The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 13 December a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

Today I sent out lots of Susan's Flourless Christmas Cake Recipe, & of course I got questions I couldn't answer. How long to back it at 350 degrees? Till it's done. Susan used to bake them in loaf or Bundt pans. Hope y'all enjoy it!

The Fed wreaked its havoc across markets today, with odd results. The FOMC raised its discount rate 0.25%, as everyone & his house cat expected. No surprise there, but the results were not what you would call logically predictable.

Take the 10 year treasury note yield, for instance, http://schrts.co/vUJO4G It has broken out over the (red) downtrend stretching back to 2008, and working on [purple] resistance reaching back to May. So the Fed announces HIGHER interest rates, but the 10 year yield DROPS 2.25%. Only thing I can figure is that the market was speculating the FOMC would say something about more rate raises next year, but didn't. Disapppointment drove selling. Of course, logically higher interest rates imply lower gold prices, but we'll see in a minute you sure didn't get rich betting on that today.

Since the banking sector (Represented by the $BKX index) gets fat on higher rates, you'd expect the BKX to rise, too, extending its recent strength. Instead, it fell. On the $BKX:$Gold spread chart, this looks like an island reversal bottom. Behold, http://schrts.co/mDehZc Pay attention, that says great things for gold!

Stocks also acted oddly. All indices were up, except the S&P500, which posted a tiny first half of a key reversal. Dow added 80.63 (0.33%) to 24,585.43 but the S&P500 lost 1.26 or 0.05%. Go look, http://schrts.co/vtdPMb It was a break to a new high intraday with a lower close. Odd little non-confirmation gainsaying the other indices.

On the CBOE exchange spot month Bitcoin futures ended at $16,882.04, down $492.55 or 2.8%. Coindesk.com currently shows 16,677.04, off $501.06 or 2.92%. Right here in Dogwood Mudhole we are a-gawkin' at thisyere longterm Bitcoin chart, http://schrts.co/w5Z8ND and thankin', "Res ipsa loquitur," which, being translated means, "That there is a straight-up parabolic chart that has outrun the 1635 Dutch Tulip Bulb Bubble."

Folks trading the US dollar index played "buy the rumor sell the news" today and sold hard. Index fell 107 basis points (1.1%) from just over 94 to 92.99. That don't say much for the dollar. But it do promise better things for gold.

This is complicated, so y'all pay 'tention. On Comex, which closes before the Fed blowhards spout off, Gold rose $6.90 or 0.6% to $1,245.40. Silver rose 20.2¢ (1.3%) to 1578.4¢. The FOMC's later announcement sent buyers skittering into both metals. Gold leapt to $1,254.90, up 1.3% or $16.40 over yesterday's Comex close, and silver rose to 1601¢, higher than yesterday's Comex by 42.8¢ or 2.27%.

Look what that does for gold: http://schrts.co/gjva1R Clearly it's a reversal upwards today, but let's see what happens tomorrow. I am inclined to say that's it, that's the low, but caution (and the beating I've taken the last 6 months) warn me to require more confirmation for that, something in the nature of a swift attack on $1,300. I want confirmation out of the Dow in gold, too. It did hook down today, but not much. Look here, http://schrts.co/8Sv0tc However, it is most painfully overbought by every indicator, a plunge waiting for a catalyst.

Don't take much of a brain to see silver also reversed upward, http://schrts.co/o96FnV However, Remember Omar Khayyam said, "Ahh, take the cash and let the credit go, nor heed the rumble of a distant drum." That is, "Silver, now let's see if you mean it: punch on through that downtrend line just above you, the one coming down off the July 2016 high."

LISTEN UP, GOLD & SILVER SWAPPERS. NOW IS THE TIME TO SWAP GOLD FOR SILVER. Ratio has been to 80 and now has broken the uptrend. Look for yourself, http://schrts.co/kh9gOy Call us at (888) 218-9226 if you want to make that swap.

SPECIAL OFFER: We have a wholesaler glutted on GENERIC SILVER ROUNDS. These are not the Indian head nickel imitation ("Buffalo") rounds produced in recent years, but might have anything on 'em: Happy Birthday, Bon Voyage, 35th Anniversary of Paving State Route 18, etc. The impress makes not a whit of difference, they are pure silver and weigh one troy ounce.

Here's the deal: 46¢ over spot to all comers. Spot changes all the time, but with spot at $16.01, they'd cost you $16.47 each. That's 2.9% premium, but of course that percentage will change as spot silver moves up or down. We will enter orders NOT at $16.01, but at WHATEVER SPOT PRICE PREVAILS WHEN YOU LOCK IN THE TRADE -- plus 46¢. We will offer these until supply is exhausted, or until December 19, whichever comes first. To order, call (888) 218-9226.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
13-Dec-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,245.00 6.90 0.56%
Silver, $/oz 15.78 0.20 1.30%
Gold/Silver Ratio 78.877 -0.580 -0.73%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0127 0.0001 0.73%
Platinum 874.50 -0.30 -0.03%
Palladium 1,017.40 1.70 0.17%
S&P 500 2,662.85 -1.26 -0.05%
Dow 24,585.43 80.63 0.33%
Dow in GOLD $s 408.21 -0.93 -0.23%
Dow in GOLD oz 19.75 -0.04 -0.23%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,557.62 -15.02 -0.95%
US Dollar Index 92.99 -1.07 -1.14%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,244.90      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,267.31 1,286.60 1,286.60
1/2 AE 0.50 634.39 656.68 1,313.37
1/4 AE 0.25 320.30 334.57 1,338.27
1/10 AE 0.10 130.61 136.32 1,363.17
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,208.05 1,220.25 1,244.90
British sovereign 0.24 295.25 308.25 1,309.46
French 20 franc 0.19 230.10 234.10 1,253.88
Krugerrand 1.00 1,252.37 1,262.37 1,262.37
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,252.90 1,268.90 1,268.90
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 715.82 653.57 1,307.15
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 317.45 333.01 1,332.04
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 131.96 135.69 1,356.94
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,485.84 1,496.84 1,241.47
.9999 bar 1.00 1,249.26 1,256.90 1,256.90
SPOT SILVER: 16.01      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.50 33.33
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.00 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,125.40 11,411.40 15.96
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,531.20 4,678.20 15.86
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,581.00 1,616.00 16.16
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 161.60 166.60 16.66
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.81 16.41 16.41
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.51 19.01 19.01
SPOT PLATINUM: 874.50      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 889.50 919.50 919.50
Home Questions & Answers Articles & Resources
The Moneychanger, P.O. Box 178, Westpoint, TN 38486
888-218-9226

Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.