The Moneychanger
Daily Commentary
Tuesday, 16 January a.d. 2018 Browse the commentary archive

Today may have been the day the Stock market topped, nearly exactly on the 17th anniversary of the 14 January 2000 top.

Why do I say that? Dow was up early in the day nearly 283 points, but closed 10.33 (0.4%) lower. S&P500 acted similarly, ending down 9.82 (0.35%) at 2,776.42.

Gap up, advance into new high territory but closing lower on the day? First half of a key reversal. Lower close next two days cinches it.

Bitcoin tanked today on news out of Korea and China that threatens more government choking. CME futures closed $11,160, down $2,785 or 20%. Coindesk.com shows $10,432.65, down $3,153.2 or 23.2%. Revenge of the parabolic chart.

US dollar index continues it's breakdown slide. Closed the day down 39 basis points (0.43%) at 90.20. Much lower dollar on the way.

Gold rose $2.00 on Comex to $1,335.40. Silver added 5.3¢ to 1712.2¢.

Gold is living on borrowed time, shuffling it's feet without moving higher. A correction is due. Wholesale premium on gold American Eagles sank to 0.4% over spot, lower than Krugerrands at 0.5%, lower by 1.5% in about 10 days. Only one explanation: lots of selling by customers (and maybe dealers) who are taking this long awaited rise as occasion to cash out. That argues that gold needs a correction. Look at the overbought RSI, http://schrts.co/EyDoou

The crucial resistance is lies at $1,350 - $1,360. Should I be wrong, gold will swiftly climb above that and scat higher. Otherwise, it will correct.

Silver slipped today to 1680¢, but caught footing and ended higher. Still, it didn't end above 1725-1735¢. http://schrts.co/o96FnV

Listen to me: bubbles are bursting. Bond bubble is bursting, too. Hold on to your silver and gold and turn loose of those bubbles. Please, oh, please.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.

— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

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Market Snapshot See more charts and market data
16-Jan-18 Price Change % Change
Gold, $/oz 1,335.40 2.00 0.15%
Silver, $/oz 17.12 0.05 0.31%
Gold/Silver Ratio 77.993 -0.125 -0.16%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0128 0.0000 0.16%
Platinum 1,000.20 9.00 0.91%
Palladium 1,090.80 -17.20 -1.55%
S&P 500 276.42 -9.82 -3.43%
Dow 25,792.80 -10.33 -0.04%
Dow in GOLD $s 399.27 -0.76 -0.19%
Dow in GOLD oz 19.31 -0.04 -0.19%
Dow in SILVER oz 1,506.41 -5.28 -0.35%
US Dollar Index 90.20 -0.39 -0.43%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD: 1,337.40      
GOLD Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
American Eagle 1.00 1,342.75 1,382.20 1,382.20
1/2 AE 0.50 681.56 705.48 1,410.96
1/4 AE 0.25 344.12 359.43 1,437.71
1/10 AE 0.10 140.32 146.45 1,464.45
Aust. 100 corona 0.98 1,297.81 1,310.92 1,337.40
British sovereign 0.24 317.19 330.19 1,402.66
French 20 franc 0.19 247.20 251.20 1,345.45
Krugerrand 1.00 1,342.75 1,352.75 1,352.75
Maple Leaf 1.00 1,345.40 1,361.40 1,361.40
1/2 Maple Leaf 0.50 769.01 702.14 1,404.27
1/4 Maple Leaf 0.25 341.04 357.75 1,431.02
1/10 Maple Leaf 0.10 141.76 145.78 1,457.77
Mexican 50 peso 1.21 1,596.25 1,607.25 1,333.04
.9999 bar 1.00 1,332.40 1,350.40 1,350.40
SPOT SILVER: 17.16      
SILVER Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 1905 0.77 21.00 24.00 31.37
VG+ Peace dollar 0.77 14.50 17.50 22.88
90% silver coin bags 0.72 11,729.58 12,015.58 16.81
US 40% silver 1/2s 0.30 4,868.98 5,015.98 17.00
100 oz .999 bar 100.00 1,695.50 1,730.50 17.31
10 oz .999 bar 10.00 173.05 178.05 17.81
1 oz .999 round 1.00 16.96 17.56 17.56
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min 1.00 18.41 19.16 19.16
SPOT PLATINUM: 1,000.20      
PLATINUM Fine Tr.Oz. BID ASK $/oz
Plat. Platypus 1.00 1,015.20 1,045.20 1,045.20
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© 2015 Little Mountain Corporation, d.b.a. The Moneychanger. All rights reserved. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

Warnings and Disclaimers

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary trend is up, targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stock's primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 16 ounces of silver. US$ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Be advised and warned:

  • Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short-term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
  • NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
  • NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
  • NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
  • What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. For additional information, please see our Ten Commandments for Buying Gold and Silver.
  • One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Explanation of Terms

The US DOLLAR INDEX is the average exchange rate for the US dollar against the Euro, Yen, Pound sterling, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Krona, weighted for each country's trade with the US. It gives a general measure of the US dollar's performance against all other currencies.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS measures the Dow Jones Industrial Average in gold dollars (0.048375 troy oz. by law). The DiG$ depicts the Primary (20 year) Trend of stocks against gold. When the DiG$ is dropping, gold is gaining value against stocks in a trend that should last 15-20 years. The DiG$'s chart is identical to the Dow in ounces of gold, but gives us one unvarying measure all the way back to 1896. Because it shows the primary trend ("tide") of gold against stocks, for investors it is the single most important financial chart in the world today. Since its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.8 ounces), the DiG$ has trended down, targeting a G$80-G$20 (4-1 oz. of gold will buy the whole Dow).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy the entire Dow. The DiSoz is trending down with a target of under 36 ounces.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is the gold price divided by the silver price, and shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Ratio shows us the Primary (20 year) Trend of gold's value against silver. When the Ratio's trend is dropping, silver is gaining value against gold. This trend targets a gold/silver ratio of 16 ounces of silver to one of gold within the next 5-10 years. That implies that silver will massively, vastly outperform gold before this bull market ends. When both metals are rallying, the ratio often (but not always) drops, confirming the rally.

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