The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Monday, 8 January a.d. 2018 Browse the commentary archive

If you were looking for a lot of excitement today, you wasted your money buying a ticket. Stocks flatlined, metals backed off, and only in currencies was their enough excitement to raise the pulse.

US dollar index rose 47 basis points (0.4) to 92.09. Considering how oversold it has been, that's not much of a surprise. Still, this chart (Missing today's close) suggests no more than a potential bottom. Must better 92.25 before it will be taken seriously. But given gold and silver's present vulnerability sitting just under resistance, even that little dollar rise was enough to cause them trouble.

The euro, has a respectable rally going, but the last two days' dollar strength have punched it full of holes -- or gaps. Uptrend that began in November has not been gainsaid, though.

The yen has a sort of crippled uptrend running, well, at least a series of rising lows, No upside jubilation yet, just forming a base.

Stocks were lazy today. Dow lost 12.87 (0.05) to close at 25,283.00 but the S&P500 rose a small 4.56 (0.17%) to 2,747.71. Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all rose, but only a sniff.

Comex silver lost 14.1¢ (0.8%) to close at 1706.4¢, driven back in shame from 1725¢ resistance. Gold backed up $1.70 (0.13%) to $1,318.60. Similar symptom, similar disease: fell back from $1,325-ish resistance.

The Gold/silver ratio chart here pictures the problem. Ratio jumped up to 77.274 (basis Comex close) today, above the 50 day moving average. Along with its upturning indicators calling for a higher price, that whispers silver & gold have a correction coming. Likely that correction will be brief and won't reach lower than $1,300 - $1,280. Silver might hit 1680¢ - 1650¢.

Course, I'm jes' a nat'ral born durn fool and might be deceived. Silver & gold would evidence that deception by closing strongly after their recent highs. Otherwise it's a quick correction.

Today is January 8. Twenty-eight years ago tomorrow federal agents descended on my house like evil rain and hail, arresting Susan and me and 24 others charged in what they called a "conspiracy." You can read about it here, "The Most Dangerous Man in the Mid-South." That's me, by the way. Obviously federal prosecutors don't get out much if I looked like the most dangerous.

What was more cruelly ridiculous was charging Susan. Home-scooling mother of seven? When would she have time to conspire? After midnight? And they well knew that she didn't work in my business except occasiionally in a secretarial capacity, but they indicted her to get me to plead guilty. They wasted an indictment. Se never once opened her lovely lips in complaint or recrimination.

They came on us with an army of thugs, money without limit, lying without conscience, and corrupt courts. They came in power, they slunk away in feebleness exactly a year and a half later. They came upon us to eat up our flesh, but they stumbled and fell.

After spending either $900,000 or $19 million (we heard both numbers and the higher is more believable) on the investigation and trial, after a five month trial, on 9 July 1991 the jury pronounced all the defendants who had held on (16) NOT GUILTY on all counts.

I notice today that a federal judge dismissed charges against Cliven Bundy with prejudice because of prosecutorial misconduct: federal prosecutors withheld exculpatory evidence. Their answer was that they gave the Bundys more documents in discovery than in any other case ever. This is their other ploy besides withholding exculpatory evidence: burying the defendant in a mountain of pointless discovery. Courts and prosecutors haven't changed since our ordeal, they've gotten worse.

But at the bottom not even that, as evil as it is, matters. The day we were arrested all seemed loss and hopelessness: they had everything on their side that money & muscle could supply, we had hope, and prayer, and psalms, and the truth.

God's power is perfected in weakness. When we are weak, he is strong. Out of his great mercy he delivered us, although had he allowed us to go to prison, he would still have been God, and still merciful. To God alone be the glory!

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
8-Jan-18 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,318.60 -1.70 -0.13%
Silver, $/oz 17.06 -0.14 -0.82%
Gold/Silver Ratio 77.274 0.534 0.70%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0129 -0.0001 -0.69%
Platinum 972.30 1.10 0.11%
Palladium 1,098.55 14.30 1.32%
S&P 500 2,747.71 45.60 1.69%
Dow 25,283.00 -12.87 -0.05%
Dow in GOLD $s 396.36 0.31 0.08%
Dow in GOLD oz 19.17 0.01 0.08%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,481.66 11.39 0.78%
US Dollar Index 92.09 0.37 0.40%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,319.40      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,333.91 1,363.60 1,363.60
1/2 AE 0.50 672.38 695.98 1,391.97
1/4 AE 0.25 339.49 354.59 1,418.36
1/10 AE 0.10 138.43 144.47 1,444.74
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,280.34 1,293.28 1,319.40
British sovereign 0.24 312.92 325.92 1,384.52
French 20 franc 0.19 243.87 247.87 1,327.63
Krugerrand 1.00 1,326.00 1,336.00 1,336.00
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,327.40 1,343.40 1,343.40
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 758.66 692.69 1,385.37
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 336.45 352.94 1,411.76
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 139.86 143.81 1,438.15
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,578.74 1,589.74 1,318.52
.9999 bar 1.00 1,314.40 1,332.40 1,332.40
SPOT SILVER: 17.09      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 21.00 24.00 31.37
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 14.50 17.50 22.88
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,751.03 12,037.03 16.84
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,848.33 4,995.33 16.93
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,688.50 1,723.50 17.24
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 172.35 177.35 17.74
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.89 17.49 17.49
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.34 19.09 19.09
SPOT PLATINUM: 972.30      
Plat. Platypus 1.00 987.30 1,017.30 1,017.30
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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