The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Wednesday, 3 January a.d. 2018 Browse the commentary archive

Silver & gold rose a little today, but their feet are tangled in resistance. Dollar index may have turned up. Stocks made new all-time highs. Bigfoot was sighted at a public library in northwestern Washington using a computer to buy Bitcoin.

CME Bitcoin futures closed $1,975.00, up $120 or 0.8%. now shows $14,852.77, up $112.02 or 0.76%. Lesser cryptocurrencies are jumping higher, a symptom seen in late stage bubbles known technically as "cats and dogs flying."

Grab a look at the US dollar index, Observe that it not only failed to follow through upward with that early November breakout from an upside down head and shoulders, but it also fell and fell and fell until yesterday it nearly reached the bottom of the head at 91. From that 91.56 it rose 32 basis point (0.35%) to 91.88. Crashing through that line connecting the shoulders finally smashes any upward implication of the upside down H&S. However, the dollar has been doing the same thing so long -- tumbling -- that you begin to expect the opposite, if for no other reason than no scrofulous, scurvy, evil parasitic bank-credit fiat currency drops forever. Every dog has his day -- woof, woof.

Let us take the S&P500 as a proxy for stocks today. Voila: Overbought as it is (look at the RSI above), it none the less scrabbled, scratched, & clawed its way back through the uptrend line and back into the uptrend. Volume is rising, MACD turning up, so this rise isn't over yet.

S&P500 today made a new all time high at 2,713.06, up 17.25 or 0.64%. Dow Industrials likewise made a new high, 24,922.68, up 98.67 (0.4%). This looks like late stage of topping.

Dow in gold, has plunged through its 20 DMA and short term uptrend line. This is not a feint, as all indicators call for continuing this fall.

Comex gold added $2.50 or 0.2% while silver rose 6.4¢ (0.4%) to 1718.5¢.

Five day charts for silver & gold suggest they have reached resistance ($1,320 & 1725¢) where they much pause a little bit to blow and breath before continuing up the mountain. Both have enjoyed a long upward run, both are due for a small correction.

How small is small? Here's silver's chart, Candidate targets include 1698¢ and 1680¢. But watch it: a close above $1730¢ tomorrow would nix that.

Gold's chart,, shows it boring doggedly through that downtrend line. However, $1,318 - 1,320 is resistance. If gold stumbles, $1,300 would probably catch it.

Misinterpret ye not my comments: after a long up-run, silver and gold have earned a breather. however, if they blast through resistance tomorrow, then I am underestimating the strength under them. Five day charts whisper silver and gold topped for the short term on Tuesday and the Dollar index may have short term bottomed. However all that sorts out, the overall trend for silver & gold in January is onward and upward!


US 90% silver HALF dollars minted before 1965 contain the same 715 ounces of fine silver per $1,000 bag as quarters or dimes, BUT they usually carry a premium from $200 to $750 a bag. That makes no sense to me, but then I don't mind counting coin badly enough to pay extra for halves.

Halves come in three designs: Walking Liberty ("Walkers," 1916-19470, Franklins (1948-1963), and Kennedys (1964). I don't have any Walkers for this special offer, but they're the most worn anyway.

Today when I checked one wholesaler the premium on half dollars ranged from $200 to $570 a bag, depending on the type.

So here's the deal: FRANKLIN OR KENNEDY HALVES AT NO PREMIUM over dimes or quarters. You pay about the same as you'd pay for dimes or quarters.

With Spot Silver at $17.15, a bag of halves ($1,000 face value or 2,000 coins) would cost $12.591. That's 46¢ an ounce over spot silver (divide $12.591 by 0.715 oz & you'll see, about 2.7% over spot silver value. Here are the conditions.

** DO NOT email us. Please phone us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066 to enter an order.

** Price will be based on the spot silver price then current, higher or lower than the example above.

** Minimum order is one-quarter bag or $250 Face Value. Using the $12.591 price example above, a quarter bag would cost $3,147.79.

** Orders in quarter bag increments only: $250 FV or $500 FV or $1,000 FV or more.

** Order a whole bag, $1,000 face value, and we knock $100 off the bag price.

** Shipping on a quarter bag is $25, but for a half bag or more shipping is included.

** OUR CHOICE of Franklin or Kennedy halves.

** Offer is good ONLY until our wholesaler's supply is exhausted.

** If you get voice mail, it means our lines are clogged. Leave your name, address, phone number, & email & how much 90% coin you want you want. We'll call you back quickly with the order written.

The following other conditions apply

Special Conditions:

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow one week (7 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by telephone only at (931) 766-6066. Phone orders only, please. Sorry, we can't ship into Tennessee or outside the United States.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Once your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation.

4. You must send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. Check just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards.

5. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow Seven (7) days for personal checks to clear before we ship.

Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, if you send a check you'll see your order in about one month; a wire, about a week.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

Your source for gold and silver. Read our latest reviews and testimonials.
Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
3-Jan-18 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,316.20 2.50 0.19%
Silver, $/oz 17.19 0.06 0.37%
Gold/Silver Ratio 76.590 -0.140 -0.18%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0131 0.0000 0.18%
Platinum 957.80 14.00 1.48%
Palladium 1,086.00 -4.00 -0.37%
S&P 500 2,713.06 17.25 0.64%
Dow 24,922.68 98.67 0.40%
Dow in GOLD $s 391.43 0.81 0.21%
Dow in GOLD oz 18.94 0.04 0.21%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,450.26 0.34 0.02%
US Dollar Index 91.88 0.32 0.35%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,312.60      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,332.29 1,356.57 1,356.57
1/2 AE 0.50 668.92 692.40 1,384.79
1/4 AE 0.25 337.74 352.76 1,411.05
1/10 AE 0.10 137.72 143.73 1,437.30
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,273.74 1,286.61 1,312.60
British sovereign 0.24 311.30 324.30 1,377.67
French 20 franc 0.19 242.61 246.61 1,320.90
Krugerrand 1.00 1,320.48 1,330.48 1,330.48
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,320.60 1,336.60 1,336.60
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 754.75 689.12 1,378.23
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 334.71 351.12 1,404.48
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 139.14 143.07 1,430.73
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,570.60 1,581.60 1,311.77
.9999 bar 1.00 1,307.60 1,325.60 1,325.60
SPOT SILVER: 17.15      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 21.00 24.00 31.37
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 14.50 17.50 22.88
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,904.75 12,190.75 17.05
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,867.50 5,014.50 17.00
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,695.00 1,730.00 17.30
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 173.00 178.00 17.80
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.95 17.55 17.55
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.40 19.15 19.15
SPOT PLATINUM: 957.80      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 972.80 1,002.80 1,002.80
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Copyright Notice

© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

Other Important Information

This is not an offer to buy or sell. Prices subject to change without notice. To enter an order, call us at (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066. Sorry, no sales to Tennessee.

For complete details on how to buy from us or sell to us, please click here.