. For gold, commercial shorts are about where they were in July at the highs, and silver's show nothing like a low. Those commercial shorts reflect large speculator longs, and as long as those Longs remain optimistic, sentiment is AGAINST silver & gold. Those longs need to shrink and shrink.

In the shower this morning I was thinking -- yes, I can wash and think at the same time -- that what we are watching is really perfect for silver & gold investors. I mean a long time (since Dec. 2015) trading sideways against a tidal wave of investor disbelief, disgust, & disinterest. That washes out all the sellers and puts the metals into firm hands that aren't about to sell before the price multiplies several times. Don't bother telling me it's painful -- I've already guessed that. Still, this long slow consolidation is building a foundation for a rally that will run five years and exceed your fevered dreams.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
6-Dec-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,262.80 1.20 0.10%
Silver, $/oz 15.87 -0.11 -0.66%
Gold/Silver Ratio 79.582 0.598 0.76%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0126 -0.0001 -0.75%
Platinum 901.90 -14.40 -1.57%
Palladium 1,001.55 9.80 0.99%
S&P 500 2,629.27 -0.03 -0.00%
Dow 24,140.91 -39.73 -0.16%
Dow in GOLD $s 395.18 -1.03 -0.26%
Dow in GOLD oz 19.12 -0.05 -0.26%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,521.36 7.51 0.50%
US Dollar Index 93.55 0.28 0.30%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,262.30      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,282.50 1,304.59 1,304.59
1/2 AE 0.50 643.26 665.86 1,331.73
1/4 AE 0.25 324.78 339.24 1,356.97
1/10 AE 0.10 132.44 138.22 1,382.22
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,224.93 1,237.31 1,262.30
British sovereign 0.24 299.37 312.37 1,326.99
French 20 franc 0.19 233.31 237.31 1,271.10
Krugerrand 1.00 1,266.09 1,276.09 1,276.09
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,270.30 1,286.30 1,286.30
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 725.82 662.71 1,325.42
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 321.89 337.67 1,350.66
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 133.80 137.59 1,375.91
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,506.61 1,517.61 1,258.70
.9999 bar 1.00 1,266.72 1,274.30 1,274.30
SPOT SILVER: 15.88      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.50 33.33
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.00 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 10,925.20 11,211.20 15.68
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,492.85 4,639.85 15.73
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,568.00 1,603.00 16.03
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 160.30 165.30 16.53
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.68 16.28 16.28
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.38 18.88 18.88
SPOT PLATINUM: 901.90      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 916.90 946.90 946.90
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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