The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Thursday, 14 December a.d. 2017 Browse the commentary archive

Haste makes waste. Writing up that special offer yesterday I left out minimum order and shipping charges. Mercy. Forgive me. Let's try again.

SPECIAL OFFER: Generic Silver Rounds, not the common Indian Head nickel imitation, might have any sort of design like "Happy Retirement," "Good Luck in Swaziland," "Bungee Jumping Jamboree", etc. They are 0.999 fine silver and weigh one troy ounce.

We are selling them at 46c over spot from now until supply is exhausted or December 19, whichever comes first. We will take the prevailing spot silver price and add to it 46¢. Minimum order is 120 ounces. Shipping is $25 per order, but free over 300 ounces. To order, call (888) 218-9226.

MARKETS TODAY shot the other way to compensate for yesterday's Fed-induced overshoot.

US dollar index fell 37 basis points to 93.05, http://schrts.co/YnwCa9 . Exercising my sole gift -- Stating the Obvious -- that is NOT above 94 resistance. Dollar has still not yet answer the question about whether it intends to rally or lie down.

Euro sank 0.39% to $1.1782 but the yen rose 0.24% to 89.02. Here's that Yen chart with the gold price overlaid, http://schrts.co/CVgNda . Y'all tell me whether that jumpin', leapin' yen says anything about what gold might do.

US 10 year treasury note yield fell again today, 0.13% to 2.346% despite the Fed's discount rate increase yesterday. Remember that interest rate differentials between currencies are a prime determiner of exchange rates. Note from this chart comparing the US 10 year treasury and the German 10 year bund that the interest rate differential has been increasing in the dollar's favor since September, http://schrts.co/6aLXfW Not too surprising, then, that about the same time that differential turned up, so did the buck. The climbing differential implies it will keep on pulling the dollar up.

Stock indices fell across the board today. Dow lost 76.77 (0.31) to 24,508.66, S&P500 lost 10.84 (0.41%) to 2,652.01, Nasdaq lost 0.28%, Nasdaq 100 0.7%, & the Russell 2000 dropped 1.15% [sic].

Now 'tis only a leetle thing, but yesterday the S&P500 posted the first day of a two day Key Reversal by hitting a new high (barely) but closing lower for the day. Today it posted the second, confirming lower low. Go look for yourselves, http://schrts.co/vtdPMb

Today the Dow posted the first day of a Key Reversal, barely reaching a new high during the day, but closing lower. Before you start chortling, let these indices nail confirmation to the wall by closing lower one more day. Might now mean diddly, but let's keep an eye peeled.

CBOE Bitcoin futures ended at $16,652.75, down 743.22 or 4.27%. Coindesk.com shows a current $16,363.79.

Today what caught my eye were premiums rising ever so slightly on wholesale gold coins. Krugerrand buy side premium rose from 0.3% to 0.6% yesterday and clung there today, when the Austrian 100 corona climbed 0.25% to 99.25% and the Mexican 50 pesos from 99% to 99.4%. This grabs my attention because since spring premiums have been falling like a stone in a churn as wholesalers, covered up by incoming sales, kept lowering premiums. Premium on American Eagles, long at 2.8% sank to par with the Krugerrand, something that had NEVER before happened. Premiums are now climbing on increased retail gold demand. Just a cloud on the horizon no bigger than a man's hand, but out there waving at us.

Today Comex gold rose $8.40 to $1,253.80, but that accomplished no more than to bring it up to yesterday's aftermarket level. Gain was illusory. Silver fell back from its 1611¢ aftermarket price yesterday to close Comex at 1585¢. Yes, that was technically 6.6¢ higher than yesterday's Comex close, but down from the aftermarket. Silver could not hold on to Wednesday's late gains.

But look at the silver chart, http://schrts.co/o96FnV It stayed up today, but still closed BELOW that all-important downtrend line from the July 2016 high. Volume also did not increase today. All the same, it's a vast improvement on Tuesday's 1558.2¢ low close.

Y'all glance now at the gold chart, http://schrts.co/BZ9Rv1 MACD is trying to turn up & the RSI has turned up, but gold remains below that $1,262 support. Got to call it like it is: Let not your eye pity.

All in all, I reckon silver & gold have found their bottom for a while, and buyers below $1,238 & 1560¢ are thick as hops on the vine. That ain't 'zackly the same as saying silver and gold have reversed upward. To prove that, we have to see gold over $1,300 & silver over 1725¢. I think they are headed in that dirrection, but that's what it will take to PROVE they are rallying again. That, or lots more bottom-proof here.

I'm getting needy as a panhandler in New York, but I've got another little favor to ask. Susan and I were married 50 years ago this Saturday, 16 December. I thought I was handling her death pretty well until the anniversary came last October 11. Out of nowhere came fits of despair like those little ankle-biting feist dogs. By the grace of God I shook those off, but now another anniversary looms. I invited five of my children to come join me in a supper celebration & toast to Susan. I'd appreciate a little prayer from y'all that our anniversary would be filled with joy and joyful memories, looking forward to seeing Susan again. Thanks.

Yes, you did the math right. We did get married when we were eight years old.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
14-Dec-17 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,253.80 8.40 0.67%
Silver, $/oz 15.85 0.07 0.42%
Gold/Silver Ratio 79.104 0.201 0.26%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0126 -0.0000 -0.25%
Platinum 880.30 5.80 0.66%
Palladium 1,042.05 24.65 2.42%
S&P 500 2,652.61 -10.84 -0.41%
Dow 24,508.66 -76.77 -0.31%
Dow in GOLD $s 404.08 -4.00 -0.98%
Dow in GOLD oz 19.55 -0.19 -0.98%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,546.29 -11.33 -0.73%
US Dollar Index 93.18 0.19 0.20%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,252.00      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,273.28 1,293.94 1,293.94
1/2 AE 0.50 638.01 660.43 1,320.86
1/4 AE 0.25 322.13 336.48 1,345.90
1/10 AE 0.10 131.36 137.09 1,370.94
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,218.01 1,227.21 1,252.00
British sovereign 0.24 296.93 309.93 1,316.62
French 20 franc 0.19 231.41 235.41 1,260.90
Krugerrand 1.00 1,259.51 1,269.51 1,269.51
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,260.00 1,276.00 1,276.00
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 719.90 657.30 1,314.60
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 319.26 334.91 1,339.64
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 132.71 136.47 1,364.68
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,500.35 1,511.35 1,253.51
.9999 bar 1.00 1,256.38 1,264.00 1,264.00
SPOT SILVER: 15.83      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 22.50 25.50 33.33
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 15.00 18.00 23.53
90% silver coin bags 0.72 10,960.95 11,246.95 15.73
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,478.10 4,625.10 15.68
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,563.00 1,598.00 15.98
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 159.80 164.80 16.48
1 oz .999 round 1.00 15.63 16.23 16.23
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 17.33 18.83 18.83
SPOT PLATINUM: 880.30      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 895.30 925.30 925.30
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

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